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Saturday, October 18, 2025

Markets Recover, Crypto Continues to Stumble, Gold Miners Crack

October 17th, 2025 Options Expiration Friday - What a way to cap the week! After calling out the gold miners trade - at the open - by Friday's close, that vision had manifested into one of the biggest unwind in months. 

Gold miners recovered somewhat, by the end of the day, but it was still the talk of the town! 

Rally in Gold Miners Falters as Gains Outstripped Metal’s Surge Bloomberg

 Of course I had to celebrate by trolling the gold bugs with several stinging tweets!   
  •  Scaredy Cats called out
  • Silver joins the party  
Is the gold party over? I think, NOT by a long-shot 

 I think you're going to want to continue to buy the dips and sell the rips as I told you, back in Sept. 

 From my Sept 20, 2025 Update (Linked) 

 

"Gold Miners ($GDX): My top pick this week. Silver and gold miners caught fire into OPEX, with a monster swing trade. It’s becoming a very crowded trade; I think you're going to want to buy dips, and sell rips"

Update on gold miners  

Buyers stepped up at the 20 day ma, and the leveraged bear funds continue to be heavily shorted, by the heavily leveraged hedge funds. You know the drill. 

 $GDX bought at the 200 day moving average, of course 


Crypto Continues to Stumble 

October 17th, 2025 Once Bitcoin broke critical support at the 108k - the level I warned you about on Thursday - the bulls stops were swiftly taking out, and the rest is history.     

Bitcoin continued to struggle to find it's footing during Saturday's session: 

October 18th 3:35 AM     

 
 
Crypto’s Collapse: Wave C Crushes the Weak Hands



 Without unpacking the charts this powerful wave "C" was outlined in the blog below 
    
Saturday, July 19, 2025 The Crypto Trade, Bitcoin $IBIT, $XRP, The Stablecoin Act, and the $USD
 

 

 I alerted to that wave C, on X, a day earlier 

October 16th, 2025 - Powerful wave "C" confirmed - better late than never 


Broader Market Recovery 

 Kicking off with the so-called fear gauge: The $VIX spiked to 28.99 in the pre-market session, where it seemed to hit an imaginary wall. Was a lid place on it just below the 29 level? I'll let you ponder that.  
 
The $VIX proceeded to be walked off that early morning high - all the way down to the 20 level, and by the time the closing bell rang the bears must have been having deja vu that they had just been snookered again, and I'm kind of leaning into that narrative, since the networks are downplaying the fear, rather than  hyping it.   
 
Regardless... a Friday afternoon rally points to retail short covering, so we may not be out of the woods.    

What’s Next?

Expect more choppiness, and mixed markets, as tech earnings, and the next Fed meeting converge. I would expect a powerful snap-back rally in miners, after Friday’s rout, and a crypto rally at some point, but I’m keeping my cards close to my chest. 
Watch the $VIX and the moving averages for clues.

 To Review the month of October: 

  • Global Markets including China & Japan led the pullback, not regional banks
  • Financials - including regional banks - started selling off nearly a month ago
  • Markets over react to Donald Trump's bluster, bears paid dearly as their put evaporated...
  •  Crypto is dumped as earnings season kicks off. Remember when I told you there was about to he a re-balancing of assets in Oct.? 
  • Precious metals and miners correct on monthly expiration 


 Take Care, AA 

 

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