Trump's back at it again-threatening our top oil supplier, Canada, with crippling 100% tariffs unless they ditch the deal they made with China⸺week before last.
Beijing, People’s Republic of China
Prime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People’s Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and trade" [link]
First question: why this, why now? Not sure what Trump has up his sleeve this time, but my thoughts include:
- This is an attempt to pivot away from the 24/7 media coverage of the civil unrest at home (in Minnesota)?
Latest deadly shooting by federal agents pushes government closer to shutdown (fortune.com)
- Attempting to help Elon, by cutting China out of the already failing EV market?
- Is Trump trying to put a halt on the, "Sell America"/ invest in Europe, trade? If so, this may only be the beginning, of things to come. Remember: Macron is literally in Beijing right now begging Xi to buy more overpriced Bordeaux and Airbus parts so France doesn’t implode first. [link]
Dow Jones Futures: Trump Threatens 100% Canada Tariff, Government Shutdown Risks Spike; Earnings Wave Looms (Investors.com)
Possible Trades on The Latest Trump Bluster
Crude Oil/ Energy
We've already seen oil breakout several times, ahead of this news - probably on government insider trading (totally legal) - but I think we could see a spike in Sunday futures, as the algos are triggered.
$USO (US Oil) DCS chart - shows a gap left behind on Friday, and several possible upside targets.
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| US Oil Chart |
On Top of All This The Fed Renders Their Decision This Week
The next FOMC announcement is in the spotlight, and barring a rate hike or talk of a rate hike (probability .02%) the market is going to take it as an all clear to window dress the end of the month. Remember this sets the tone for the entire year.
Not To Mention Tech Earnings:
- Tuesday: Boeing, Kimberly $KMB, $NOC $UNH, Seagate $STX, $TXN (after the close)
- Wed: $AEM, Corning $GLW, $GD, Lam Research $LRCX, $META, $MSFT, $TSLA
- Thursday: Altria $MO, $CAT, $MA, $SAP, $SHW, $AAPL, Sandisk $SNDK, $WDC
- Friday: Chevron $CVX, Colgate $CL, Verizon $VZ, $XOM
NASDAQ Breaks out - on a 60 min chart view - and now the same geniuses who told you the rally was broadening out, and to "invest in China, and Europe" , are now looking for mag 7 leadership, just as I said...
Short term bullish? Not sure—algos could chase the Nasdaq breakout, oil might gap higher on Sunday futures drama, and a dovish Fed hold (near-zero hike odds) might green-light window dressing into month-end. But long term? No way. We've seen too many headfakes lately, and now this Trump bluster that could fizzle into nothing—or escalate into real supply shocks.
Stay nimble, because I'm still expecting to rally above $SPS 7000, led by Mag7 (of course), but try not to be left holding the bag.
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