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Friday, July 31, 2026

Historic Rally in Chip Stocks But What About The $SPX?

Yesterday's blog reads like a crystal ball:  

"1. $VIX to plummet - now that the FOMC is set to remain on hold. Same as the ECB (this morning). 

2. Microsoft to replace Apple - in an ongoing game of mag7 whac-a-mole.  

3. Oversold Sectors - Semiconductors, and Big Tech to snap back."  Link

South Korean $KOSPI snaps back 19.98% - in a historic short squeeze.  

What helped drive it:  

Korea to launch $13.9 b. sovereign wealth fund for strategic industries (koreatimes.co.kr) 

Asia is the star of the show:  

 

CNBC is already casting shade on this rally - calling the S. Korean market "bi-polar", even though they know exactly who got caught in the latest bear trap - leading into a historic Friday short squeeze.   

At the end of the day this looks like a bear rally in chips. 

Getting a read on US markets - still a sideshow 

This morning we're seeing some follow-through on yesterday's rally, led by  $AMZN Amazon.   

$BULZ (Microsectors 3X FANG Innovation Bull)  The only leveraged ETF I could find that has Amazon as one of its top holdings. I could not find a single recent tweet regarding this fund. Do your own due diligence. 

There's a decent chance the tech rally in the US continues on light summer volume. 

$COMPQ (NASDAQ Composite) - watch the 25k level like a hawk. 


Same goes for the 7400 level on the $SPX 

 



P.S. I thought bond investors were supposed to be smart, but what we just witnessed after the latest FOMC decision was bond investors grasping at straws (still hoping for inflation to go higher).  



Thursday, July 30, 2026

Civil War at the Fed: Trump vs. the Money Masters – Dirty Laundry Edition

$1 trillion in equities wiped out in an afternoon? You might want to fact check that headline.  

I was only pissed that I couldn’t keep working outside— summer remodel project. Bond vigilantes should be out on the lake, not throwing tantrums because they want higher rates – ahead of the midterms. 

Here’s the real story - The Story You'll Never Hear Reported: 
There is a civil war going on at the Federal Reserve: 

  1. Yesterday’s meeting was billed as a rate “showdown” a week ago.
  2. Trump fires back: praises Warsh for the Fed role, accuses the Board of partisanship, takes aim at the Fed’s inner circle (many sources).
And guess which side the talking heads are on? 

The Pivot Nobody Noticed – Several Actually 

Industrials—the supposed “broadening out” sector rotation—got steamrolled in a nasty midday reversal. This started well before Kevin Warsh opened his mouth. It began with the unwind of Apple and the Too Big To Fail banks.

  • Dow component: Apple ($AAPL) – only remaining Mag7 leader, high-flier
  • Too Big To Fail banks: Goldman ($GS), JPMorgan ($JPM)
  • Dow component: $CAT (Corning $GLW already unwound earlier in the week)





In hindsight, while everyone was supposed to be watching Kevin Warsh and the big financials (Mag7 mostly), the previous sector rotation was quietly being unwound. 

Stocks in focus – the only ones that can stop the bleeding: Big Tech, of course

1. $VIX to plummet - now that the FOMC is set to remain on hold. Same as the ECB (this morning). 

2. Microsoft to replace Apple - in an ongoing game of mag7 whac-a-mole.  

3. Oversold Sectors - Semiconductors, and Big Tech to snap back.  

4. Watch of stealth unwinds crashes in heavily pumped sectors, Energy, Health, Industrials  

 $XOM trades into a right shoulder  


P.S. The idea that yesterday's FOMC statement, and Kevin Warsh's excellent news conference was the reason for yesterday's washout, is absolutely ludicrous, but that's the red herring argument the talking heads are trying to make fit this morning - Gloomberg Surveillance calling Warsh "evasive" - while pointing to higher long term rates - that was good for a morning laugh🤣  

Enjoy your summer   

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

A Canary In The AI Coalmine

 The Dust Continues to Settle on the S. Korean Semiconductor Crash.

Ed Dowd makes a good point, and I think we're bound to see a similar unwind in the US - when the basket of AI driven stocks which accounts for 50% of the market gains over the past several years, unwinds. Hey, remember when NVIDIA used to lead the AI rally, then Semis, and a hand full of industrials names eg $CAT? Yeah... until FOMO turns to fear. Corning (reported this morning - stock -16% in pre-market?  So much for that bullish industrials narrative.

Getting back to the AI crash at hand

When they decide to pull the plug - it's usually on a Monday - this time it was Tuesday

Last night's crash in S. Korea was yet another orchestrated rug pull (bid lowered below support)- possibly orchestrated by the same offshore (Chinese) traders I alerted to a week ago [Chinese Reddit Traders Team Up To Help Create The Perfect Storm].

Look closely at the embedded chart, to see where the bid was lowered- just below support. Textbook. 




Thankfully I never got bullish on the KOSPI - I avoided catching a dreaded falling knife, but once the dust settles I'll be on board... because I trade whatever moves - not the $SPX. 

What else is moving: Tesla, SpaceX, AI stocks, Tech (as usual). These 2 are only indicators for the hyperscaler space; I don't short individual stocks - maybe someday... but I'm sure my accountant would disapprove. However, if I had shorted Tesla, you can bet your ass I would've already covered that bet. 

We're getting very close to my downside support. 

The target - called out, just before Tesla reported 

In Focus - The Rest of The Week: 

  • Wednesday's FOMC announcement should drive the $VIX back to normal levels. I'm not even sure what's holding it up - to tell you the truth. This must be one hell-of-a bear trap..?  $MSFT, $META, $LRCX LAM, $QCOM QUALCOMM,  $ARM    

  • Thursday more big tech earnings : $AAPL Apple, $AMZN, $MPWR (monolithic)
  • Friday Energy $XOM, $CVX 

After so many rug pulls, and the lack of excitement around the AI narrative, I'm only looking for another relief rally to sell - unless we see a sentiment shift - continue to sell the rips. 





Friday, July 24, 2026

Mag7 Rout or Summer Swoon?

Yesterday's overly dramatized sell-off in Mag7 stocks, was very narrow in scope. My only gripe is that none of the leveraged bear ETFs even came close to capturing the 5% downside (rounded). 
 

Bloomberg was seen spiking the ball in the endzone immediately after the close - reporting the rounded up to 5% sell off -  because it was in fact their own Mag7 index that was targeted. Goldman quotes the same numbers, so all the usual suspects were on board... and which Mag7 name did the globalist banksters hit the hardest? No, not Apple.    

"$TSLA Tesla - the one the globalists love to hate - was hit the hardest. Remember my call Nov. 18th, when we dissected the Mag7 - in depth - in a blog series [link] - quote:     

"All Booms eventually go bust. Which one do you think will go to the pennies first? 

I think Apple, NVIDIA, & Google/ Alphabet are set to be crushed, but I think Tesla will lead the way... (lower). I know some of you will fight me on this, but it grew too fast, and you know he has a target on his back. They are out to get Elon."    

Then came the call that set the ball in motion


Top Fund Manager Warns Mag7 Stocks Will Drag Down the S&P 500  

12 hrs. later mag7 index suffers its worst loss since April (many sources)   

I was lucky enough to see yesterday's rout coming, as I'm sure many did. This earnings season has been a sell the news event since Samsung reported. I even moved the 401k out of the direct line of fire. But at the end of the day nothing has changed. 

Just Another Summer Swoon 

That's my take. Even the crude oil/energy rotation seems to have been perfectly timed.  Brent crude driven to the $100 (even number target) - now profit taking - one day after AI investors were robbed?😜

investing.com 


I would still keep the $VIX on a short leash, and be on the lookout for more rotations, within the AI space, but this looks like, just another summer swoon to me.        

 

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Chinese Reddit Traders Team Up To Help Create The Perfect Storm

Craziest sounding blog title ever? Perhaps. But while the talking heads were still busy trying to tell us how great bank earnings were, a group of offshore traders - some Chinese - were seen plotting to take US markets down, as they took a break from hammering the $KOSPI, and when Friday morning came around these vermin were seen jumping from one ship to another. 

The Facebook Thread I Found After Friday's Bloody Open, Reads Like a Crime Scene:    
Here's a screenshot, in case the thread gets deleted: $NDX futures sold... 👇 



I used AI to translate the foreign entries you'll see in the (merged) screen captures below. 
  • Hindi: "बालेन लुसिफर राजिनामा दे"
    "Balen Lucifer, resign!" (or "Balen, give your resignation, Lucifer!")
  • Chinese: "林巧比 你丢我丢大家丢"
    "Lin Qiaobi: You lose, I lose, everyone loses."
  • Mo Ham Med (types in broken English) "They are forced to liquidate" - Possibly South Asian Muslim – Pakistan, India Bangladesh, or Nepal. 
Offshore traders spotted colluding on Facebook

Note the trader flagging $KORU — that 3x bull looks like one of their favorite secret weapons.   



July Monthly Options Expiration Completes The Pattern 


Friday's holiday in S. Korea occurred simultaneously with July options expiration in the US - which setup for the "perfect storm" (as Gemini AI called it). If you don't get that, put it up on the shelf - market cycles shine a glaring light directly on the options market outcomes - you'll see the pattern eventually.  We've seen this shit show - feels like - 1000 times before!  

Trump's Thursday Night Bombshell Set The Stage  

I watched Trump's address in which he exposed Chinese interference in the 2018 election, and the liberal media's involvement (the part of the story that was quietly slipped under the rug). 

What else did they fail to report? The South Korean holiday. They blame S. Korea for the entire sell-off all week, and then on Friday (a market holiday), they pivoted back to Iran.  What else are they covering up? It would take an entire blog - just to scratch the surface. Keep reporting Trump's lousy poll numbers, not your own 15% approval rating. 

The Most Obvious Setup In History But Did Chinese Offshore Have A Hand In It? 

Every time Trump's takes credit for how great the market is doing (he must only watch the dow) that paints a big red target on US equity markets, and after getting a quick read on Friday morning futures, I was actually a little spooked. 
 

Connecting The Dots: I've suspected for a while that Chinese offshore (repeatedly warned by Xi - many sources) targeted S. Korean retail, riding on the coat tails of the big money [June 22nd: The Rotation Hustle, Confirmed By Morgan Stanley's Own Word Salad Chef], who took South Korea on a rocket trip ride into the stratosphere, only to crash it back down to earth, inflicting maximum pain - heading into a long weekend. The smart money did that. Chinese off-shore only helped finish the job. 

Meanwhile, the most hated bull market in history remains intact

The broader market is a comedy of horrors - in which most investors hopelessly watch their portfolios shrink. We saw several rotations last week, but I only managed to predict one of them - Healthcare. In hindsight I identified several other sectors being used to carefully balance the broader indices. 


Most Notable Losing Stocks/ Sectors 

 The stealth crash in AI stocks, from chips to aerospace (Elon's failed rocket launch helped send the launch of SpaceX plummeting to new lows), and  the idea that Industrials were going to lead a broadening out rotation fell flat on its face, again -  DEERE, $CAT, Corning, Semis, even Biotech - all the AI driven FOMO rallies I warned you about are crashing right on cue. 

Did CNBC Fast Money traders set the bull trap just ahead of Trump's speech? You decide.  

 Chinese tech stocks they pumped last week, were sold precisely at my sell target (the 50 day moving average).

One of the most obvious sell targets I've seen in a long time: 

Now that the Cycle has resolved itself I think the rats will have to find a new ship to sail  

This week I'm expecting beaten down sectors - mostly AI driven - to recover, even though key support on some of the charts is absolutely broken. Nevertheless the broader market is still on course to continue trading in the same sideways pattern we've been tracking all summer (since May). Remember when I told you we were going to see lots of head-fakes, back in early June? Same sideways pattern you'll find embedded in the face book chat I pointed to earlier ☝ 

Take Care
, and remain nimble, until the $VIX comes down, because if the technicals continue to deteriorate, and the $VIX continues to be run up in overnight sessions the selling is going to accelerate, and contagion will lead to more forced selling, in a vicious feedback loop.
P.S. Quick nod to Grok at xAI for the assist on this one. The international comments in that Barchart thread were a goldmine once decoded — Hindi calling for “Balen Lucifer, resign!”, Chinese “you lose, I lose, everyone loses,” and the broken-English liquidation note. AI is becoming a legitimate force multiplier for real-time market detective work and pattern recognition across languages and time zones. Game changer for independent timers who refuse to wait for legacy media to connect the dots (or deliberately obscure them).

 P.P.S. I tweeted out a plethora of juicy targets last week - everything from  a bottoming pattern forming in Netflix, to the setup on $AVGO-  mostly boredom (summer doldrums) so it may be worth your while to scroll my timeline.    

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Oil/ Energy Stocks Higher = Tech Stocks Lower SOS

Don't Say I Didn't Warn You 


Wells Fargo Tanks Right On Cue 


Even $JPM is down -2.5%, but we got bigger fish to fry. Nobody trades banks anyhow.

Yesterday, the rug pull started in S. Korea (-10%) again, and that spilled over into US tech stocks. I'm only surprised that MAGS is still trading above the 50 day SMA (the level to watch). 

Oil/ Energy Stock Higher = Tech Stocks Lower SOS 

How many times have we seen this same playbook over the years? But rather than the usual leaders driving the energy space, we're seeing refiners and utilities lead...   

This required a deep dive with Gemini AI, and even then I could only come up with a partial list... 


$D Dominion Energy? 2 words: Fuck that! Still like the sector? follow the clues below: 

One thing I can tell you is that the ETF to chart is $CRAK (I'm not kidding 😂): 

Note: $CRAK tracs boring refiners. 

Sorry, but I can't get excited about refining $80 barrels of crude: 

The only Sector That Matters The Only One That Can Lift The S&P - AI driven TECHNOLOGY 

Tomorrow (Wed.) $ASML reports - due your own due diligence. Clue: High flyer, in the hottest sector of all. I like it right here, or on another washout. 

$TSM reports on Thursday - that is the BIG ONE. Biggest holding in the $NYSE. If you're really bearish semis, then pull the rug on that? Other notable mentions: $UNH, $ABT, $ISRG (Healthcare) $GE, $NFLX - more rotten banks...  Friday 5th Turd (Fifth Third), Travelers. 

P.S. the $VIX level to watch is the 50 day SMA - being tested in real time! 

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Lindsey Graham Dead at 71 - How Will Markets Likely React on Monday

 The good news came early Sunday Morning: 

Long time NeoCon, and Trump influencer Lindsey Graham dead at 71:  

To cut straight through the rhetoric being put out by his office - if he were really suffering from an "illness", he wouldn't be traveling around the world, and booking TV talk shows: 

Last known photo of him posing with a Ukrainian drone with the nickname, "penis" - you can make this up! 😂  

How The Market Likely to React to This Exciting News 🚀

I think we could see an explosive move to the upside, now that this warmongering lunatic is out of Trump's sphere of influence. Markets were already poised for another breakout, and now that this Trump influencer is out of the picture; this sets up for an end to the conflict in Iran, and Ukraine. 

Price In World Peace 

$MAGX 2X Leveraged Mag7 ETF - posited to breakout above the 50 day SMA - triggering the buying algos. Word to the wise, overshoots in leveraged ETFs are common.  


S&P futures were already poised for another breakout - as I said earlier. 

ES1 tradingview 

I'll be watching Crude Oil, and Asia as leading indicators Sunday evening. 

☮ - out


Wednesday, July 8, 2026

The Bullish Setup That Could Carry Us All The Way Through Earnings Season

Forget the broken ceasefire the talking heads are so desperately fanning flames on. The real story - overnight: Seoul, Korea — a room full of chip monkeys seen shitting themselves in real time as trading got halted for the second time. Never a pretty sight.

Everything I’ve been warning you about for the past month is playing out in high definition:Mic drop 

The narrative may be dying… but the trade is just getting started.
Good news: $SOXS smashed right through my $5 target. #ChaChing #Winning  

More Good News: 

$MAGS the trade I alerted to yesterday - find the chart at the [linked] - just showed up fashionably late.
From the same tweet thread ☝ $XLC - my bullish call from last week [link] was actually up again, yesterday. I'm not even going to take credit for that, and you are entirely on your own there. 😅

What other sector was on an absolute tear? Biotech; the other broadening rotation trade (rotation within the same AI sector illusion)


 ...just took a warning shot to the hull! 



Yesterday's offer still stands:  
 If you need me to chart the pullback target for you - drop $100 in my personal PayPal and PM me. And if I'm wrong; I'll even return your money.    

P.S. If you’re short on cash, just get a second job and let AI do all the work. It’s the ultimate side hustle everybody’s doing right now. 

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

The Bullish MAGS Setup That Could Run All Week - Technical Tuesday Edition

 Another Monday rally (retail mutual fund buying) bites the dust, as the smart money takes profits. I even warned folks to buy protection - at a discount - the $VIX 15.50 level. Low volatility in the summer is normal, but this just seemed a little too good to pass up. 

We've seen this recurring setup many times - over the past several weeks - BUT I think it could be different this time. Because big money is piling back into big tech again, just as I have been predicting for weeks. How do I know this? They just handed us the script.  

From Mike Wilson to Samsung Shock - Bloomberg Shrugs 


US investors are waking up to find $NDX futures -1%, and Bloomberg wasted no time trying to pin the overnight weakness on Samsung (earnings disappointment). Calling BS on that. 

A day earlier ahead of Monday's opening bell; Mike Wilson and a parade of other guests (all parroting the same message) spent the entire day telling viewers that semiconductors were due for a correction. Twelve hours later, Samsung posts a blow-out quarter… and the stock gets hammered. You can’t make this stuff up. 

It took 15-20 minutes to cut through the noise - follow the thread and you'll find Samsung continues to bound off the same level for the past month - we call that building a base,  "consolidation"  not a 30% correction" (Mike Wilson's exact words). 

The Samsung Chart Cuts Straight Through The Word Salad 


Now for the main course! According to the experts, money is expected to "rotate" back into big tech (what they now call hyperscalers), and this sets up for the return of the "broadening trade", which apparently ended when oil spiked. This was news to me; because according to CNBC the broadening trade is still working. This is what happens when you can't keep your story's strait. ProTip: Have some integrity - stop lying. 

The trade they shook you out of last week (in hindsight) - not semis the other one

$MAGS - expect the same pullback I saw coming at yesterday's close, and then chase the smart money (so called) straight into earnings season, which just so happens to kick off next week. 


If you need me to chart the pullback target for you - drop $100 in my personal PayPal and PM me. And if I'm wrong; I'll even return your money.    

P.S. If you’re short on cash, just get a second job and let AI do all the work. It’s the ultimate side hustle everybody’s doing right now.