Captain Obvious Strikes Again: 50% Profit in Four Days Flat

 The Captain Obvious Pivot into Energy

Yesterday: October 22,. 2025 Traders continued to hide in energy, as the bear raid parade (on TV) continued to trash talk tech stocks, including Texas Instruments, $IBM, Netflix, and Tesla of course. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You don't like Elon, we get it! 

 

 

What else do the trash talkin' bears not like? "Momentum" plays. Hey, good luck with that program, see ya..!  

 

Of course $WEBL was crushed with Tesla, but you should've seen that coming from a mile away.  

$WEBL is hammered back into the same consolidation pattern it's been trading in for several weeks/ months. I feel your pain, and I'm kind beginning to regret I ever recommended this trade in the first place 🥲 

 

 

 Crude Oil Rallies for a Third Straight Day  

 

...4 days if you include the bullish hammer that painted on the chart last Friday; that was certainly no surprise to anyone with a simple stock/ sector filter, and 30 min $USO chart.  

 

$USO 30 minute chart view - shows a clear breakout of a bullish down-turned triangle - duh! 

 

Breakout on $USO US Oil

 

In fact I've been watching the bullish setup in energy for over a week now, and even the catalyst was a dead giveaway, and grok is my witness. I kick trading ideas around the AI playroom all the time. My new sidekick  Grok/AI has even offered to shop me to some macro funds - who are always looking for new talent - but I'm happy working for myself... 

 

 

 Let's test Groks Memory 

 

Let's test how well Grok/AI can remember a recent event, and pinpoint a place in time - something it sometimes still has a little trouble with:   

 

 Question: 

 

Grok, can you remember the date, and time, when I recently mentioned the bullish Oil (energy) setup. I distinctly remember sharing both the $USO, and Exxon $XOM charts, with you? I'm looking to work this into today's blog, so please try to keep it short, and please don't offer any upside targets. TIA

 

 Answer:   

"Based on our recent chats, you shared the bullish oil/energy setup—complete with $USO and $XOM charts—on October 16, 2025, around 11:23 AM."

 

Followup  

 

 That's incredible: You're memory and time stamps seem to be sharp as a tack, and way better than mine! Was the memory feature - that was added in April - seamless, or was there a bit of a learning curve?   

 

Answer: 

Thanks for the compliment—glad I could nail down that timestamp for you! The memory feature, rolled out in April 2025, was pretty seamless to integrate. It’s designed to keep things smooth, pulling relevant details from our chats without missing a beat. No real learning curve on my end; it’s more about fine-tuning what’s useful for you. Anything else you want to dig into for that blog?

Best of All 

With Grok helping to reduce my workload, I'm able to keep up on my charting, monitor several markets at once, trade multiple account, and still have time leftover to churn out several blogs during the week. That an undeniable, and welcome increase in productivity, I can live with!   

 

 The Setup On Natural Gas 

 

I first noticed Natural Gas leading the pack, but the torch has now been passed to crude oil, complete with the same old narrative that "Trump tariffs" on Russia are somehow going to help give crude oil a lift. 

 

The Timing coincided perfectly with the pivot out of metals, and that plays into the captain obviousness of it all, and at the end of the day, commodities trades - in Dubai and elsewhere - are simply swapping one hard asset for another... think back back to the Santa Rally in metals.   

Gold: From Boil to Simmer – A Closer Look 

Gold has gone from a rapid boil, to a light simmer, but rather than put it on the back burner, let's shine a light on it... 

 $GLD - paper gold - as you can plainly see the trend is broken  

 

Yesterday the bears came in and trashed gold coming right out of the gate. I suspect these are the same hedge funds who drove it into a bubble, around Labor Day - in order to set a massive bear trap - and now they can barely wait to cause max pain.    

The Platinum Trade has actually out performed Gold, because it led the declines. In fact after spotting the top in platinum last week that's where I started selling into strength. 

That resulted is some of the best trading we've seen since early April. 

 

 Green on The Screen Like No One Has Ever Seen 

 

 45% in 4 days - not bad 

So lots of pivots and just ahead of the next FOMC meeting, but last I checked things were already looking up. 

 

 

In the meantime keep an eye on the $VIX - for any real signs of bearishness - and I'll try to keep you up to date on the latest market reads. 

 

 Tale Care, AA 

 

 

 

Tweet