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Friday, October 31, 2025

URGENT: Historic Blow-Off Tops, Fakeouts & The $SPX Bull Trap


After grinding through charts into the early hours, I had to fire off an update. The froth is palpable. We’re not just seeing one blow-off top — we’re watching two FAANG giants, Apple $AAPL and Amazon $AMZN, spike into euphoric exhaustion on the same morning.

And the headlines? Laughable. Bloomberg at 3:00 AM:
→ “Amazon, Apple Lift Mood”

Really? Even the financial media is trying to tamp down the over-exuberance — and failing spectacularly.

🔥 $AAPL – The Apple Chart Is a Hot Mess

Breakout on “good earnings” and iPhone hype?
Wrong. This is a classic bear trap — volume drying, RSI rolling over, and a failed breakout above $270.

Apple breaks out on good earnings and iPhone sales predictions – 10/31/25
 

📉 $AMZN – 60-Min Chart: Bear Trap in a Bullish Wedge

Doesn’t look any better than Apple. Bears thought it was a H&S — got squeezed.
This is bullish consolidation in a down-turned wedge. Incomplete? Yes.
Their MO: Trap bears, then run.

Amazon $AMZN 60-min chart – 10/31/25


🌏 Japan Re-Tests All-Time Highs… But Look Closer



This is not strength. This is distribution.

  • RSI > 75
  • Volume fading on the push
  • $YEN at 152 (BoJ asleep)
  • One policy whisper = 5%+ rug pull

Global warning shot. When Japan rolls, August 2024 will look like a whimper.

💀 $FI – The 3-Year Headfake Unravels in Primary Wave C

Fiserv ($FI) just triggered a powerful bearish Wave C, unwinding a 3-year "rally to nowhere."
The entire move from 2022–2025? A giant headfake.

Fiserv $FI chart – Halloween Bloodbath 2025



Tip of the iceberg. More mid-tier financials, payment processors, and "stable growth" names will crack.

🗑️ Speaking of Broken Financials…

Small-caps were dumped like trash to pump financials and megacaps.

  • $IWM flat YTD
  • $XLF +28%

That’s not rotation — that’s whack-a-mole desperation.

Russell Futures – 10/31/2025 @3Xtraders



🎯 $SPX Futures continue to churn around 6900 – The Psychological Trap

Why it matters:

  • Final barrier before 7000
  • Window-dressing season
  • Institutions must chase

But there’s time for a quick unwind — and they’d love to trap more bears ahead of holiday short-covering.

🛡️ The Plan: Rolling Puts, Doubling Down, Staying Early

If this stretches into EOY window dressing — like all of 2024 and the Biden era — I’m not fighting it.

Rolling puts. Doubling down. Extending into 2026.
I may be early…
But I’m seldom wrong.

⚠️ Final Warning: The Mania Will Continue — Until It Doesn’t

This AI-everything, rate-cut-hope, election-optimism, capex-bubble party will rage.

Even after the clinician unwind, expect FOMO rallies to shake out retail bears who’ve never seen a real bear market — not 10%, but the kind I warned about yesterday.

Mutual funds need benchmarks. Bonuses are on the line.

When the music stops?
Everything crashes as one.

  • Gold
  • Energy
  • AI
  • Tech
  • Small-caps
  • Financials

No sector left behind.

Protect yourself now.
I’m in the doctor’s office at 9:00 AM — missing the open.
Not worried about a reversal.
I’m worried about the trap being set.

Stay sharp. Stay early. Stay bearish.

— 3Xtraders
Friday, October 31, 2025 – 7:24 AM CT

📌 PIN THIS. READ FULL BLOG → 3Xtraders.com
☕ BUY ME A COFFEE

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Thursday, October 30, 2025

The Biggest Market Bubble in Nearly 100 Years

It’s 6:00 AM CDT on October 30, 2025, and it’s become glaringly obvious—over the past several weeks—that the bulls are running out of worthless sectors and meme trades to pump as we continue to trade into the BIGGEST BUBBLE I’ve seen in my career. Yesterday’s blog actually downplayed the severity of the situation: [The Most Obvious Capitulation Point in 20 Years](link). What we’re actually seeing is a liquidity trap, reminiscent of the Roaring '20s leading up to the 1929 crash. Investors seem to have a really bad memory, and as George Santayana warned, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Are we teetering on the brink of financial Armageddon?
 
Preparing For Financial Amrmageddon | King World News 

Connecting the Dots: 1929, 2008, and Today

  • 1920s Easy Credit: You’re spot on about banks providing easy credit to waitresses and cab drivers. During the Roaring '20s, margin lending allowed even small investors to borrow heavily to buy stocks, inflating the bubble. When the Federal Reserve tightened credit in 1928-1929 to curb speculation, it triggered a liquidity crunch, and the crash followed. The subsequent failure to inject liquidity deepened the Great Depression.
  • 2008 Echoes: Fast forward to 2008, and we saw a similar pattern. Easy credit fueled the subprime mortgage boom, with banks lending to risky borrowers. When the housing bubble burst, the Fed initially tightened conditions, then scrambled to inject liquidity via bailouts and quantitative easing. The term "liquidity trap" fits here too—low interest rates failed to stimulate borrowing or spending as people hoarded cash amid uncertainty.
  • Today’s Liquidity Trap: Your observation screams "liquidity trap" because we’re seeing near-zero interest rates (or close to it in real terms) and massive liquidity injections by central banks, yet inflation and spending aren’t responding as expected. Investors are piling into AI stocks and meme trades (like $PLTR, $TER, $GOOG), reminiscent of 1920s speculation, while economic growth stagnates. If credit tightens suddenly, it could mirror the 1929 and 2008 pivots.

Read more »
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Wednesday, October 29, 2025

The Most Obvious Capitulation Point in 20 years

AP Headline, October 29, 2025: Shares Surge Ahead of Fed’s Rate Decision, as Trump’s Asian Tour Sends Nikkei to a Record 

If that trifecta of wins isn’t enough, we also have the $SPX approaching the 7,000-point milestone, Dow sniffing 50k, and NVIDIA now the poster child for headline risk.

"Wall Street futures rise as Nvidia eyes $5 trillion market cap"

— Reuters

 

Of course CNBC's calling this "historic"—because nothing screams genius like valuation theory and round-number targets. These are not smart people; they're just really good at reading teleprompters. 


Don’t Forget about The Buffet Effect


The Pied Piper of Omaha has been luring wide-eyed investors into Japanese markets since Berkshire Hathaway first started scooping up “trading houses”, back in the summer of 2019. (many sources) 


*He even jetted to Tokyo in 2023 with heir apparent Greg Abel, schmoozing CEOs and vowing to hold these gems "forever."

morningstar.com


*It's classic Buffett: Borrow cheap yen via samurai bonds (he's issued billions since 2019, hedging at sub-1% rates), pocket 4-5% dividends, and watch the math compound while the BOJ keeps the party going.

businessinsider.com


*But here's the trap for the rest of us mortals—while Warren's got the firepower to weather a yen snapback, his fan club piles in via ETFs like $EWJ, mistaking his genius for a green light on the entire Nikkei bubble. It's the ultimate lemming lure: "If it's good enough for the Sage, it must be bulletproof." Spoiler: When the carry trade reverses (and it will), those "forever" trades turn into fire sales, and Tokyo's exporters get torched. Thanks for the vote of confidence, Warren—now pass the popcorn.

Black Swan Watch: Capitulation Incoming



Japan's 50K breach isn't just a number—it's the psychological peak, the "black swan" shadow we've tracked since August. Tokyo: the Japanese Nikkei 225 finally smashed through 50,000 target on October 27.

 

 




This isn't just a milestone; it's the most obvious market top I've seen in my career. And it's unfolding right as President Trump jets through Asia, charming leaders from Japan, to South Korea where a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping is set for Thursday.



Japan and its weaponized yen/ carry trade

 

 

  • August 7, 2024: Reviewing The Most Recent Market Crash – The Who, What, When, Where, Why of the Story
    (Global equities tanked as yen strength triggered carry trade liquidations, wiping out trillions in leveraged bets.)
  •  October 10, 2025: Weekly Wrap – Reviewing Friday’s Carnage
    (Another yen spike sent shockwaves; VIX spiked to 25, and we saw the first cracks in the post-summer rally.)


If you've been here from the start, you know Japan—and its weaponized yen/ carry trade—has been the black swan lurking in the global economy's shadow since that August meltdown. From Tokyo's endless BOJ interventions to how it ripples into U.S. Treasuries and AI stock valuations. 

 

The Everything Bubble: Japan’s the Fuse, But It's All Connected

This isn't isolated Tokyo madness; it's the canary in the coal mine for global excess. Gold, Bitcoin/ Crypto, and a hell-a-lot of AI hype? NVIDIA's "trillion-dollar" chase is just the latest symptom. China's wobbly, Germany's yield curve's inverting, and U.S. mega-caps are at 30x earnings. Japan's the spark—overbought, overleveraged, and overdue.Enter today's FOMC: 

Markets are 99% priced for a 25bps cut to 3.75%-4.00%, the second this year after September's easing. Powell's speech at 2 PM ET will be "data-dependent" code for "we're not done cutting," with 94% odds of another in December.

The Dog Whistle to the Short Sellers: 


*Spotted on Bloomberg this morning: Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's chief equity & quant strategist, dropping truth bombs. "There's a little bit too much exuberance," he said, noting derisive jabs at his S&P 7750 year-end 2026 target. 

 

Translation: When the street mocks your bull case as "not aggressive enough," it's time to fade the rally. Emanuel's no perma-bear—he's bullish long-term, even floating a 30% shot at S&P 9,000 by 2026 in a full bubble blow-off. Bloomberg.com

 

 

I see this appearance as a dog whistle to shorts: Load up, the top's in. And yesterday's VIX pop? That's the fear gauge twitching, confirming someone's buying put protection months out.


Take Care,

AA


*Researched exclusively by Grok/AI

 

 



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Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The plunge in Gold: "Healthy Correction” or the Start of a Metals Meltdown


Call it clairvoyance or pattern recognition—I’ve been waving the red flag on the Labor Day rally in metals for over a month, forecasting a pump-and-dump unwind in silver and gold. Lo and behold, spot prices in gold cratered below $4,000 overnight, following a brutal 5.7% single-day plunge on October 21—the sharpest one-day drop in 12 years. Not an entirely bogus headline. Didn’t I warn that copper’s crash was a shot across the bow? Check my July 31 call, "Copper: A Warning of Things to Come"? 

 

Headlines and Hypocrisy


  • Biggest gold slump in 12 years driven by profit-taking and fading safe-haven demand newindianexpress.com   
    True for that October 21 flash crash, but gold’s still up 52% YTD—context matters.

  • Citi downgrades short-term gold, silver price forecasts msn.com

    Who do you think Citigroup is trying to help slashing gold to $3,800/oz and silver to $42/oz"?  I'll let you ponder that...

 The "Healthy Pause" Myth: that's Bear Bait

A healthy correction does not begin with a flash-crash.

A 15% drop in little more than a week is NOT healthy - it's bear bait. The "healthy" spin is short-seller propaganda, echoed by outlets like Finbold, hyping 30% crash scenarios to flush longs. We've seen this story 1000 times before (yawn). 🥱

Short Interest in Rare Earths tells the real Story  

Short interest is off the charts 8 months, in $GLD (paper gold)

 

No Crash, Just an already Crowded Short Trade   

I could flood the page with broken charts, but we're still waiting on a valid chart pattern. 

So, far I've only identified: 

  • 5 wave move 
  • A possible range. 
  • A likely down-turned triangle pattern.  

 It always takes time for a pattern to develop after a reversal

1 Hour Gold - This morning view doesn't look any worse, given the broken 4000 - psychological support - level 

 


Coming from someone who predicted this pumped rally’s crash, I'll tell you, "the short side of the trade is already crowded". In a real gold/miner crash, $DUST, $JDST would see 40% moves. Despite the headlines, this doesn’t resemble a full crash; it’s a warning flare.

The Broader Market as an After-thought   

Most investors are too busy chasing the AI asset bubble, to notice the flattened forest through the trees.

See my latest warning in that realm in my spookiest Halloween forecast ever:

Sunday, October 26, 2025

The Halloween Monster that Devoured Early October Gains, Threatens to Wreak More Havoc.

Take Care, AA 

 

 


 

 

 


 

 


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