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Friday, September 11, 2026

Bonds, Banks, and $VIX: The Trade Nobody's Connecting

While the talking heads are pointing to $6 crude oil, attempting to fan the flames on Trumpflation - not gold this time - diesel fuel - and good luck trying to find a reliable chart. It's a niche trade, similar to nickel. I only charted it this morning, because it's one of the only news stories hitting the tape. Spoiler:

The Brent crude oil chart - I discovered after yesterday's close - is far more exciting..: 


That is NOT the chart that cracked the code on the current market. This is: 

1. $PBFKX - Pioneer Bond Fund (trades mostly US government backed treasuries). Price action just took out my downside target, at the lower end of the range (a classic pennant pattern). This is the chart that utterly destroys the liberal lame stream media false narrative, that "investors are making bets on higher interest rates". Funny thing is they're reporting this with a happy face - I haven't seen them having this much fun since they started blaming covid deaths on Trump, but I digress...  

2. Financials: I hinted at what I was looking at a couple days ago: 

It's absolutely not a coincidence that the protected - too big to fail - US banking system is holding up just fine, even as the supposed threat of higher debt and soaring interest rates are knocking at the door. Ironic. 


And without further ado: The 7th tweet response, below the pinned tweet alert I posted in my timeline yesterday. It's like a treasure hunt finding it - explains why it got so few views. Click on the tweet below to get a better view of the bullish consolidation pattern - landing right on key support in real time. 

In case you're still scratching your head: the powers that shouldn't be have no intention of allowing US financials to collapse as they did in 2008, and that's what makes the above chart an absolute tell. It proves that the bull market - if you can even call it that - remains on track. 

3th Chart I discovered had to be updated, before the pattern - a clean parallel channel - came into view. Click on my response to the tweet below - to find one of the best charts of the day (only got 23 views). Just goes to show how little attention is paid to the most valuable information. 

$SVXY - The Infamous $VIX bear ETF


One of the main reasons the fear PsyOp needed to be ramped up - was to coincide with the republican convention, so in hindsight it was the perfect storm, and I'm not sure it's entirely over. The midterms aren't over by a long shot.   

 The week in review: The action was not all that terrible, unless you were trying to bottom pick one of the sectors CNBC Fast Money has been shamelessly pumping all year - too many to mention. 

 The Broader Market Is Set For a Rebound

The S&P only ended down .5% - yet managed to shake the weak hands just below the 50 day SMA.   

Support on the SPY is the June high ($759). The Chart speaks for itself. 


P.S. Happy 9/11 Patriots! Never stop exposing the truth about what really happened on this day in history! Only 80% of Americans believe the official narrative.  


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Thursday, September 10, 2026

Summer Wrap-Up: Post Labor Day View: Light Volume, Heavy Rotation - Part II

 I gave a way a lot in yesterday's update -  Summer Wrap-Up: Post Labor Day View: Light Volume, Heavy Rotation (Part I) - covering 8 sectors + the $VIX.  That was before yesterday's mid-morning breakout on the $VIX, along with several more important observations:  

Firstly a couple quick corrections:    

1. I was right about the sell-off starting in Europe, but Claude (AI) flagged my tweet calling HSBC "Chinese owned". I still had questions: 


Gemini (google AI) confirms:  "HSBC is a London-based bank with a Hong Kong and Shanghai logo because of its colonial history and global corporate restructuring. 

Although HSBC is headquartered in London today, it was originally founded in Hong Kong and Shanghai in 1865." 
I did not know corporate logos were a thing back in 1865, but I also did NOT know, Hong Kong was legally and practically a British colony for over 150 years. And that concludes today's history lesson.
2. I claimed financials and biotech were still leading the bull market, but that was last week's news. In fact healthcare & Biotech, is getting absolutely pummeled, and financials are on a 3 day losing streak. I'm still getting caught up after last week's road trip - try to keep up with me. I actually sounded the warning last week saying: How long can rotation trades continue to fuel the broader rally? Not much longer, I'm afraid [link to the August 22nd blog]. 

On to for more important things 
$SOXL - called out yesterday:   $SOX was sold at the 50 day SMA. You should already know that. If I had to guess I'd say it could break out, but don't ignore the algos.  


More *Broadening Rotations [Unwinds] = More Broken Charts  

In hindsight while they were levitating the market using the usual magic act (driving MAGS - including the only stocks that really matter ($NVDA, $AAPL, MSFT) higher, they were quietly unwinding the software-maggedon squeeze. Just as the msm told you the coast was clear?  

You'd have to be living under a rock not to catch the August short squeezes, but what may have flown under your radar (pun intended) is the great unwind in Aerospace (including Wall Street darling $GE - the one to watch) - and Airlines. 

$GE - trend technically broken, but seeing some machine buying at the 200 day SMA. 


Are stocks selling off in a panic? No. Just another - sleight of hand - rotation. 
BUT EUROPE IS IN DEEP TROUBLE: 
This isn't an opinion - it's based on the recent flight to hard assets in Europe, and the fact that the $FEZ (the European banking sector) just had the rug pulled below the 50 day sma. 


Breaking: ECB just rated a quarter point as expected. Here in the US we're still watching the 50 day on the $SPX, and a Federal reserve that reports next week. 
$VIX level to watch is the 50 day moving average - right where yesterday's breakout occurred. 
CNBC is seen fanning the flames:   

 

 As I pointed out yesterday: it's a complicated market and more bifurcated than ever. I obviously can't micromanage 15 things at once, so all I can tell you is to watch the moving averages, and follow my timeline. Good luck

*Broadening rotation refers to a made up term - Morgan Stanley - which we covered in a previous blog [linked] - section title - The Rotation Hustle, Confirmed By Morgan Stanley's Own Word Salad Chef - Mike Wilson  


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