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Tuesday, November 18, 2025

The Fuse Is Lit, But the Clowns Are Still Juggling Dynamite

 
Horrific day for Markets, yesterday? Not so much, not on the surface anyhow. 

  • Mag7 down a measly -.22%
  • Small Caps barely retested the lows - where's the risk-off sentiment?
  • Window-dressing season in full swing 

The big boys still have to levitate the indexes into month-end, so they get their year end bonuses.

Meanwhile, in reality:

  • Japan −3.22% overnight → worst single-day drop in seven months (PM Takaichi openly talking war with China over Taiwan – yes, really) KOSPI down 3.50% 

  • $DJUSFN Financial index just hit a fresh 3-month low in the most violent reversal we've seen since the regional banking crisis. Goes unreported! 
  • Crypto - the bloodbath returns, and CNBC loves it! Maybe because they associate it with Trump? idk Seems to be a love/ hate relationship...  

CNBC's already in full panic mode, but not over the prospect of WWIII, in the south pacific—NO—they're rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic, as it's sinking!

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Sunday, November 16, 2025

CNBC’s Disney Pump Fails—China’s Ghost Loans Ignored

Friday's Pinball Action 

Friday’s Pinball: Weak Hands Flushed at Open  

Crypto, AI, and CNBC’s favorites trashed at the bell—FOMO panic in full swing.

Same network that pumped crypto, AI, and quantum moonshots… now engineering 

a clumsy bear raid—just before Q4 window dressing.

CNBC's Disney Debacle 

Disney (CNBC’s Dow darling) — wiped out the week in one session.

Dow breakout? What breakout.

CNBC's Trust Crisis in a screenshot: CNBC Pro users give the pay service a Trust Pilot score of 1.5 OUCH! [link] 

 

From the Highlights Reel: 

  • Tim Seymour Cannabis stocks crashed -16% - OUCH! Didn't I warn you..?  
  • Crypto helped provided the kindling for Fridays fire sale. Bitcoin down another -3.8%     
  • Energy stocks ended higher, and had that 
    Weekly options expiration + window dressing—SEC asleep at the wheel

  • China sold off with the US financials, after China is busted cooking the books again.  

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Friday, November 14, 2025

Michael Burry Capitulates - The Real Driver of Yesterday's Sell-Off

Digging for Cockroaches with GrokIn doing a little due diligence into the cause of yesterday's sudden sell-off—I thought I better do a thorough check under the hood for any hidden cockroaches—so I employed the help of my trusty AI sidekick Grok.   Question:
Pre-market weakness, seems to have started overseas. Anything popping up on your radar? India, Japan, Germany, ECB? Also can you find any information on this story I'm seeing in my TOS live news feed?

UBS Alli McCartney on CNBC Squawk Box

“There are a lot of reasons we should be seeing more volatility than we have.”
(37 min. ago, CNBC.com)
 
Cue the $VIX—which landed right on the magically bearish 20 number as we traded into Yesterday's close. (Soft landing? More like a fear spike—up 15% intraday on the tech rout.) Soft landing on the 20 target – documenting the "bear trap" setup. 

 One quick TOS screenshot and query later:  Grok's Radar: Nothing Flagged 
You're spot on that the U.S. pre-market dip appears to be bleeding in from Asia and Europe, where mixed economic signals, currency pressures, and sector-specific slumps—nothing catastrophic, but enough to amplify caution ahead of U.S. CPI data later today. [edited for content]  In short: Nothing stands out. As for the CNBC segment I highlighted (in the screenshot above): Volatility remains low because the holidays are coming—and what does the $VIX measure? Expected volatility. What does the market expect over the holidays? Low volume/low vol. This is not rocket science.  One Reason CNBC Might Be Pushing the Bearish Narrative:
Disney earnings face-planted—and that no doubt contributed to some of the selling we saw yesterday. BUY BUY BUY SELL SELL SELL  Here I am rubbing salt in the wound:
Walt Disney trade obliterates CNBC Pro traders 😂 $DIS 
  Then CNBC prime-time Squawk Box brings on a guest to talk up volatility? This stinks to high heaven! Same bear trap I warned you about weeks ago. I'll have to search for the link... 
Burry's Fold: Capitulation or Capital Call?The real cockroach? Michael Burry's exit. Reuters broke it yesterday: Scion Asset Management deregistered with the SEC as of Nov 10—shutting down after $155M AUM.

Burry's sin: Massive PLTR puts (50K contracts, $9.2M premium, 2027 expiry) to call the AI top. $PLTR pulled back... but holds above $150.  Bears on the Street? Took it as pure capitulation. The Big Short guy bailing amid "rigged markets" and "accounting tricks" (Nvidia, MSFT depreciation games)? Cue the sympathy dump—tech led the rout, Nasdaq -2%.  My take: Not flipping bullish—it's capital preservation. Burry tweeted: "On to much better things Nov 25th." Two years tied up on slim-odds bets? Smart fold to reassess. Still laser focused on the AI bubble.  Winning's not about making BIG predictions. It's:  

  • Patience: Wait for the iron hot. 
  • Adaptation: Walk from the table. Reassess.
  • Discipline: Plan B to fight another day.

Window Dressing: Mag7's Revenge

Update to the public charts folder—Including yesterdays #1 under-performer in the Mag7 space

—the one they love to hate—TESLA $TSLA. Managers pretend Mag7 doesn't matter. Sell Tesla? Fine. We've seen the script. Q4 dressing: Buy the beaten, bury the bombs.
CPI May Cut Through the FakeryOverseas noise? Meh. Burry? Tactical retreat, not a white flag. CNBC? Peak fakery (fuckery)—Disney dump + VIX pump for clicks. Eyes on 8:30 AM ET: CPI.
  • Hot print? Mag7 bleeds—capitulation feels real.
  • Cool print? Trap snaps—VIX craters to teens, dressing ignites.

Iron's cooling—but patience reloads. Fade it. Position. Stay ahead. — Veteran Market Timer
November 14, 2025 — Pre-CPI Cockroach Hunt Take Care, AA  

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