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Sunday, August 30, 2026

Gold vs Bitcoin: Decoupling, or Debasement Trade Rotation?

Let's begin with a mind blowing chart view that I'm sure nobody else is pointing to this morning: 

 Spot Gold Price In Euros - 40 year chart - In hindsight: the snapback rally in gold was triggered as the price action bounced off the upper channel line on the golden $EUR - not on dollar weakness, bond yields, Bessent, or the endless media speculation about what Kevin Warsh might say at Jackson Hole - media saturation. Gold priced in EUROs simply bounced off the upper trend line. 


Funny you don't hear about the collapse of the EURO, only the $USD  - meanwhile the EURO priced in gold reads like the tape on a worthless penny stock. Like a failed experiment.  

Who else's currency is in deep trouble? punchline: Whose isn't?  The Australia's Ausi Dollar! Homework assignment: Chart the gold rally in Ausi dollars. 

And they just happen to mine gold there! Ever hear of Newmont? 

Needless to say: Gold miners were run up AHEAD of Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole - 

 That wasn't the only warning I gave that Jackson Hole was beginning to look like a "sell the news" event, for gold miners. 

Friday Morning CNBC was seen pumping "Newmont" $NEM, and materials stocks (craftily setting the bull trap): 


What followed was a massive bear raid on gold miners. Coincidence? 🤷 

See the conviction buying on the 3X bear ETF - record volume! 

 Is this snap reaction the beginning of a larger sell-off in precious metals? That remains to be seen, but the conviction buying in the $GDXD should give you pause. 

I'm obviously not the only one who was anticipating the move that broke the chart patterns we were watching - in Thursday's update [linked]

I think Friday may have been a little over-done - and given all the short interest heading into a banking holiday on Monday (in Europe). Labor Day in 2 weeks. 

Gold vs Bitcoin: Decoupling, or Debasement Trade Rotation

Bitcoin ended rather weak, and the short sellers are already licking their chops. 

Here's why...: 

Bitcoin seems to be trading counter to gold - may even be a new rotation within the debasement trade. 
$BTC used to trade more like a high beta tech asset, before perception changed. Today it trades more like gold's moody cousin who missed the family meeting. 🤣

 The $GOLD:$GBTC (Gold Priced in Bitcoin) is a chart that has to be seen, to be believed: Shows exactly why the rip your face off rally in Gold, the biggest move we've seen in several months, was immediately followed by a face melting rally in Bitcoin, and if you follow Peter Schiff you know these 2 factions have been battling since  last Nov., 2025. Refresher: Crypto collapsed, and gold, and silver surged. I covered it back in Dec. - "When Flash Surges and Flash Crashes Collide: Silver's Post-Christmas Magic Trick"  [linked]  

 


AI confirms Bitcoin is absolutly being traded in gold, and the proof is in the charts!: 


Take care this week, as trading volume dries up again, heading into Labor Day.   

P.S. 

Beware of shadowy characters who command a massive presence on X, and Telegram: 




One shocking example of an account I had previously blocked - unblocked just to take a closer look: 

 

Follow the links at your own risk

    A quick Gemini/AI query reveals what may be hidden behind the curtain: 

 1. Flipper (The Tool)

Flipper Zero is a popular, open-source portable multi-tool used by tech enthusiasts, developers, and hardware hackers. It interacts with physical hardware and wireless frequencies (RFID, NFC, Infrared, and Sub-GHz). 
  • In a Web3 context, "flippers" also refers to a specific trader persona who acquires digital assets (like NFTs or token presales) strictly to sell them immediately for a quick profit. [1]
2. Degen (The Archetype)
Short for "degenerate," this is a slang term originating in DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and crypto communities. A degen represents a high-risk crypto trader who buys into speculative, unverified tokens or experimental projects without doing traditional due diligence. When paired with Flipper, it points to a specific demographic crossover: hardware hackers who apply the same high-risk, "try it and see if it breaks" mentality to hardware exploitation and custom radio configurations.
3. Threador (The Target/Protocol Hack)
This is a wordplay blending Thread (the smart home wireless mesh protocol) with the "or" suffix commonly found in crypto personas (like Investor or Liquidator). [1, 2]
  • The Hacking Angle: Security researchers utilize the Flipper Zero to explore and audit the Thread smart-home protocol. By hooking up low-cost external radio dev boards (like an nRF52840 or ESP32-C6) via the Flipper Zero GPIO pins, users act as "Threadors." They inject traffic, build OpenThread boundary nodes, and audit the low-level data packets passing through Thread-enabled smart doors and IoT appliances. 

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Thursday, August 27, 2026

NVIDIA, Metals, Miners, and Energy Stocks in Focus

NVIDIA building support at a key level before the breakout, was an easy read. 

Yesterday's pivot out of Energy (over the past week), and Gold (over the past 2 days) is - in hindsight - absolutely glaring, as NVIDIA ($NVDA) leads the tech heavy $SPX higher - after last night's blow-out earnings. This morning's read in pre-market:   

They're also raising money in order to buy the Anthropic IPO - as soon as Sept. What better way to raise cash than to drive worthless sectors into a short squeeze, before dumping them again?    

Metals Gold Silver Platinum Copper - spoiler - copper crashing  

Gold is set to snap back on tomorrow's Jackson Hole statement. Think of Gold as the scaredy-cat trade for Trump haters. They don't like the Bessent (Treasury), or the Warsh led Fed, SpaceX (for obvious reasons), or INTEL, or anything else being subsidized by the Trump administration. Instead they love gold, as they pray for a weaker dollar, and higher yields.  

Gold always rallies on a fed statement - and the charts agree:

1. First screenshot shows gold bouncing out of a downturned wedge, or triangle pattern, 

2. The chart action shows gold quietly consolidating (lower) in a range: 


Gold Miners Continue to be Heavily Pumped: You may have seen the following article highlighted in the @3Xtraders timeline: 

That's the same retread (story) they tried to sell retail investors back in July 2025. The idea that gold miners need to play catch up to Gold, because the miners lag... ignoring the fact that a producer isn't a precious metal. It's like comparing apples to apple tree seedlings. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, and an ounce of gold in your hand is worth 450 shares of $GDX, because it costs a lot of money to get gold out of the ground. Don't count your chickens, before they hatch.😅   

The Truth is the gold miners are so thinly traded - even more so than even energy - that manipulating the $GDX, and the $GDXJ is like child's play, for the greedy hedge funds, and publishing shady articles to lure unsuspecting investors into another bad trade, costs little, to nothing.   

Newmont $NEM Becomes The One To Watch 

Looks to me like the pump is over, minus another bounce on Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. 

P.S.  Traders are returning to their desks after the summer break, and it shows: Volume is picking up and that helps make trading more predictable. Pump 'n' dump gold, crypto, and pull the rug on the energy rally - all par for the course. Crypto pumped with Gold miners is the same rotation retread we saw in 2025. Word to the wise. 

P.P.S. I'm no longer hiding out in Treasuries, but only because I got bored with such tiny gains.  

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Saturday, August 22, 2026

The Breakout: First Gold Then Bitcoin - Double Whammy

The breakout in gold, and gold miners was no surprise - after watching it consolidate in a downturned triangle for most of the summer. The breakout of the pattern was followed by several more important technical signals, on August 10th. 

1.

2. 

 3. 8/22 Today Saturday -  Gold still has room to run.             


What I didn't see coming, was the perfectly scripted narrative:

  • "Yield driven sell-off in Equities" - with the $VIX trading below 16? I don't think so. 
  •  National Debt reaches $40 Trillion (headline grabbing round number) 
  • Treasury's failed attempt to sooth the bond market - a Gloomberg favorite! 

But first came an article published by Barons - pumping not gold but the gold bugs' favorite ETF the $GDX (Gold Miners), just as money started fleeing US markets (again). Yep, it's the return of the rotation trade that Mike Wilson helped coordinate... Remember he specifically mentioned gold miners. 

Tweet August 6th 

What I believe happened is the rotation into the Dow came to an abrupt end, and the rotation did a hard left back into gold and gold miners, but also, after the S. Korean chip rally was vacated, the Bank of S. Korea signaled a pivot into gold. Look, BOK buying physical gold isn't a strategy, it's a hostage video. Above my paygrade.   

The Rotation The Talking Heads Finally Copped To - Energy: That's the kiss of death. 

The other new all time high that's already begun to unwind. Healthcare. Because bankrupt nations can't afford things like higher Medicare costs.  

Semiconductors remain volatile af, and not too easy to predict. You're on your own there.    

The kicker is that the cycle seems to be wrapping up right around a key Options target:

August Options Expiration Friday

 Like I said: I think we'll see another breakout on Gold, and it could take some time for the smart money to offload their gold miner shares to unsuspecting retail investors.

Same goes for Bitcoin: You don't typically see a parabolic 3 day move - like we just saw - come to an abrupt end. For instance, the top in S. Korean chips took several weeks to gain any downside momentum.  

How long can rotation trades continue to fuel the broader rally? Not much longer, I'm afraid. 

In fact while the talking heads continue to fan the flames on dollar weakness, I'm hiding out in bonds, which continue to consolidate just below the 50 week moving average. 

 

CAVEAT EMPTOR 

P.S. is a Latin phrase that means "let the buyer beware". It is a principle in contract and commercial law which states that the buyer takes the risk of a product or property having defects or poor quality unless a warranty is given or fraud is involved. Source: AI Overview

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Monday, August 17, 2026

Market's Trading Near All Time Highs - Trade It or Fade It?

Spoiler: I'm Fading it. When I see the $VIX being hammered to new recent lows - for no other reason than because low summer volume makes it easier to manipulate the $VIX... I get nervous.  

The rotation in and out of AI related micro sectors (chips -> mag7 -> $NVDA) continues. And when that trade isn't working money flows back into the drill baby drill trade (energy) - as we saw again on Friday. 

$DJSOEP (Dow Oil Exploration & Production Index) Trades to new all time highs. Bloomberg shrugs.


To be honest we haven't seen the Nasdaq lead stocks higher, since that 4 day rally - after the last FOMC announcement. 

$COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) trades back to the top of the range. Struggling. Energy takes over. 

  


This morning we're seeing US tech being lifted by S Korea (again). Not interested in catching the next falling knife in chips.    

Now that earnings season is behind us - except for a few retailers (we don't trade): Watch for financials to unwind:  

Financials flashing warning signals on Friday, and the $VIX gap back to the 15 level - points to more manipulation for the time being, but like I said last week. You're better off enjoying the rest of the summer, and returning once the $VIX starts breaking out again.

My carpentry project is really coming along, and I'm hoping to have this wrapped up in time for the Labor Day holiday.   

We got the midterms coming up and Wall Street seems to be betting on another Republican win? That could be the catalyst for the next snap-back rally, but not until after we see retail hands shaken out. That offers a 2.5 month window for a sell off. 




 

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