Page menu

Sunday, March 15, 2026

How Operation Epic Fury Turned Into Operation Epic Market Failure

The broader market continues to form cracks, just as we saw ahead of Passover/Easter, this same time last year. Only this time: terrifying tariff terror, has been swapped for Iran war jitters.
War Coverage and Oil Inflation Fear Dominate The News But Financials Lead Declines 

The chorus of disapproval for private credit gets louder as Morgan Stanley fund is the latest to cap withdrawals (marketwatch.com)  

That's the same Morgan Stanley who spent months trying to convince everyone that we were seeing a healthy "broadening out" of the economy, when nothing could be further from the truth. Crickets from incessant market pumping Morgan Analyst Mike Wilson. 

Who else has gone radio silent? The long-time zombie bank enthusiasts at CNBC's Fast Money.
 
Who was pounding the bear drum on US zombie banks, all the way back in December? Yours truly: Santa Rally Cancelled: Merry Festivus to All  Dec. 24th '25 [link]      

$DJUSFN - 7 slightly higher all time highs vanish, as US financials have given back all their gains for the year ('26). Note the light volume we saw going into 2025 window dressing season, followed by the heavy selling volume we've seen all throughout '26.  

While headlines scream oil and war, financials quietly bled out all of this year's gains—classic smoke and mirrors. 

The Rest of World Bubble I Warned You About Also Popping

$VFWSX All-World ex-US Index - In free fall. It looked like it might crawl back above the stop-hunt line and stage a rally on Friday, but that wasn't in the cards. If global markets continue to crash, then the 200 day moving average comes into focus. 

$VFWSW All World ex-US

February OPEX Friday: The Final Tim Seymour Pump Was The Kiss Of Death 

$IDVO Amplify International Enhanced Dividend Income  

Note: Capital Wealth Planning LLC (CWP) and Seymour Asset Management LLC serve as investment sub-advisers to the Fund.

Let’s be clear — Tim Seymour openly uses his CNBC platform to pump $IDVO, the very fund where his own firms (Capital Wealth Planning and Seymour Asset Management) serve as sub-advisers. Conflict of interest, anyone?

The Major indices including the Nasdaq are testing the 200 day SMA, and there's a good chance we see the rug pulled below that level in Sunday evening futures... - in order to take out some stops - but as long as the $VIX doesn't start breaking out again, I think we can expect to see the end of the quarter window dressed, unless Morgan Stanley wants more redemptions, as private credit loan losses spiral.   

Mag 7 stocks were sold at the 200 day SMA on Friday, and if the selling continues that's bound to pull the $SPX lower. 

Operation Epic Fury Has Turned into Operation Epic Failure 

  • US/ Israeli bombing campaign slows 
  • Iranian regime as defiant as ever
  • Iran supreme leader replaced by the far more radical son...   
  • Russian sanctions weakened
  • US Oil reserve depleted 
Trump claims Iran "wants to make a deal", but watch for Trump to turn tail, and chicken out again. #TACO    

Last year's ridiculous selloff was followed by one of the biggest short squeezes in Nasdaq history, so you better keep your guard up. $VIX in the upper 20s equates to 1000 point (2%) moves on the Dow, and the $VIX at these levels works in both directions. 

Take Care, AA  




Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Yesterday's Bullish Reversal: Sustainable or Not?

With the $VIX still trading in the mid 20's it's still too soon to say if yesterday's rally is sustainable, but there's a very good chance it is: 

  • The $VIX breakout to 35.3 was quickly faded
  • Algos were triggered to buy the Nasdaq at the 200 day SMA
  • Oil plummets, after an insane 2 day flash surge. Did I warn you not to play with fire? 
  • Social media is no longer dominated by prolonged Iran war fear porn = a sentiment shift

Let's Get Right to The Charts 


Dow Jones Trump 47 (as in 47,000) support - as called out over the weekend  [link]  
Trump 47 Chart
$COMPQ Nasdaq Composite bounces out of the hole - still trading in a sideways range 

NASDAQ DCS Chart 

$JMGMX (JP Morgan Mid Cap Growth) trading in a downturned wedge, or triangle, aka a pennant pattern. You decide...  

$JMGMX chart 


Looking At The Calendar 
1. Don't Forget March is a Window Dressing Month 

2. The Next FOMC Meeting In Focus 1 Week From Today - kicks off on St. Patrick's day -watch for floor traders to be knocking back some Jameson shots, as they watch their puts evaporate. 

3. March Options Expiration on the 20th 

4. Passover Start April Fools Day with a Full Moon - that could be interesting 😅 


Expect volatility to remain high for the next several days. Add on the dips, roll with the punches. 

Need accurate $VIX targets? I got 'em. $100 - Price is non-negotiable    


Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

From Operation Epic Fury To Apocalypse Tehran To The Armageddon Trade

I don't know about you, but I never grow tired of winning: 


  • October, '25 I called out the SPX 7000 target referring to it as a psychological target, and a bad omen... [link] 
  • Dec. 9th, '25 I flagged the talking heads hosted an endless parade of perma-bulls trying to convince us that we are seeing a broadening out of the economy-calling it out as absolute BS [link] 
  • Even as recently as Friday, Feb. 28th - ahead of the second bombing campaign against Iran (Epic Fury) - I called out the a-holes who were trying to tell us that $VIX 19 was nothing to be concerned about, and now here we are, with $VIX threatening to breakout above 30. 

To refresh your memory: The last time the $VIX crossed the 30 it triggered the April '25 collapse, and this is beginning to look like a repeat. 




The Stage is Already Being Set for Another Volmageddon Unwind 

Read What Is Volmageddon? Why Record Options Trading Could Risk Another 20% Stock Crash (forbes.com) 

I've warned on the subject of Volmageddon many times, and explained what led to it, in my April 10th, 2018, FACE Interview 

Video already cued up: 


A Tale of Volmageddon - Revisiting Volmageddon 1.0 - Preparing for Volmageddon 2.0 - Danger Signs Ahead? [link]

The short sellers of the $VIX were hosed again on Friday, as the rug was predictably pulled below their stophunt! 

If we do see a repeat of what we saw last year, you can bet stocks are going to snap right back, and squeeze the short-sellers into the next breakout, because guess what - spoiler - this is only a dress rehearsal for the Armageddon Trade.       

I still say the biggest unwind is coming in energy markets, because this is where speculators have positioned themselves, as they are certain Trump doesn't have an exit strategy. Just as they believed Trump was going to destroy the global economy with his tariffs. 

The Pivot from Operation Epic Fury to $30 Crude  

Maybe Oil takes out the $100 (psychological target) and hangs up in that range for several weeks, but then I'd expect the cost of a barrel of Oil to immediately plummet back the mean - around $30. Oil drillers have also been driven to the moon, just as Airlines were... just in order to sell them again. In fact the whole broadening out narrative was used as another excuse to pump and dump stocks in yet another massive sector rotation. We've seen this playbook 100 times. Last time we saw a Trump trade taken out with the trash like this was the massive 202 Crypto rally, they first attributed to Trump, then "stable coin". Remember that bridge in Chicago... yeah it's still for sale - CALL ME! 


Trump 45/47 Targets Spotted on the Dow Jones 

NASDAQ continues to Trade At The Same Level It Was Trading in For the Past 5 Months 

 That probably comes as a shock to those who only watch the $SPX, and the $SPY, but now that the broadening out narrative is put to rest, the Nasdaq takes center stage as (still) only market that matters.  


Be vigilant, and have a plan if the $SVXY is used to trigger another Volageddon event, but don't miss another spring rally, which at this point looks like it could extend all the way into the summer.  

P.S. Buy & Hold is Still Dead. Pump n' Dump - Rinse n' Repeat 



Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Mideast War Pops the Global Balloon: Oil/Energy Soar - Your Technical Tuesday Playbook

It apparently takes a regional war in the Mideast to finally pop the balloon on global markets, but that's how the cookie crumbles–at least we got the snapback rally I alerted to on Sat. [link] 

Different story same playbook - no lockdown virus this time:  

  • Rug is pulled at market highs - From Germany to Australia, to Japan 
  • Monday morning surprise at the end of the month (Feb.) - cycles  
  • Sector rotation into energy continues - this sell off may be different but it rhymes 

$SPX is still trading in the same sideways range we've been stuck in for 4 months. 

Energy markets have been anticipating Operation Epic Fury for months it seems, with $USO up +25% off the Dec. lows

We may have just seen capitulation in that space—check the massive selling volume on $ERY (2X energy bear). You don't think anyone would be dumb enough to sell this bear fund short? I do...  

$ERY rug pull on record volume


Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed on Russian media. 

Take that war propaganda for what it's worth:  

 1. US is self sufficient. 

2. There is an oil glut. 

3. Supply isn't affected until the strait is shut down for 30 days. 

4. Oil is in a long term bear market.

5. Iran lies all the time 

What Else Was Up Yesterday? US Tech Stocks Rally with The US Dollar 

That's right just as CNBC Fast Money clowns told you to invest in Chinese Tech US tech leads, and the safe haven trade becomes the same currency (the $USD) the gold bugs warned you about. 

MAG7 Stocks Trade to 2 week highs after Having Their Best 1 Day Run In 50 Days- crickets 🦗 from the rotten msm - too busy rooting for the oil inflation trade, I guess. 

Didn't I tell you these vermin would root for the enemy, and this is only day 3. 

Trading Tip of the Day: Know how to set a stop loss if you're going to dabble in commodities trading 

P.S. The Broadening Out Economy Trade Final Nail Driven Into the Heart of the False Narrative    




Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, February 28, 2026

US Launches Operation Epic Fury on Iran - How Will Markets React?

 
US Israel Launch Attack on Iran timesnownews.com
Over the weekend: US launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, with the help of Israel:
  • $VIX (fear gauge) has been riding high for weeks.
  • Crude Oil has been on a tear touching a new recent high on Friday.
  • Gold still clinging to  $5000 (closing above $5250) like Trump owes it money

My only question on the situation is, what took so long? Iran has been a thorn in our side since the the Shah of Iran fled to the United States in October 1979 after being overthrown during the Iranian Revolution. He sought medical treatment for cancer, but his arrival contributed to the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran shortly thereafter. Of course after having just wrapped up the highly unpopular Vietnam war, America was in no mood to go to war again, and Jimmy Carter was weaker than Joe Biden in a foot race.

In Trump's video address Saturday:

“We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground, It will be totally obliterated” the president said. “We are going to annihilate their navy, we are going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region and the world.” (many sources) 

"The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war."

Markets don't like uncertainty, and this action certainly removes the what if factor. Of course the leftist msm will root for Iran, we already see them front running the story with reports that Iran is retaliating. Iran would be smart to surrender immediately. 

How Will Markets React 
  • The unwind of the defensive sector rotation
  • Possible spike on the $VIX overnight Sunday Futures followed by an unwind of the fear trade. 
  • We may see a knee jerk reaction in Sunday futures trading, and a spike in Gold, but I think we could see a rally in US equities. This geopolitical clarity could be the catalyst the market needs to shake off the lingering AI fear trade, and pull cash off the sidelines, sparking risk-on sentiment. 

March comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb 
  
Posted by at No comments:

Friday, February 27, 2026

NVIDIA Earnings Fail To Impress Mixed Markets

Like it or not: US BIG TECH REMAINS IN THE PENALTY BOX 

That message could not have been made more perfectly clear than it was when the bottom dropped out on NVIDIA, at yesterday's opening bell. 

$NVDA had already rallied off the Feb. low - up nearly +20%, It continued to rally on Wed. Even popped another 3% in after hours trading. Earnings were blowout, as expected, yet it wasn't until yesterday's open where the trap door sprung open. 

This was one of those rare instances, where whatever you thought we were seeing in the after hours market didn't count, and what followed was more sideways slop, on mixed markets. 

Some sectors ended higher, some lower, but as long as money continues to hide in Gold, and other alt trades, while money continues to flee the US for every other part of the world; Europe, Japan, S. Korea; I'm happy to watch from the sideline, and after 4 months of this shit, I'm getting really good at it. 

We covered the $VIX action extensively a couple days ago [link], and then I see CNBC Fast Money - last night's show - doing a deep dive on the subject. I'm not accusing them of plagiarism, I think everyone is looking at the $VIX under a microscope. They even went so far as to bring on guest - all the way from Japan - to try to tell investors that a relatively new indicator called, "the $VIXEQ (Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index) - sold as a single stock indicator - is comparatively "not so high". More smoke and mirrors. Take a look for yourself, and decide if volatility is low. Spoiler, that particular fear gauge has been trending higher since Christmas Eve - the same date where they sold tech in 2025. Is this program selling? I don't know.   

Yoshiko Yamaguchi CFA Screenshot

INVESTMENT CAPITAL CONTINUES TO FLEE THE US 

The bull parade (perma-bulls) on the TV continues as money managers from BofA to [blank] continue to insist that the idea that money is fleeing the US, is "hogwash", yet nobody can deny that Europe and Asia have out-performed US markets by some 40%. Momentum is an aphrodisiac, to investors.   
Add to this the fear that AI is about to take your cushy Wall Street Analyst job, and you have the perfect motive to go on TV and lie your ass off.    

Sure, the globalists, and the socialists continue to prefer ROW, but that's not the only reason the $SPX remains trapped in purgatory - trading at the same levels it was back in Oct. '25.  The NASDAQ (what most young people are heavily invested in) is actually trading below the October highs. I trade in and out of this tech heavy sector, because this is the only sector that matters. Sure you could trade a snapback rally in beaten up software cloud names, or even chase the stealth bull market in semis, but you risk falling through the next trap door. $SOX -3% - after eking out a slightly new high? No thanks! The weather in Chicago is forecast to be spring like, and I plan to take full advantage of it. 

As for NVIDIA, last I checked it was being bought at the 50 day SMA. That's the level to watch, but after yesterdays action, I think there's a great possibility that we're about to see another shakeout. 

Take Care, AA 



Posted by at No comments:

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Where AI Software-mageddon Meets SPX Sideways Slop: $VIX 19 - Should You Trust It?

The $VIX continues to keep traders on edge, and the buying algos at bay:  Monday was another bloody session, with the selling spilling over into several sectors. Took 2-3 days to pinpoint the catalyst, and the story just gets interestiner, and interestinger—FOCUS:  
  • Software-mageddon? 
  • Trump tariff chaos? 
  • Private Credit - yeah thanks Jamie Dimon for the Tuesday Morning Quarterback!    
  • Monday's Plot Twist: A futuristic fable written by a couple of shady-looking macro-fund managers in a Manhattan high-rise. Citrini Research’s “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” memo — framed as pure "scenario, not prediction" — hit X like a viral contagion Sunday night and suddenly everyone was piling on the AI doomsday machine psyop theater [Citriani's AI doom report scares investors]. 


Pretty much no trades are working including the hysterically hyped "Broadening Out" trade.    

BOOM: Who appears on my screen again this morning, but perma-clown Julian Emanuel trying to sell us on the idea that the $VIX is overbought, and that options traders are contrarians (which they certainly are), but one thing I've learned over the years it to NEVER ARGUE WITH THE TAPE.   
Granted: The $VIX Isn't Too ConvincingWith NVIDIA Earnings After The Bell I wouldn't be hanging my hat on that peg, after the trend we've seen - tech stocks being taken down on one AI fear, or another, over the past few months. 
The market should be afraid, very afraid - it's not (and that's a red flag) 
 Buy the dip, sell the rip continues to provide some comic relief, and good gains for those who can stomach the volatility, but after 3 weeks of this sideways slop is getting to feel like Groundhog Day the movie  
Feels like any other bear trap: $VIX poking it's head just above 20, for just long enough to suck in a few  more retail bears, but something doesn't feel right, and nobody can deny that there is some panic in the software, and private credit markets, and that panic could still spill over into other sectors - yet I still give that a low probability.  
Caution advised 

P.S. I said no trade is working, but the buy the dip sell the rip trade has actually has been working really well, if you are able to crack the code on it. Never give up! 
Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Adding More Nails to the Broadening Out Economy Coffin

Quick Update: Markets remain pretty lame (slow) especially for $VIX 20, but hey, at least we've got impending US-Iran fireworks to distract from the real show: Bloomberg is seen flipping bearish again as Trump preps for "war", pushing $100 Crude Oil (fear porn). Look, I get it: the Chinese get their oil from Iran, and that upsets the China-lovin' crew at Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, I'd like to blow some more holes in the "broadening out" psyop being pushed by the dishonest mainstream media, they've been pushing for, going on 3 months now. The broadening out narrative is nothing new; it's a retread recovery narrative, as we covered back in Dec. '25 [link to post].
Trump bears – including most of Europe – continue to sell (short) US markets. Highlighting yesterday's pinned tweet, absolute gold, if I do say so myself. See the $SPY chart annotations. 





































Apparently "Pivot From the US" was misinterpreted as "Short US tech", and I personally can't wait to see how this plan turns out! Yes, I'm still net long, even after the rally of the past 3 days. 
I don't watch much CNBC anymore, but it's been slow, and I get bored watching a weak tape... Yesterday I happened to catch the midday crew encouraging AI panicans to pile into boring consumer staples like Walmart, Costco, etc. Of course, this is a continuation of the "broadening out" lie we've been fed over the past month or two, and here's why they chose
 $WMT:
  • Consumer Staple - household name - even the rich are forced to shop this turd thanks to double-digit inflation during the Biden years
  • Megacap - moves markets like a Mag7 name
  • Dow component #24 (Dow 50k should ring a bell)
Nipped that in the bud: 


The Playbook Hasn't Changed
In fact, Christopher Verrone just came on Bloomberg, called out the defensive trade—hiding in cyclicals  - specifically mentioned utilities—as a "knife's edge": Translation: The sector rotation may have reached an end.
Take Care, AA
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)