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Sunday, October 25, 2026

The Real Market Bubble - That's Flying Under Everybody's Radar

Not AI. Not Big Tech. Those are required to keep the 20-year bull alive.

ENERGY

The bubble almost nobody is talking about is the place everyone ran for cover after Trump’s tough talk (Independence Day Sanctions) crashed the market: the same trade that has been driving European equities into bubble territory. The “safe,” boring, dividend-paying value stocks—specifically the megacap energy names that continue to serve as the ultimate investor hiding place. It is the only sector still trading at all-time highs.

Wall Street hates the C-word (competition) even more than the I-word (inflation). Just look at how T-Mobile is being crushed on the prospect of going up against SpaceX/Spectrum. Energy is no different. Oil drilling is an ancient technology facing real, incremental competition from nuclear capacity additions and low-emissions hydrogen.

Same subject showed up in an AI query the next day. One of those uncanny coincidences:


Fun Fact: ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are the two largest integrated U.S. oil and gas companies, both tracing their roots back to the historic Standard Oil Company founded by John D. Rockefeller.

Here Comes The Midterms & The Battlefield Is Already Taking Shape:

  

Fossil-fuel firms in line for billions in benefits after answering Trump’s donation call - and Democrats Are Furious 

"The estimate of $190bn savings for industry is calculated from existing tax breaks and subsidies over the next 10 years plus new benefits delivered by the One Big Beautiful Bill...

In addition to an estimated $201m investment in Trump’s re-election campaign, industry executives contributed $19m to his inaugural fund, which the report described as “the largest political investment the industry has ever made”.  (theguardian.com)


The Battle For Alaska 

 Alaska is a Republican stronghold in an energy-rich state: The stakes are so high that the Trump administration’s Justice Department is threatening to sue to preemptively block certification of the Senate results if Dan Sullivan loses (citing a second candidate with a nearly identical name). Sullivan has made the 807-mile natural gas pipeline the centerpiece of his re-election. A loss to Mary Peltola would remove its most influential Senate advocate. Even if Peltola has expressed support for the pipeline and local refining, her broader platform aligns with national Democrats’ focus on restoring renewable tax credits and alternative infrastructure. A broader Democratic gain in either chamber shifts federal priorities away from traditional fossil-fuel subsidies.

Someone is making a lot of money... and doesn't know how to keep their mouth shut  

Three things are still driving the energy bubble right now:


  • The Trump Trade: from “Drill Baby Drill” to the ongoing “Bomb Bomb Bomb… Iran” posture, straight from the McCain/Lindsey Graham playbook.

  • The Safety/Value Trade: fueled by the inflation narrative and higher yields. Before you can say “20-year Treasuries,” the algos have already rotated capital. They call it safe. I call it the ultimate value trap.

  • Dumb retail money is all-in: once crypto cooled, the crowd found nano Crude Oil Futures on Coinbase Derivatives and DEX tokens representing crude. You couldn’t have planned a cleaner setup for the moth-to-flame trade.

We’ve seen this movie before: Peak-oil theory was pushed hard in 2008 right before the trap door was flung open. Oil is likely to make the biggest short-term reversal; energy equities will follow.


Energy became the alt-rotation trade out of tech. It is now acting like the FOMO names it replaced.

That turns the “safe hiding place” into a value trap. The bubble flying under everybody’s radar is not

in the technology still needed to drive the longer bull. It is in the ancient technology everyone decided

was the place to hide.



John McCain Sings the outro: "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran"




P.S. 

P.S. Friday’s Fast Money episode provided a textbook example of the institutional legacy media playbook. Resident chart monkey Carter Worth whipped out an OIH-to-XLE comparison chart to pitch a convenient "catch-up play". Right on cue, the panel nodded in synchronized agreement. Tim Seymour dutifully disclosed he is long his favorite component of that index, but let's be real about the architecture of financial television: when the microphones turn on, the talking heads are paid to talk their own book. It’s an elegant system designed to manufacture retail demand right at structural technical resistance. If you like SLB, look at the actual tape—it's trading right into another Head & Shoulders pattern—rather than buying the smoke being blown on cable TV. Trust the charts, not the scripts. 



You like SLB? Then show the chart - trading into another H&S - rather than blowing smoke.   


That concludes the dumb money segment. 

Trust the charts; not the talking heads.  
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