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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

FOMC In Focus - Don't Be Caught In The Headlights - Wednesday's Playbook

 

This pullback is starting to look like all the others — identical to every one we've seen over the past 2 years (minus the April '25 tariff crash):

The return of the Monday rug pull, usually starting overseas. I'm up at 2AM tracking it. Tiny moves, with obvious shakeouts below the moving averages. Mid-morning sell-offs on a glaringly low $VIX — looks like robbery in broad daylight. That's a tell.

Then comes the usual re-arranging of the deck chairs — the only stocks that matter. 


 

Even the revised script they're reading from is weak:
  1. AI doomers — Bill Gates plus a few politicians calling for regulation.
  2. Same old inflation story being parroted, this time calling for interest rate hikes to tank the economy — just in time for the midterms. These people have no shame.
  3. Here's what's not being reported: Europe is a mess, and we're probably seeing some contagion, but it's more fun to blame Trump for high gas prices.

Sorry if I sound repetitive, but it is what it is. European banks are collapsing right on schedule. Called it on Sept 10th:


Meanwhile, the same rush into hard assets — Crypto → Gold → Crude oil — is fueled by a vicious unwind in several safety trades, from Healthcare to Utilities. Don't take my word for it, chart it yourself. Homework: create a "sectors" folder and a "commodities" folder, and fill them with charts.

Same endless rotation in equities too — too many micro-sectors to mention. Good trading if you're able to cut through the noise and monitor what's going on beneath the surface, but that's way beyond what most retail investors can grasp in the little time they have to juggle trading with work and a social life.

I spend 60+ hours a week monitoring markets and searching for signals, and I guarantee I'm going to get it wrong much of the time. That requires serious money management, and I still can't say I'll ever hit critical mass. That probably sounds defeatist, but I'm a realist: 95% of retail investors fail to time markets consistently, and even if you find a system that works, you still need a market that provides a good trading environment.

Today's market keeps feeling like whac-a-mole — exciting at first, but it ultimately takes your money and leaves you frustrated. Ask the crypto investors who rushed to buy gold.

On Today's FOMC Statement

I prefer not to make predictions, but I expect the FOMC to stay deadlocked and for the market to shake the weak hands again. Sell the news — could be delayed a day.

I believe Kevin Warsh should call the market's bluff, although some market makers are looking for a "one and done." My take: there's no reason to raise rates, but a rate cut is also unlikely. The FOMC doesn't want to make a move during the midterms either. The market will likely throw a one-day tantrum on today's announcement — stocks to pull back, according to the chart.





$SPX is trending lower and the pattern's clear — a downturned wedge, or triangle. 

On a positive note: some of us are catching a nice bounce in gold miners this morning.

$NEM is the gold mining stock to watch:

$NEM is the gold mining stock to watch: 


P.S. My take on the AI regulation story, in a tweet:

AI is asking for regulation, but what they are getting is government protection, and immunity.

Analogy: Banks are regulated, so they are always bailed out, and seldom held accountable... instead we get more "hearings" (dog & pony shows), when they misbehave.

Big tech (AI) is…

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 16, 2026

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