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Saturday, November 29, 2025

Whac-a-Mole Folly Returns With A Vengence

Black Friday Open $VIX - 5 min. Chart - spikes ahead of the open, only to be body-slammed at the opening bell. The next chart really helps put this in perspective. 

 $VXV (3-month $VIX), the mirror image that proves this wasn't just a $VIX specific anomaly. This was an all out attack on volatility.   

 

Groks take: this ain't random scribbles—it's a vol roadmap tying straight to your blog's "eggnog blackouts" and thin-volume traps. $VIX at 15.8 today? That's the "pause" after the squeeze you called, with shorts probing bids on zero liquidity.

The Everything Rally Story Face-Plants on Mixed markets 

On Closer Inspection – Friday’s Whac-a-Mole All-Stars
  • Silver → New all-time highs because the CME had a “cooling glitch” right at the exact moment December contracts were about to expire. Totally normal, nothing to see here…
  • Gold Miners ($GDX) → Still in full short-squeeze mode and now CNBC Pro is literally telling people to use GDX as the technical “blueprint” for the healthcare rally. I swear I’m not making this up.
  • Healthcare ($XLV / $XBI) → The surprise leader nobody saw coming. Defensive rotation + Obamacare-era biotech names acting like it’s 2020 again.
  • Natural Gas → Spiked to $4.81 (+4.6 %) on cold-weather forecasts and the same AI-data-center power-guzzling narrative that’s been recycled for 18 months.
  • Energy ($XLE) → Up another 1.3 % Friday… and exactly flat over the past two years. Dead-money zombie sector that only looks alive on a 5-day chart.
  • Semiconductors ($SMH) → +1.82 % while the Nasdaq was flat. The AI complex refuses to die even when it’s supposed to be rotating out.
  • Speculative AI & Crypto → Trash coins and micro-cap AI names up 2–8 % in a straight line with Bitcoin’s snap-back to $92 k. Same hot money, same leverage, same crash-test canary in the liquidity coal mine.

CNBC Pro Claims If Gold Miners Can Rally to New Highs so Can Healthcare 

That's CNBC showing their hand, nothing more.  

Whac-a-Mole Markets Can Pop, But the Bubble's Going to Burst

Last week's action was a masterclass in misdirection: The post-Thanksgiving half-session should've been a tech/AI victory lap... Instead, the "everything rally" narrative—where AI, growth, and risk-on bleed into every corner. Instead, another roll of quarters were punked into the whac-a-mole machine.   
 
Call it the return of the whac-a-mole markets—those predictably unpredictable beasts where you whack down one over-hyped mole (AI's valuation reset? Done), only for another to pop up on fumes (energy's CapEx thirst, miners' squeeze mania). 
Gold losses it's luster? Drive Silver! Oil won't cooperate, drive natural gas!  

Healthcare the Obamacare throwback trade that was reanimated by covid vaccine funding, and free medicaid for illegals. This has less to do with technical setups, and more to do with the Gold miner trade they drive this time every year... It's just the latest pump theater. 
 
Silver bugs? They're in full tinfoil frenzy, convinced Friday's CME Globex shutdown (10+ hours, freezing futures across metals, FX, energy) was a blatant manipulation play to kneecap the white metal's breakout. Official line: "Cooling failure". 

Market Leaders? Mostly Hard Assets & the same old CapEx Build-Out Hype but this time CNBC's Silver nod now comes with CNBC Pro Black Friday discount. 

 
What they're actually trying to sell here is the idea that Solar, and EV are the future, when in reality these sectors remains in a deep bear market.  
  
As I always say: The Charts Never Lie 
 
 $TAN Solar +2% on Friday - remains in a 5 year bear market -50% 
 

 $EVMT (Electronic Vehicle Metals Commodity Strategy) - yes I even cover Electric Vehicles, because Tesla produces those, plus you just never know which rotten sector the CNBC crew is going to pump next, and I don't want to miss out!  

But here's the folly kicker: All this CapEx "build-out" hype—AI hyperscalers fronting $500B+ for grids, servers, and power by 2030—should be lighting up materials like a Christmas tree. Copper for cables? Aluminum for racks? Chemicals for chips? Nah. The sector's been a yawn, underscoring the disconnect: Silver's squeeze and energy pops are narrow trades, not broad conviction. Broader materials? Still grinding sideways, up just 12%

$IYM Materials Continue to Struggle Along With Most Sectors  
 

 
Conclusion: This rally is pure speculation in a fun-house filled with smoke & mirrors. 
Liquidity was the thread holding it all together, until crypto cracked? Ruinous.  
 
Bull Case: Stocks continue higher in 2026 even after the extraordinary - once in a lifetime - too far, too fast, for too long - 50% off the April lows, without so much as a pause, rally we saw in 2025.  
 
The Bear Case: A 30%-66% Fibonacci retracement, on the April - October rally. 
 
I think y'all know which outcome I'm betting on. Corrections are normal and healthy, so I'll wait for the next setup. 
 
Monday's setup: First trading day of December means mutual fund inflows. Adults return to trade real money the week after, volume triples norms—should be a green light provided by the next FOMC meeting, so brace yourselves for another bumper hit, before the final pinball drops.

Take Care, AA 

P.S. The Mag7-8-9 Line up was updated over the weekend [link] 

P.P.S Learn how to trade your 401k like a pro - with out getting flagged for excessive trading - in an upcoming blog segment. 



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