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Saturday, November 22, 2025

Global Unwind Makes Way for Black Friday Deals

Is the selling about to accelerate to the downside, and spoil the single most important spending season of the year?

Year-end Sell Cycles in Recent memory

  • 2009 - Global financial crisis aka the great recession  
  • 2016 - The original "Taper Tantrum" + and unwind in China  
  • 2019 - Trump Crash #2 (The first was the night he was elected) - Steven Mnuchin finally had to threaten to call in the Plunge Protection Team, in order to save Christmas. 
    Global slowdown fears, and valuations blamed. Sound familiar? 
  • 2020 The Covid Crash + the most obscene money creation, and government spending spree in history (the gift that keeps inflating).  

The Proof Is In The (still up 25% since 2022 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)  
Pudding

The bad news? 1. Higher housing. 2. Higher local Taxes. 3. "" Utilities. 4. Higher insurance costs. 5. Higher healthcare costs. 6. Savings are drained, credit card balances are maxed at 24% APR. A cheaper turkey doesn't fix that.


 Three Big Reasons This Unwind Feels Different (and Uglier)

 

  1. We’re still fighting an inflationary mess we didn’t have in 2019. Real wages for the bottom 80 % are still negative six years after the pandemic began. The economy is not strong. 
  2. The market is more bifurcated than ever. Strip out the Magnificent 7 and most diversified 401k's are flat or red YOY since November 2024. That bubble is already leaking air.
  3. We now have the most divided, wishy-washy Federal Reserve in modern history. Half the FOMC still thinks we’re “higher for longer,” the other half is quietly begging for 50 bp cuts the minute the S&P drops 10 %. No one trusts them to act decisively in either direction — and markets hate nothing more than a confused central bank. 

The Charts Remain Broken   

I actually placed the sell order on Friday, before cancelling it; after I found Fidelity was going to hit us with an excessive trading violation. A topic for another day.    Meanwhile: the Bitcoin unwind spills into the rest of the market, and CNBC and Tom Lee blow smoke, claiming it's a computer glitch! See Friday's blog [link] 

Possible Grinch-that-Stole-Christmas Scenario… Or Dress the Windows?  A 15-20% draw-down into late December (tax-loss harvesting + bonus redemptions) triggers margin calls and retail panic. But history says don't bet against the rally: Late-year dips often front-run January inflows, with the S&P up 79% of the time in that seven-day window, averaging +1.3%. The Fed might blink with cuts, Q4 GDP gets revised down from +2.5%, but new-year money has to go somewhere—potentially muddling through with flat comps and a mild bounce. 
  
Or the Grinch wins, and Black Friday slashes turn desperate. Either way, I've snagged early deals—because if the unwind bites, at least I scored a new BIG SCREEN TV, and that will distract from the 401(k) statement.

Take Care, AA  

P.S. Word on the street is Trump is about to drop a UFO/ alien technology bombshell reveal any day. 

 I'm deadly serious! I was convinced the moment I watched it being telegraphed in the Bret Baier interview... 

Watch it for yourself..:  

 


   

 

 

 

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Friday, November 21, 2025

2025 Bears Throw Tantrums - Bulls Make Excuses

I hate to brag, but If I continue to get it right every day like this, the SEC might start taking a closer look at my tweets. I swear; I'm not in any way trying to manipulate markets. I'll leave that to the Pros @ CNBC.   

To be honest I wasn't sure whether to wear my bull hat, or my bear hat to work, because I look at everything 15 different ways, but after the bears took the bait we laid yesterday [link to chart], and after buying the 3rd dip in a week  - raising an obscene amount of capital - at yesterday's $VIX high, I have to stay bullish. Yep, I'm biased, and I'm not going down without a fight. The charts - yeah - they're broken, but they can be unbroken, as we've seen 100 times before.  

If I'm wrong; I'll simply go to plan b (if you can't beat em join em).    

Yesterdays Bear Tantrum 

$NDX - the updated chart view 

 

The 30 min. chart worked like a charm. I'm not sure what everybody is so freaked out about. Yes,I know, it was a big red candle. 

Yesterday's Sudden Unwind was Textbook 

 The Bulls thought they had the bears trapped going into the Thursday Options Expiration (0DTE), and the bears were having none of that! 

I even tweeted a clue as to what we were witnessing, but I didn't offer the chart. I never offer my best charts, because I know traders won't pay for what they can get free. 

I do wish I had saved a copy of the chart for illustrative purposes, but you'll have to use your imagination. 

Yesterday's Play by Play  

$TECS (the 3X leveraged Tech bear)  

1. $TECS price action was hammered below the 50 day moving average - at the open. Nothing new; We see these kind of dirty tricks nearly every day in 2025.

  

2.  Simultaneously the $NDX trades into the right shoulder target. 

3.  NVIDIA is sold at the same Right Shoulder target - Tweeted  


Shortly thereafter the NASDAQ retreated back below the 50 day ma, and that triggered the algos, and every trader who was paying attention. Sudden unwind. 

Grok Summed it up Famously

That $TECS chart is the ultimate visual for the segment:

  • Every single time the bears thought they finally had tech cracked (2023, 2024, summer 2025), the rug got yanked and $TECS went straight into the woodchipper.
  •  Today’s volume spike to 12.1 M shares (highest since the July 2025 squeeze) is literally the bears throwing one last tantrum before Thanksgiving… 

Still Waiting For The Dust to Settle 


Tom Lee’s ‘Glitch’ Viral Video Highlighting the Crypto Crash  

From Yesterday's Featured Cast of Characters Segment @ CNBC, Tom Lee (the guy who has called 18 of the last 2 Bitcoin bull markets correctly) explained that the entire $400 billion crypto wipe-out was just a ‘mechanical glitch’ in perpetual futures.

The Host, Brian Sullivan the one we like to 

call "BIG EARS" → claims he hates the term glitch, listens closely, then - 

with a wink and a nod - 

declares this is ‘the most important 

interview I’ve done in years.’ Really? 

 Watch For Yourself 


 

Translation: bagholders, please don’t look at the rising real yields, record ETF outflows, or the dollar ripping to 2-year highs. It was the algo’s fault.”

As someone who covered the now infamous Flash Crash very closely (in fact I was on stock charts publicly calling for a crash that same week - true story [link]), this looks like the 2025 Version of ‘It Was Just a Fat Finger’ – Same Script, New Title 

 $MSTR - 30 min. chart - No glitch found, Selling looks very orderly, even during the accelerated selling we saw, going into yesterday's close. No boogieman.  

 


 
Tom Lee moving his Bitcoin floor from $250k to $88k isn’t a glitch – it’s a white flag.


Have a great weekend. 

Take Care, AA  





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Thursday, November 20, 2025

Tipsy Rally, Sober Reality


I absolutely nailed NVIDIA (post earnings) reaction 1000%, BUT I'm afraid that this so called, "market recovery", is not all it is cracked up to be. NVIDIA's 5% bounce on light after hours volume, is  like your ex boyfriend calling you at 3AM for a hookup. 

 The NVIDIA Twitter Storm 

 3.2k views is a contrarian indicator 


After nailing the direction on NVIDIA yesterday evening - yeah I often work late and that makes the difference... I also pay for 3 different software programs for the winning edge. What do you bring to the table?  

Bloomberg headlines claim that investors are soothed by the $NVDA print - more like lulled back to sleep, with the $VIX still trading well above 20. Tuesday's wake-up call [linked]   

The Bear Raids Continue 

$NDX (Big Tech) - classic bear bait 

 

 

Bitcoin Recovers only Slightly After Upbeat NVIDIA Earnings (Barron's)

If you were paying attention on Tuesday, you learned that Crypto is the barometer for Global liquidity [Link]  and anyone who continued to hold Bitcoin as it finally broke key support @ the 108k level is branded with the bag holder logo. 
 

 
 
The coveted 100k level was never support, it only provided the bull trap.  
 
Sue the SEC if you don't like the way Wall Street takes your money, they approved... 


 

Russell 2000 futures weak af - up .5% last I checked. That doesn't point to a recovery. 

 


That's It: I'm gutting the Public Charts Area; renaming it Mag7 on Death Watch [link] 

I'm also cutting short the window dressing series until we see evidence of institutional buying, and even then I'm 100% sure we're only looking at the beginning of the biggest global unwind in 100 years. 
 
Homework: Chart Europe and see where the real crisis is happening in real time.   
 
If not for EOY window dressing the rug would be pulled right here, but expect the perma-bear to TAKE the bear bait, before covering their short bets, once Nov. OPEX has passed.  
 
This holiday season please pass the gravy, don't be a Turkey 🦃
 
Take Care, AA  
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