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Sunday, August 17, 2025

Meme Stock Trades; Pump And Dump Stocks By Another Name

The dash for trash continued on Friday August Options Expiration with Clean Energy stocks. 

I alerted to the rally in green energy on the 13th, but it took a little time to put it all together  

 I could only find one outlet covering it, but this time it wasn't the WSJ. 

Clean Energy Stocks Keep Rallying barroncom 

They say a picture says a thousand words:   

Sunrun ($RUN) +32.82%  - Sunrun - along with several other solar names - was run up into August Options expiration for a big payday, for the crooked Hedgefunds.   




 

Pump-and-Dump: Definition, How the Scheme is Illegal, and Types investopedia.com 

Last week it was Pot Stocks 

 

$CNBS  (Amplify Seymour (Tim) Cannabis ETF) 


 

$MSOS (AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF) you'll find this one was heavily pumped on social media, before we saw a little run for the exits, heading into Friday's close.

 

 Pump-and-dump schemes generally target micro- and small-cap stocks on over-the-counter exchanges that are less regulated than traditional exchanges. Micro-cap stocks—and occasionally, small-cap stocks—are favored for this type of abusive activity because they are easier to manipulate.2 Micro-cap stocks generally have a small float, low trading volumes, and limited corporate information. As a result, it does not take a lot of new buyers to push a stock much higher.

 

Pump and dump schemes are nothing new but Crypto has added fuel to the fire  

 A study conducted in 2018 examined the prevalence of pump-and-dump schemes in the cryptocurrency market. Researchers identified more than 3,400 such schemes over the course of just six months observing two group-messaging platforms popular with cryptocurrency investors.

 

This illegal scam has really accelerated over the past few year, with meme trading, and meme coins.

Even the Trump family seems to be getting in on the action  

$TRUMP coin is pumped to $100 and dumped. Today we see it trading down around 90%. 

 

I've been keeping a running list of Pump n Dump Stock. Of course we've seen this playbook before, but not on this scale. 

I'm convinced that this trend has helping fuel speculative animal instincts in the AI sector, and buy the dip mentality we've seen in the broader market over the past several months, even years.

A New Generation of ‘Buy the Dip’ Investors Is Propping Up the Market wsj.com msn.com

For many Wall Streets pros, this is yet another sign of froth at a time when stocks, especially the biggest tech names, are historically expensive. The meme-stock trades are rekindling memories of the dot-com boom.

 

Meme-stocks is just a cutesie name the hedge funds decided to give the ol' pump 'n' dump, and I don't believe for a minute that retail investors are "propping up the market".  
 
Beware of falling knives, like the one we saw in pot stocks on Friday 
 
The vast majority of new traders are of the "buy and hold" variety, and the inevitable unwind, may ultimately wipe out an entire generation of investors, just as we saw during the .com crash. 
 
 
Take care, AA  

 

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Friday, August 15, 2025

Healthcare Sector $UH Soars on Perfectly Timed Buffett Press Release + INTC $INTC "" August Options Expiration

Wrapping up the previous blog topic; 

Global Banking Collapse in Focus Chinese Equities Tencent $TME Chart

 ; see my chat with @GROK AI. 

 Although we did see Chinese stocks collapse at yesterday's open, the amount of debt on Evergrande's books is more manageable than it was at the height of the crisis in 2021.   

China will continue to provide stimulus measures, and even buy up bad mortgages, in order to kick the proverbial can down the road...  

INTEL (INTC

INTEL Stock soared late in the day on Thursday, on rumors that the government is considering taking a stake in the company. This comes just days after CNBC Fast Money recommended it, earlier in the week. 

Even @GROK agrees with my assessment of the INTEL $INTC rumor which was published late in the day on Thursday (1 day before August Options Expiration) looks highly suspicious. 

 

Healthcare stocks have been on a tear for the past 2 weeks. This was before the Buffet effect kicked in with yesterday's press release. Again, just in time for August expiration. 

$CURE 3X leveraged Heathcare Bull -  I saw this coming a mile away  

 


$CURE is up another 3% in pre-market trading 

 

 

The rest of the market looks pretty shaky, and I suspect the controllers have their sights set on 6500 (psychological target) on the $SPX. 

$NYSE -  You hear a lot about the market trading at new all time highs, and certain sectors are... but US equities as a whole remain stuck in a range, and the breadth is terrible.  




 Take care, AA  

 

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Thursday, August 14, 2025

Global Banking Collapse in Focus Chinese Equities Tencent $TME Chart

 Yesterday I touched on the collapse of the 2nd largest real estate developer in China, Evergrande calling it "China's Lehman Bros. moment".

According to a recent business insider article: "Evergrande was 300 billion in debt, the most out of any company in the world". businessinsider.com

 That's enough to cover the entire debts of Vietnam ($144 billion), the Philippines ($118 billion), Cambodia ($22.4 billion), Laos ($10.2 billion) combined.


Out of Singapore China 

China’s property crisis hits new low with Evergrande delisting thestraightstimes.com

Evergrande’s downfall is by far the biggest in a crisis that dragged down China’s economic growth and spurred a record of distressed builders.
PHOTO: REUTERS

  "Evergrande’s downfall is by far the biggest in a crisis that dragged down China’s economic growth and spurred a record of distressed builders."

  •  Evergrande's debt is HK$350 billion, with liquidators deeming a holistic restructuring "out of reach"; asset realization has been "modest" at US$255 million.

Anyone who was following the Evergrande story back in 2021, when Evertgrande defaulted on their debt, remembers what a big deal it was, and what it did to Chinese equities

KWEB  (China Internet) destroyed in 2021

 


So why is there practically no coverage of what's going on in China today?    

I find it hilarious that the western media attempts to downplay Evergrande's collapse as an "awkward moment", and as I tweeted several times yesterday, the financial TV news has opted to avoid drawing any attention to the event at all. 

It was not listed as a top story by either CNBC, or Bloomberg. 

I watch a lot of financial news, and I didn't see it mentioned even once, In fact, CNBC Fast Money just last night was telling uninformed investors to invest in China, specifically $KWEB, and Tencent!  

I'm going to assume these people are compromised, and just doing what they're told. 

We all know what happened to pot stocks after they set the snare.  

$TME (Tencent) takes out my primary wave "(5)" target 

 


Tell the retail investor everything is fine. "All is well", and laugh all the way to the bank....   

Financial Collapse in Focus 

Back to the collapse of Evergrand and the possible contagion (fallout). 

The powers that be must be scared shitless, and the last time I can remember anything like this was when they failed to report on the Covid outbreak, as government insiders were allowed to quietly exit the market. 

 $DJUSFN US Financials mostly Banks - another sector CNBC (insiders) constantly recommend.... 


 

 Without giving away any downside targets, the chart shows several false breakouts, followed by a back-test of resistance. Tomorrow is august OPEX, so perhaps it continues to trade UNCH going into weekend, just as US equities did before Covid was reported (the Monday after Feb. 2020, OPEX)   

China to Offer Subsidized Personal Loans to Get People to Spend More breitbart.com  


 Perhaps this latest ditch effort will be enough to keep global markets from collapsing outright, but time will tell. 

In the meantime take care, AA  

 

 

 

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Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Covering the Massive Rally In Small Caps, the Dow Jones, and China ($HSI), as Markets Breakout to New All Time Highs

 After watching stocks consolidate for nearly a month we finally saw a massive 3% move in Small Caps yesterday, which I alerted to at yesterday's opening bell.    

 

Here I am alerting to the bullish setup on the Russell 2000 (IWM), on Friday  

 And I'll bet you a nickle CNBC Fast Money missed the boat again.

Speaking of Fast Money, yesterday evening I called out their resident "chart master" for plagiarism, when I noticed him regurgitating the same chart that the gold bugs have been floating around for a week. 

To document: 

Of course the Dow is also rallying, as I predicted in Sunday's blog, and by the looks of it, this rally is just getting started!    

$UDOW (UltraPro 2X Dow Jones bull) the updated chart from Sunday's update below 

 

If you watch Bloomberg, you'll notice all they report is good news, on 

'hopes of a fed rate cut in Sept.", while avoiding the real China story.  

China's Lehman Bros. moment 

Evergrande delisting is awkward moment for China Reuters 

 Unfinished residential development by China Evergrande Group, in the outskirts of Shijiazhuang

I haven't seen Bloomberg TV mention this breaking story even once, and they've even updated their set in order to keep investors focused on nonsense. Smoke and mirrors.   

 Expect more smoke and mirrors, until the inevitable, comes into focus 

 

 Take care, AA


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Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Covering the Recent Amazing Run in Pot Stocks Tilray $TLRY, and Apple

Funny, I was just blogging on this sector over the weekend - comparing it to the recent pump in gold miner stocks - and low and behold the entire space was up 20% yesterday!    

 

Trump weighs reclassifying marijuana as less dangerous drug, WSJ reports msn.com

 Of course pot stocks have been rallying since early July, and this story is old news, no doubt revived so that traders can offload their shares to retail investors.  

This isn't the first time we've seen the WSJ use their platform to manipulate markets. 

Grok AI confirms my due diligence:

 Tilray $TLRY - since Grok mentioned Tilray I decided to pull the chart from my junk folder, and have a look. Sure enough, it was up 40% yesterday, but as you can see, it only traded 9 cents higher than it did last week. 

If you're dumb enough to trade that junk, you'll want to keep an eye on the 200 day ma... lol

$AAPL was also recently driven above the 200 day moving average; triggering program buying.

  


That set up for a 4% Friday rally, but I can't say I like Apple at these levels.

 I think the market makers have become overly complacent driving the market using only a handful of stocks, and the short squeeze Friday's are wearing thin. 

Take care, AA


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Sunday, August 10, 2025

The Biggest Pump 'n' Dump Trade Since Cannabis Stocks

Continuing from Saturday's blog [linked] on what's really driving markets; Trump headlines, memes, and foreign investors, along with a lot of speculation in Crypto, and AI.  

One sector I didn't mention that has driven the market since the beginning of the year, is utilities, and that's another sector I think you want to stay away from! 

 One sector more than any other has outperformed since the beginning of the year, and that's precious metals and the gold miner trade.   

It could be that Gold rallies when Trump is in office, because everybody knows Trump loves gold

Apple CEO Presents Trump 24K-Gold Gift atlantablackstar.com

 But Gold is also considered a safety trade, and especially when investors think the $USD is at stake. You've all heard the headlines. 

 $HUI (Gold Bugs) I've created the simple chart below to help illustrate what's really behind this gold miner rally. The blue lines are parallel btw 

 


Another trade I think you want to stay away from 

 Looking for a trade that isn't being pumped on CNBC? Try the leveraged down bull the $UDOW

 


 Take care, AA 

 


 

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Saturday, August 9, 2025

Trump Headlines Continue to Drive Market Direction: Precious Metals Gold Silver Miners, Crypto, and Tech Stocks - my take

Trump Headlines Continue to Drive Market Direction: 

Precious Metals, Gold, Gold & Silver Miners, Crypto, AI/ Tech Stocks, helped lead the NASDAQ to another slightly higher closing high on Friday. That makes for good headline risk, but not much else. 

It was more of a retest than anything else   

The previous high was on Monday, July 28th, where the $VIX popped on a bad Jobs Report, and Trump's firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner. That caused stocks to reverse, and that painting a bearish engulfing candle on the chart, and drew some bears off the sidelines.  

In hindsight that turned out to be another bear trap, and short covering on talk of a Russia deal helped add more fuel to the fire on Friday.        

 


I think another thing that's helping to drive markets is an increase in speculative money coming out of foreign markets.

India Loves Gold 

 Israel has also recently pulled back, and low and behold a bullish call on gold miners is published at the Jerusalem Post 

 

With 24/7 trading coming into existence, and the US market increasingly open to foreign investors, not to mention the evolution of program trading, we are currently trading a market environment unlike any other in history, and it's important to try to stay on the right side of the trade.  


 

Trump Headlines Help Drive Precious Metals 

 The Rally in Precious Metals continued, with the help of some fake news on Friday 

Gold prices are on a rollercoaster after a curious tariff ruling that the White House called ‘misinformation’ CNN

 “The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future clarifying misinformation about the tariffing of gold bars and other specialty products,” a White House official confirmed to CNN on Friday afternoon.

 We've seen this playbook used before, and especially on weekly options expiration Fridays. Typically a rumor is widely reported, only to be walked back, after Friday's close.  

Today is Saturday, and I still can't tell you what the truth of the matter is. 

A Trump Executive order also helped drive Crypto markets going into the end of the week. 

 Friday CBS NEWS 

Trump wants your 401(k) to access crypto and private equity. Here's what to know. cbsnews.com

Forbes Saturday 

Trump Just Dropped A $12.2 Trillion Crypto Price Bombshell—Sending Bitcoin, Ethereum And XRP Sharply Higher Forbes Saturday 

But wait there's more...!  

Trump crypto firm plans launch of public company that will hold family token Furtune.com 

 

The next Trump news is set for his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday August Options Expiration   

 

Trump says his meeting with Putin to take place in Alaska on Friday Jerusalem Post

This could be another wild ride this week! 

Take care, AA  

 

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Thursday, July 31, 2025

Copper, A Warning Of Things To Come?

This morning, we're seeing a lot of hoopla surrounding $META, and Microsoft $MSFT earnings - but now that the $VIX has been hammered back below the 15 level, we've traded into what I like to call "Groundhog Day" markets. Same thing every day, futures green, market ends little change, or slightly higher - which is reported as "ALL TIME HIGHS" - but at the end of the day not much to write home about. The market Bears must feel like they're stuck in financial Purgatory, or worse... but this is how it usually goes over the summer break. Pigs fly, and Bears get slaughtered.

The $SPX at yesterday's close was only trading about 100 handles above where it was trading on July 4th.  

CNBC's so-called Chart Master Carter Worth put out the warning not to own the $SPX because he's seeing a double top on the Dow Jones, and small caps aren't leading. I actually tried to help him see the light, but I'm afraid there's no hope for him.  

This is the same buffoon who told investors to stay on the sideline at $VIX 60 lol 

It's no wonder CNBC is unmercifully mocked as FAKE NEWS 

  

Sector Rotation   

There are only a few select sectors which have led the entire April rally, and those are Materials (including miners), speculative Tech, and believe it or not, cryptocurrency.   

Copper  Crashes -20%  - You'll find that the mass distraction, lame stream media, is very careful not to use the word crash, to describe what's happening in copper, yet if we saw a similar move in crypto, you can bet they would be reporting it as a crash.     


Copper is hyped on social media, and on Bloomberg, and elsewhere, and copper crashes 2 week later.

 

Copper tumbles 18% on Trump tariff surprise sending Sandfire, BHP, and RIO shares lower

 Miners 

Anglo American posts $1.9 billion loss, cuts dividend, as restructuring continues

 We're no doubt seeing some margin calls in copper, so it's probably a little oversold in the short term. Watch for a rebound back above the 4.60 level, and if you need me to tell you that, then you shouldn't be trading copper.  

What other sectors which have done all the heavy lifting, are still being hyped? 

Big Tech  

Big Tech for one, although AI stock, and Semiconductors have seen bigger gains... 

Perhaps Mag7 catches up this morning, but that remains to be seen.   

$MSFT trades into bubble territory; leaving another massive gap behind.  

 Crypto 

Cryptocurrency continues to hold up, I found Peter Schiff's observation on the sector profound 

 I've noted the same thing and even went a step further... 

 

CNBC article being pumped by NBC in Chicago  


At 10 years old, Ethereum's future is brighter than ever despite recent setbacks

I couldn't resist trolling CNBC Fast Money last night, after they had Ethereum's inventor on... 

 

 

 

This blog has already run too long. 

I'm going to offer you the same advice I tried to offer Carter worth, DIG DEEP. Compare sectors. 

 

 Take Care, AA 

   

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Thursday, July 24, 2025

$SPX hits 6400 - Best Trades of the Week + More Charts

 The dash for trash continues in a meme trading environment, but most these short squeezes seem to be short lived. 

 CNBC's Carter Worth gave up on Ethereum only 2 days after pumping the trade last week. Shameful! 

See last weeks blog on that subject:   

The Crypto Trade, Bitcoin $IBIT, $XRP, The Stablecoin Act, and the $USD

 This week it was: Kohl's, GoPro, Krispy Kreme,  

 And look at who's behind it! 

 



Jim Cramer says Kohl's short sellers should ‘cover and move on' 

I'll trust the charts to guide me, rather than the master's of manipulation at CNBC

 $KSS - This view of Kohl's from my junk folder. Some of you may recognize this classic chart pattern as, "the rooftop of death".   

 


I suggest the short sellers double down, and I'm sure many did... that was a golden opportunity! 

Yesterday, we saw GoPro lose 40% of its value (from the highs) over the course of the day.   

$DHI DR Horton - up 12% for the week. 

 


I didn't bother updating the (above) chart, but I think you get the picture.

Here's another chart that's working  

$TXN Texas Instruments  - Pumped (to a new recent all time high) and dumped, and I suspect you're about to see a lot more of this in the near future.  

 


Today's Trade  

The trade that's getting the most attention this morning is Google, which the lame stream media (of course) pumped ahead of earnings, because the numbers were clearly leaked... 

My heads up on the situation: 

CNBC falsely claiming Google was on some sort of winning streak 

 The Gap Target is obvious, but it seems to already be overbought - trading near the top of the channel 

 

Look, if the best the market makers can do is memetrades, and short squeezes, in order to help lift the lousy $SPX another 75 points (1%) (over the course of a week), I got no use for that.  

I suppose their psychological target on the $SPX is 6500, and that can easily be achieved, at the rate we're going, but don't become too complacent here, because the $VIX was just hammered to a new 3 month low.

 

Take care, AA  

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Tuesday, July 22, 2025

S&P 500 Closes At New All Time Highs. $SPX Closes Above 6300. HotStock Picks!

 "S&P 500 Closes At New All Time Highs", "$SPX Closes Above 6300" - the folks at CNBC are either trying to make the market sound more exciting, or they're trying to help the hedge funds offload their shares to the poor retail investor. I'll let you decide... 

Fun Facts concerning the Lame Stream Media of Mass Distraction: 

These 6 Corporations Control 90% Of The Media In America businessinsider.com

  

Business Insider Infographic 


More Fun Facts 

The 11 Richest CNBC Anchors moneyinc.com 

Hey, something doesn't add up here!: 

#11 Brian Sullivan 

  • Birthdate: July 19, 1971
  • Age: 52
  • Years on CNBC: He has been on CNBC since 2011
  • Current Position: Anchor and Senior National Correspondent
  • Notable Achievements: Brian Sullivan has been working in financial news... 

  • Salary: $100,000
  • Net Worth: $2 million

    •  No wonder he always looks so happy! 

    Hey, did you hear the news that only 7% of stocks are trading at new 52 week highs? 

    No, these are not the media companies that control us - leading the market higher - but the big tech companies who seem to have taken their place. Just compare Viacom, and Disney's stock to that of Google, and Facebook...  but I digress.     

    More recent headlines:   

    Banking giant updates S&P 500 end-year target

     In a Monday investor note, the banking giant projected the benchmark index would end the year at 5,600. This target suggests an 11% decline from the current value of 6,335. 

    Did you catch that!? They raised their year end target to 5600! 😕 

     Here's another good one: 

    Goldman Sachs Raising Price Targets on 4 Stocks That Could Explode Higher 247wallst.com 

     Of course Goldman Sachs doesn't work for free, any more than Jim Cramer does, so you should already know this is exactly what I talked about in yesterday's update. The smart money unloading their shares to the retail investor. 

    I decided to chart a few of these names, and what I found is noteworthy. 

    1. Amphenol $APH - (tech) 2 consecutive Doji reversal candles spotted at the upper part of the range. 

     


    2. Jabil $JBL trades back above the top of the top of the range. This one could consolidate above the 210 level, for some time, before it comes crashing down.  

     


     3. BorgWarner $BWA - this one topped out in 2014, and now we see it trading into a bearish H&S pattern. If it breaks out here, it could squeeze the short sellers, but I wouldn't hold my breath... 

     Call me a "cynic", but I don't believe any of it. 

    Be sure to catch the previous update, where I include several charts and make a stunning prediction! 

    Take Care, AA  

     

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    Saturday, July 19, 2025

    The Crypto Trade, Bitcoin $IBIT, $XRP, The Stablecoin Act, and the $USD

     Quick Recap 

    In my last blog I predicted a reversal in the $USD and we got a reversal in the $USD. 

     That is, until it bumped up against the 50 day moving average, last week.   

    $USD  - is sold at the 50 day moving average. Also see the general shape of the pattern on this chart, a broadening triangle, or reverse symmetrical triangle, as Elliotticians call it. I'm seeing this pattern on lots of charts, and points to plenty more volatility in the near future.  


     The Broadening Top Pattern on $XRP for instance 

     $XRP whipsaws back to a new high 


    Speaking of Elliott Wave theory it seems like, more, and more nowadays, the EW system is becoming less useful, and that's because of machine buying, and slight of hand (manipulation), rather than human emotion moving markets - I've touched on this many times, in previous blogs - BUT I think it does work in highly emotional markets like crypto.

    Many investors seem to think that because markets have whipsawed back to new highs, that must be bullish when that is more indicative of a highly emotional market. 

    The Crypto Trade     

    Most recently the smart money ran crypto up, right into July Options Expiration, which just happened to fall on the day of the passage of the Stable Coin Act. How smart is that?!     

    This is a good example of why you should always be watching the calendar for buying opportunities. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's seeing July Options Expiration as a capitulation point, and the retail investor is already being encouraged to "buy the dips". 

     I personally prefer to buy the dips, and sell the rips, especially in a highly volatile market like Crypto.

    Warning this trade is not for the faint of heart, and attempting to trade the leveraged crypto ETFs can be even more deadly, where a 20% daily move is NOT at all uncommon.    

    Broader Market  

    It seems like we're back to trading a market that can't even pull back, and that's an unhealthy market.

     I watched some clown come on CNBC, after Friday's closing bell, trying to convince the retail investor that "momentum" can carry the market higher, but the truth of the matter is that momentum has slowed drastically, and we have a Fed meeting coming up.

    If you follow my X platfom feed then you should already know I'm extremely bearish Crypto, and especially when you see it being pumped on CNBC fast money, after more than a 100% run (in Ethereum, and several other memecoin). 

     Pinned Tweet Friday 

    A couple details I failed to mention in that tweet is that CNBC's so called "chart master" didn't even have a crypto chart to show... and this is their standard MO. They pump whatever is running hot, for ratings.

    He also said "Everyone should own "Bitcoin & Ethereum" lol   

    The only reason they're talking about Ethereum at this point is because it was the only thing rallying last week. Believe me, I watch the tickers every day, and this continues to be an otherwise dull market.  

    Charts talk bullshit walks, so let's get to the charts.  

    Bitcoin $BTC  

    Bearish Leading Diagonal Triangle Pattern spotted on Bitcoin Saturday Morning 5 min. Chart View 


    Longer term, I'm seeing what looks like a spinning top candle on the weekly chart, so maybe we don't see a major reversal until next week. This gives the smart money plenty of time to off load their bitcoin to the retail investor, as we trade into the next FOMC meeting. 


     I suggest you pay for TradingView charts if you want to trade Crypto. You can always use the free version, at LiveCharts.co.uk charts, but you can't save... and that puts you at a huge disadvantage.

    Another option is to chart the Bitcoin ETF $IBIT

    $IBIT  

     This is the bullish EW forecast I came up with on Friday, and tweeted out on the interwebs 

    If that EW count is correct we should see a sharp correction in a powerful correction in wave "C" 

    I suppose we could see a relief rally, on the FOMC statement, and that may continue into next Friday.  

     Not all the news on Crypto is bullish despite all the hype you're seen being pushed by the networks, and on social media.   

    JPMorgan sees Stablecoin Market Hitting $500B by 2028, far Below Bullish Forecasts CoinDesk

    Take Care, AA 


           



     

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    Tuesday, July 1, 2025

    New All Time Market Highs $SPX. Short Squeeze Emerging Markets, and the $USD Trade

     New All Time Market Highs. These headlines are designed to spurt animal instincts, but I suppose, it's also supposed to scare the EW counters, because new highs rule out wave 2 in a bear market. 

     Look, new highs mean nothing to me, as I stated in a recent blog. 

     "The market has only traded back to the same Trump/ Biden era bubble levels, we saw 6 months ago, and the market remains in dire need of a real correction." 

     All you have to do is go back and look at where chasing the new all time highs in 2021 got you, or even the provide highs, which were no doubt orchestrated. 

     New York Stock Exchange - seen retesting the new all time highs again 


    We've already seen several new all time highs, on several indices including the $QQQ, yet it seems like the talking heads weren't satisfied until we closed out the first half of the year, with a new high on the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ.   

     What's funny is after yesterday's close Bloomberg drew more attention to the historic sell-off in the $USD, and the rally in EM (Emerging Markets).... almost as if they are rooting against the $USA, and I have no doubt that they would like for nothing more than for the USA to go bankrupt under Trump. 

    I feel like these are some of the dumbest people on the planet, encouraging investors to abandon the US, for foreign markets, and I'm prepared to bet against their false narrative. 

     Short squeeze $USD - The $USD short is a crowded trade. The bear's stop hunt on the $USD is the 100 level. I don't believe we'll see that stop hunt triggered, for at least a couple more months, but in the meantime I think we could see a breakout above the 97 level.  

     


     I have no idea what the catalyst for a breakout above the 100 level is going to be, but it's probably going to look like another SHTF moment. Could be a trade war with Japan, since the last carry trade unwind drove the $VIX to the 60 level. 

    Take Care and have a great 4th of July holiday, 

    AA   


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    Friday, June 27, 2025

    Sentiment Indicators + Nike $NKE Update, + Banks

    This morning I was watching Bloomberg Surveillance, because it comes on after Bloomberg Europe, and as bad as that program is, it's still 10x better than CNBC Europe.  

    If you have never had the displeasure of watching CNBC Europe it looks like they spent about $99 on their set, and they can apparently only afford to pay 1 reporter to cover the globe lol  

    Track and yield: Nike earnings boost European sportswear stocks CNBC.com

    Nike says tariffs could add around $1 billion to its costs this trading year as it looks to reduce its reliance on Chinese production in a bid to offset the impact of President Trump’s trade policy.

     Nike - is up 10% in pre-market as the dash fo' trash continues. 

    I got Nike right by the way. It was an easy call. 

     
    Watch for a test of the 200 day moving average, right around where it's set to open.  

    Sentiment 

    I've been wanting to touch on the topic of sentiment for a while now, since we no longer see bullish capitulation in markets. More on that in a minute.     

    So, I'm watching the town idiots on Bloomberg (New York), and I see them giggling about something, and so I decided to turn the sound up... and as it turns out what they seem to find so funny is that sentiment has turned from bearish to bullish in only a few weeks/months.  

    This in itself would NOT be at all unusual, even in a bear market, and it seems like only yesterday that we were trading face melting rallies in 2008, some of which lasted for 3 months, and that seems to be about where we are in this cycle. 

    But why would they find it so funny that sentiment had shifted? I'll tell you why. 

    1. It's because these Bloomberg hosts, and the globalists who are working behind the scenes, absolutely hate Trump, and his supporters. They must think MAGA investors are all bullish now, when they know as well as I do, that the final leg of this rally is a bull trap, and the fact that markets are testing new highs during the summer is a big red flag. 

    "Volume precedes price..."; as they say  

    I don't know how many fleeting summer rallies we need to see go down in flames, before retail learns to stop chasing low volume rallies, but apparently that trend needs to continue....  

    2. The Bloomberg Surveillance narrative that sentiment went from one extreme to another is also hogwash.      

     Sentiment indicators never reached extreme levels, back in April. In fact the market didn't even need to form a base... In fact, only 1 week after Liberation Day, markets were off to the races again in a historic short squeeze. 

    That doesn't point to bullish capitulation. It points to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). It also points to market manipulation - a topic for another day.

    The market has only traded back to the same Trump/ Biden era bubble levels, we saw 6 months ago, and the market remains in dire need of a real correction.   

    Sentiment indicators agree 

     I know the bots like to point to CNN's new sentiment indicator a lot, but I'll trust my own indicators any day of the week, and I can tell you that the bearishness we saw in April was shallow, and brief, and you didn't see the type of Put buying you would expect to see... 

     In fact we saw far more bearishness when the regional banks began to collapse in 2022. That event caused real fear in markets, yet the radical left wing lame stream media was quick to bury the issue. 

     Today we see CNBC Fast Money pushing the toxic banking sector.  

    That's their job, to sell you on the idea that everything is fine.  


      

     Take Care, AA 

     


      



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