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Friday, October 17, 2025

Threading the Needle Through Market Turmoil

 

The $VIX continues to be walked like a 3 legged dog  

 Even this morning we saw the $VIX open at 28.99, only to sink like a stone, as the morning wore on.

I  alluded to this weak af $VIX in last weeks weekly wrap up, and here we are again  

Looks for the $VIX comments near the center of the page - in case you missed it 

 $VIX Puzzle: Orderly Sell-off or Orchestrated Move 

I'm sure most traders are looking for gloom and doom, but my outlook hasn't changed. As long as the $VIX action remains muted, I'm sticking with the plan, Stan. 

 $VIX - updated chart shows the breakout I saw coming weeks ago - and keep in mind China, and regional banks have been selling off during this time, and that is another topic for another day.  


 

Threading the needle on my own calls - feels like homework on steroids, but here's a glimpse of the map I drew months ago, which and a handful of truth bombs I offered on the X platform, going all the way back to July.  

 Deaf markets, Summer complacency, on a muted $VIX  

 

Warnings the Market Chose to Ignore



In hindsight, it's pretty obvious that the smart money drove the market into the summer, leaving retail investors holding the proverbial bag  

From The American Heritage Dictionary of Idioms [link]:

 "This idiom grew out of the earlier give one the bag (to hold), which dates from about 1600 and alludes to being left with an empty bag while others have taken the valuable contents" 


Cryptomania 

If you've seen screenshots of my tradingview platform, then you know that's the title on my Cryptocurency folder, and if you've followed me on X for any length of time, you know this is where I'm been beating the bear drum the loudest  

 The setup 


   

Comparing zombie-coin to the broken financial banking system - timely   


 Here's one even more poignant 

 

 

 

Have you ever noticed how markets are always driven back to a slightly higher heights, before the cycle repeats? 

The Pump 'n' Dump cycle  

 

Copper - I may have missed the top on copper, but not entirely. 

Funny some of the same people who told you to chase everything from China, to Pot stocks, to copper  where'd They Go?





The over-hyped Dragon


Those summer bulls pounding the table on China tech; 

I would say last night US markets "handing off the torch" to Chinese hedge funds, but China has led the entire sell-off.

Funny you don't hear Jamie Dimon making cockroach comparisons to Chines markets (concerning their shady valuation practices). 

 


 



The past few months of bearish alarm bells - which the algos can’t read. Algos know one thing/ technicals/ valuation (trap) and breaking news. Algorithmic trading programs may be what moves markets, but what it lacks is common sense.


A warning from the last quarter that still keeps me up at night? Gold miners - as past unwinds have proven devastating. 

 

The opening bell has already rung, and I got placed to trade including Ethereum Calls (not a typo) 

If  I find the time for a weekend update, I'll include a read on today's close ( I'm already expecting more weakness). 

 Stay tuned! 

 Take Care, 

AA  


 

 

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