"...Buy Yom Kippur", is Still In Play - But The Wrong Sectors Are Leading

The trade I pointed to a couple weeks ago [link]: "Sell Rosh Hashana, buy Yom Kippur". I had my doubts - at the time - ... but the selling did - in fact - continue right though triple witching Friday OPEX (options expiration), and that probably completes the cycle. 

Yet the same sectors that rallied last week are still leading - Not Financial, not the healthy, broadening-out rotation trade, not Aerospace, not even small-caps. 

Speculative Buying in Semiconductors & Crypto Continues 

Tim Seymour (producer @ CNBC) claims semiconductors are vastly "over-sold" - my charts dispute that claim, but let's ask Grok/ai, for a totally unbiased take on the technicals. 

3Xtraders Prompt: You know a little about stock charts/technicals. Is the semiconductor sector oversold, and if so, by what measure?

Grok's response: The semiconductor sector (SMH/SOXX) is not oversold. Daily 14-period RSI sits in the mid-50s—well above the classic <30 oversold threshold—and price remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a 13–15% mid-year pullback from June highs that had followed extreme overbought readings (weekly RSI >80). That correction reset some excess but left the group in a neutral technical posture rather than a washout.

Semis Are Oversold Thesis Debunked 

What is the real reason Fast Money traders are piling into highly speculative trades rather than buying financials, and industrials. Here's the direct transcript from Thursday's the show [link to free muckrack/podcast] - Tim Seymour in his own words: 

Yup, he actually said that. Crypto's on fire too - but smart money isn't touching it

Cutting Through The BS 

CNBC Guest Katie Stockton nailed it:  08:06.469 --> 08:14.213

Well, the banks do look somewhat vulnerable, but everything has seen a pullback pretty much outside of the mega caps over the last two - three weeks.

A magic act so clever that most retail investors don't even notice.... but I cut though that mirage on Sept.10th [link]: 

"More *Broadening Rotations - More Broken Charts  

In hindsight while they've been levitating the market using the usual magic act (driving MAGS - including the only stocks that really matter ($NVDA, $AAPL, MSFT) higher, they were quietly unwinding the software-maggedon squeeze. Just as the msm told you the coast was clear?  

...but what may have flown under your radar (pun intended) is the great unwind in Aerospace (including Wall Street darling $GE - the one to watch) - and Airlines." 

Add to that home builders, retail (consumer discretionary) and every other sector they've unwound as earnings season approaches, and what becomes very clear is that we're about to see each one of these sectors window dressed (in Q4), as earnings come in miraculously, better than expected. 

That sets up for some of the Best Swing Trading in 20 Years [link]  

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