Page menu

Thursday, October 2, 2025

This Bifurcated Rally in Pharma & Metals Is Not What I Had In Mind...




Fleeting Fork: Why This Bifurcated Rally in Pharma & Metals Is a Trap (And Not the Contrarian Win I Called For)


By @3Xtraders, Chart Whisperer Extraordinaire

October 2, 2025 | Market Update (90% Brought to You by Grok—Because Who Has Time for Data Entry

When There's a World to Watch?)

I got slammed this morning after firing off this X query to @Grok.

Check out the entire interaction for more details on that query, including the "breaking news".  

$CURE (3X Healthcare Bull ETF) runs like a scalded chimp. Sloppy seconds, anyone? 



Grok nailed the trigger: Trump's tariff exemptions for U.S. pharma builds (e.g., Pfizer's $70B pledge dodging 100% import duties), per WaPo's "Big Pharma Scored" headline.

X chatter? Mostly skeptical—posts ripping Trump's "psyop" ties to J&J/Pfizer (e.g., Rob Schneider thread on Warp Speed backlash), plus biotech pops like $BNTX +4% on AI-vaccine buzz and $PALI spiking to $1.81 on trial approvals.

No FOMO frenzy—just wary vibes on the "relief" pop. So, yeah—I let Grok compose most of this update. (Shoutout to AI for the heavy lifting; I've got charts to fade.) 


Not What I Had In Mind 

Remember yesterday's contrarian call? I was hawking that sneaky rotation into "US Manufacturing stonks": semis shuffling ($SOX up a measly 0.8%, no rocket), pharma's 3-day pre-market tease fizzling by open, and aerospace (BA +2.45%, LMT +1.96%) leading industrials. Looked like engineered theater—Trump's tariff tango exempting the usual suspects (Pfizer drugs, Intel fabs). This could be the insider edge, I thought. Half-right. Half-wrong. Now? Full caution flag. The whisper turned into a sloppy "dash for trash"—retail FOMO into beaten cyclicals/defensives, chasing headlines like scraps at a fire sale. Not the clean moonshot; it's bifurcated BS: Pharma grinding on lobbyist "wins," metals squeezing on ghosts, semis overbought memes, and ROW (Rest of World) limping in a nuclear trade war. Low volume, RSI blowouts, divergences? This fleeting fork (think: rally splitting into defensives vs. cyclicals, both fakeouts) crests mid-October—earnings misses, China retaliation, 5-8% poof. Dissecting the heap with charts (headlines lie; patterns don't). Tying in Trump insiders' "buys"—his April "Great time to buy DJT" tweet sparked +22% on a tariff pause, fueling probes (Schiff/Murphy: insider whiff).

$IWM Russell 2000 ETF - It looks like it wants to go higher, but I'm already becoming impatient. 



Commerce Sec on Fox urging loads? Racketeering free-for-all. ProPublica: 14+ officials dumped pre-May plunge. Wall Street lobbyists front-run exemptions; we're stuck with sloppy seconds. (Crude? Edgy? My shark love note.)

Pharma's "Relief" Rally: Pyrrhic Pop

WaPo zinger nailed it: LLY +3.75%, MRK +3.25%, PFE +2.49% on U.S. plant waivers amid 100% tariffs.


Metals Mania: Squeeze Trap

Aluminum's +3% (DJUSAL to 115.44, +1.17%) echoes '22-'23 tariff ghosts—50-day hold at 113.22, but volume trash (0.57M vs. 1.2M avg), CMF on fumes. Trump's June 50% hike juices smelters short-term; China excess risks 110 dump. $XLB golden cross at 65.04 (+0.87%) pretty, but H&S neckline 62.30/flat volume yells mirage. Rare earths ($REMX to 60.73, +2.41%) channel breakout on 1.3M crush (China REE bans, NdPr +16% July), but RSI 72 overcooked—cap 64.81, fade to 58. Gold miners diverge (GDX +31% YTD vs. XLB +8.7%)—costs, not tailwinds; China escalation snaps the fork. ![DJUSAL & $REMX/$XLB Charts: Low-vol pop to 115/$REMX breakout/ golden cross, but descending channel/H&S/R SI 72 signal retest to 110/58/62]

Semis Shuffle: Capitulation Setup

$SOXX Semiconductors trade back to the top of the range 



No $SOX rocket (up ~1.2% pre-market, 6,290-6,375 bound). NVDA +2.6%, AMD +1.8%, INTC +1.2% on subsidies, but $INTC spinning top at 35.94? Red flag. $WDC/KLAC/TSM RSI 78+ memes, $SOXS -27% to 4.87 squeeze pain. 30-min $SOXX above 272.18 (RSI 78/STO 83) exhaustion; tariff dodges fuel, China caps. SOXS scalp to 6 on fade—not edge, trap. ![$SOXX/$SOXS 30-Min Chart: Breakout exhaustion above 272, RSI 78 hints pullback—capitulation scalp setup to $SOXS 6]

ROW Warning: Sell the Fade 

Europe (EU50 +0.94% yesterday, +12.41% YoY)? '25 lead fizzling—defense/banks +50%/28%, but earnings/euro/German mess? Sell to 5300 on auto tariffs. China ($FXI stall at 41.43, +24.48% YTD)? No breakout—resistance 43.73/thin volume; Alibaba +9% truce pop fizzles below 40.65 Fib if stimulus flops. Trump's tariffs shook safe-haven; ROW "boost" fleeting—pull before boot.


Bifurcated bounce crests Oct 15-20: Earnings (goods misses), IEEPA (Nov 5 SCOTUS), China REE escalation.

$FXI China- looks toppy 


S&P tech rotation triggers pullback—DJUSAS stall at 2,700. Hunch validated, but trashed. Buy dips below support, short pops. Missed 3-day? Me too—deck stacked. Charts don't lie. Stay starving, sharp. Next quiver? (Grok: 90% composed in seconds—data, teases, edge. Polish yours; I'm building AIs. Publish, coffee.) Disclaimer: Not advice—trade your trash. Charts via [Your Platform]. Sources: WaPo, Reuters, ProPublica, X chatter.
 

Brought to you by Grok AI

Take Care, AA

P.S. I know this blog reads a little rough, but it was a successful test run, I think 

Thanks for reading, AA   





Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)