Spoiler: I'm Fading it. When I see the $VIX being hammered to new recent lows - for no other reason than because low summer volume makes it easier to manipulate the $VIX... I get nervous.
The rotation in and out of AI related micro sectors (chips -> mag7 -> $NVDA) continues. And when that trade isn't working money flows back into the drill baby drill trade (energy) - as we saw again on Friday.
$DJSOEP (Dow Oil Exploration & Production Index) Trades to new all time highs. Bloomberg shrugs.
Chevron breaks out above $200. Bloomberg not reporting the breakout in energy stocks. Instead: "Oil wavers" @BloombergTV #SmokeAndMirrors
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 14, 2026
To be honest we haven't seen the Nasdaq lead stocks higher, since that 4 day rally - after the last FOMC announcement.
$COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) trades back to the top of the range. Struggling. Energy takes over.
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This morning we're seeing US tech being lifted by S Korea (again). Not interested in catching the next falling knife in chips.
Now that earnings season is behind us - except for a few retailers (we don't trade): Watch for financials to unwind:
Bearish shooting star - US financials (mostly banks, & insurance companies). pic.twitter.com/E4mAGfrHDT
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 16, 2026
Financials flashing warning signals on Friday, and the $VIX gap back to the 15 level - points to more manipulation for the time being, but like I said last week. You're better off enjoying the rest of the summer, and returning once the $VIX starts breaking out again.
My carpentry project is really coming along, and I'm hoping to have this wrapped up in time for the Labor Day holiday.
When the market sucks, do carpentry. Paint your kitchen. Go fishing. Return, when the $VIX breaks out. pic.twitter.com/cGwi1sa2Ni
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 14, 2026
We got the midterms coming up and Wall Street seems to be betting on another Republican win? That could be the catalyst for the next snap-back rally, but not until after we see retail hands shaken out. That offers a 2.5 month window for a sell off.
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