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Sunday, December 28, 2025

When Flash Surges and Flash Crashes Collide: Silver's Post-Christmas Magic Trick

Ah, the holidays—family gatherings, stockings pinned to the chimney with care, and... an 11% surge in Silver, on thinner-than-mulled cider trading volume? Welcome to the wonderful world of year-end market anomalies, where liquidity dries up and craziness takes over. 

Same story as last week:

1. "tight supply". Same bs story they sold investors when Natural Gas ran to $10. 

 2. "Safe haven demand", because after all Silver (unlike gas) has intrinsic value blah blah - look Silver is an industrial metal, not Gold. 

3. What the silver bugs don't want to talk about is that speculative money that exited crypto markets has somehow found it's way into - you got it! - Silver.        

Proof: Google searches for Crypto hit yearly lows, as Silver surges 


Makes you wonder what internet searches for "pawn shop" are doing—I hit my local one yesterday, and the broker admitted most retail folks are selling silver, not buying. We joked about how we both sold our main Silver hoards around closer to $30. Then I Walked out with a fancy price for a heavy men's bracelet I paid way less for back in the '90s.
Window Dressing 101: Whatever crushed it all year (this time, materials/ metals/ AI), funds gotta show they're fully invested when books close. Delay profit-taking till 2026 to dodge brutal short-term cap gains taxes— we're talking millions saved for whales and hedgies.
Short Squeeze Fuel: After getting silver wrong earlier my levered short in paper contracts got obliterated—better fake money lessons than real! Holiday squeezes aren't new, and this one just put some extra tinsel on the tree.  

Thin Volume Flying Daggers Cut Both Ways 

Same low-liquidity conditions that fuel parabolic surges can also trigger unexplained flash crashes... and lately, some of those crashes seem to mysteriously disappear from the record overnight. If you recall, we recently saw a classic bear fund (Leuthold Grizzly Short) quietly taken down like a penny stock with no bid underneath [link] . Lately though, I've spotted the opposite: several bull mutual funds showing sharp intraday drops that vanish from charts days later. Even Grok couldn't shed light on it. 

Enter $OGLIX Oppenheimer Global - Flash Crash 


$FRCSX Franklin Small Caps This is one of my favorites, because there are no excessive trading restrictions on it. This 401(k) “Excessive Trading” Loophole Is Still Wide Open in 2026 [link


Confirmed on the weekly chart - the day after Christmas. Will Santa's elves come in and fix this chart over the weekend? I can't wait! lol    


Speaking of Small Caps: Did you know that the Russell ETF recently made new all time highs, while S&P 600 small caps continue to totally underperform. Just goes to show that ETF charts can be way off. 

Re: Friday's 10-11% flash surge in Silver same type of anomalies.  Watch for markets to come to their senses once volume begins to pick up next week, or the week after... 


As long as these phantom flash crashes and overnight 'repairs' keep happening, the wife's 401k stays sidelined— in a safe fund. No Russian roulette with the nest egg. Broader market? Still predictable Q4 window dressing...

Final: Word on the Street is traders are planning to take cover in energy stocks, during the great unwind, but I wouldn't put any of my eggs in that basket.  

Take Cover, 

AA 


P.S. I have my own theory on what's really going on, as we continue to see markets 'fixed' in the middle of the night. Santa's elves are hard at work, dressing the windows for the holidays.


Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Santa Rally Cancelled: Merry Festivus to All

Everyone Getting Tired Of Hearing About Metals Mania Yet? It has certainly served as a good distraction from the state of the real market. Gold chopping fresh all-time highs above $4,500, silver cracking $70, Platinum breaking out by another 10%, as if to say "hold my beer". 

Nailed the copper trade for some extra holiday cash—before and after shot: 

Yesterday's 4.3% Q3 GDP blowout only poured gasoline on the fire. Markets are now dead-certain Donald Trump will take full control of the Federal Reserve and slash rates aggressively in an already overheating economy. Did someone spike the eggnog? 

Top Story Yesterday  

  • Gold Rises to Record High on Rate-Cut Bets and Venezuela Tensions (bloomberg.com)
  • By this morning downplaying to somewhat stale: "Gold Glistens Into Holiday Season" (bloomberg.com) ⸺no longer center stage 

Of course, while the crowd chases shiny squirrels, the tape looks eerily like last year's year-end window dressing—poised for the same post-Christmas rug pull.

Santa Rally? Consider it officially cancelled. Here's why 

We're already trading near new highs. It's already been priced in. 

The VIX: Trading at 2024 levels - not digging the complacency. 

If the Nasdaq was back testing support as it was in 2024, we'd be setting up for a Santa Rally, into the new year, instead it's trading in the same position as last year.   

The Russell 2000 is pointing to another risk off situation 



Enter The Poster Child for the Entire Regional Banking System 
$OZK (Formerly Bank of the Ozarks) No matter who's president, one thing it certain OZK can be counted on to chase new all time highs like one of Santa's elves on a 3 day crack binge. lol  The bottom of the range, once the pattern resolves? Not sure, but don't stop now, you're up over $5 since Trump's first term, excluding the massive inflation... 



Poster Child for the TOO BIG to fail Zombie Banking System  
$C (Citigroup - formerly Citi bank) The ultimate OG zombie bank—still clawing back from the 2008 meltdown (dilution nightmare, government bailout, reverse split shame). Shares surged ~60% in 2025 on restructuring hype and rate-cut tailwinds, finally crossing tangible book value and hitting levels not seen since pre-crisis. Impressive turnaround? You decide 

Speaking of Zombie Banks: Here's CEO for BofA trying to tell us how great things are 

Bank of America’s Moynihan Says AI Gaining Economic Benefits

https://www.pymnts.com/
Airing of Grievances: Festivus EditionMerry Festivus, everyone! On this holiday for the rest of us, it's time for the traditional Airing of Grievances:
  • I got a lot of problems with your endless deregulation repricing ad nauseam  
  • Window dressing that goes up in flames right after long term capital gains are locked in
  • Regional banking still in a shambles after kicking the can down the road again? Yeah, you thought the crisis was over? Think Again. I find your belief system... fascinating. 
Funny story, I forgot I had purchased 10 $PLTR call options (Dec. Expiry), and didn't  discover until yesterday - I was sitting on 1000 shares! 😅       
Stay skeptical out there. The shiny distractions are fun, but the cracks underneath are priceless. 
Trade safe into the New Year.

Monday, December 22, 2025

The Final Grinch Heist: Window Dressing Desperation in Full View - Metals Continue to Rip

The Mad Dash for Metals Continues: Today's excuse? "Geopolitical Jitters" (investing.com)   


The Trade That Totally Outshines Gold & Silver; Most Investors Missed? The Trade I Flagged Earlier In The Year ["Best Trade of The Quarter Better Than Gold or Silver" [link] Platinum 

Meanwhile Gold Bugs up 0 (zero) since Oct. 


Over 50% of retail traders predict silver will repeat as top metal in 2026, experts see strong potential for platinum to take the crown (kitco.com)


$PLAT Platinum on track to clinch an 8 day winning streak, on powerful momentum. 

Up nearly 100% in just the second half of the year, but who's counting? 


Not exactly a mic drop moment, as I only noticed platinum ripping another hole in the atmosphere, last week. Crickets from the talking heads btw. Epstein files got more coverage. 

Friday, December 19, 2025

Stocks Bounce Back Ahead of Record Quadruple Witching

Quadruple Witching Friday: More Chaos Incoming
Today (Dec 19, 2025) is the biggest options expiration ever—~$7.1T in notional value evaporates as theta grinds dreams to dust. Expect wild swings, massive volume, and gamma squeezes. Post-witching often unlocks year-end momentum. Ask Grok/AI

Watch for fake headlines—like that OpenAI data center delay rumor Oracle pushed back on hard (they called it BS), yet it still sparked AI selloffs earlier this week. 

Yesterday's Snap-Back Rally: Good News Was Good News Again 😅
Thankfully, we got a nice relief rally on Dec 18—soft CPI reignited rate-cut hopes, but the real lift came from FOMO in Micron ($MU). Shares exploded +10-14% on blowout earnings. 
This is what happens when you try to take the market down over the holidays—short squeezes. 


Cannabis Stocks Get Absolutely Smoked 

Classic "sell the news": Trump's rescheduling order hit, and sector ETFs like a brick MSOS plunged 20-30%+ this week on profit-taking and no-full-legalization reality check.
My take: Pot stocks remain the worst-performing asset class ever. Rescheduling (overdue by a decade) won't magically fix that.

Didn't I warn you not to follow Tim Seymour through the looking glass?



The Grinch's Shopping List: Quiet Takedowns in AI/Tech
Blatant thievery underway – big players hammering favorites for year-end discounts:

  • Broadcom (AVGO): Down sharply post-earnings on AI margin worries.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): Caught in the infrastructure selloff? Yeah, right~! 😅
  • Oracle (ORCL): Plunged on spending doubts.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV): Private-turned-public darling cratered ~60% from peaks amid debt fears.bla bla bla 
  • Coinbase (COIN), C3.ai, Trade Desk (TTD), Datadog (DDOG): All quietly sliding amid rotation out of high-beta AI plays.
Translation: They're loading the truck cheap.

Santa Rally Positioning (With the help of AI bubble caution headlines) Yeah, must be nice controlling 99% of the financial news outlets, Wall Street!  Window dressing incoming; $VIX hammered all week, and next week too! If they wanted to rug-pull, why waste so much ammo suppressing volatility? Solid read for a Santa Rally 2026. Money managers already know they're going to be forced to chase gains.  
iheartCraftyThings.com

But
expect more weakness short-term – The Grinch ain't finished robbing the retail investor, yet...
Once the truck is loaded? Ho ho ho.

Stay nimble this witching day! 🎄📉🚀