Breakouts in Natural Gas, Crude Oil, & Wheat +2.25% - Trick or Treat

 

We have the FOMC coming up this week, and bullish press releases on a Trump China deal "framework" - make of it what you will - lifting market futures higher this morning.    

  

US and China agree on trade framework for rare earths, soybeans france24.com

   

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, shakes hands with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

According to the above article Bessent was also seen making the rounds on the Sunday shows: 

 

"Bessent told the CBS "Face the Nation" that the soybean purchases would be substantial. Bessent said on ABC's "This Week" that when President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping announce a trade deal next Thursday US soybean farmers "will feel very good about what's going on both for this season and the coming seasons for several years".  

And I have a bridge to sell you, in Chicago, if you're interested... 

 

The AIgos have obviously been programmed to buy the trade news, but are trade relations better, or worse, than they were a year ago? I'll let you ponder that...   

 

While markets continue to be run-up in the $SPX +7000 crash target; Crypto, Gold, Oil mostly lower, Natural Gas continue to wobble, but I did catch a lucky break in Wheat futures overnight.

 

Wheat Contract  - ZWZ5 DEC 25 - filled Sunday evening.     

 Wheat  - this Monday morning +2. 25% 

 

 

You can clearly see where the opening bid was jacked above the 50 day moving average, and this "trick or treat" pun intended) triggers program buying. 

 

We recently saw the same thing in Natural Gas, on the 60 minute chart, and even Crude Oil, just last week, proving this is how markets are routinely manipulated. We've seen this kind of manipulation in the past, but now that machines do close to 80% of the trading we see it on a regular basis, and  and I expect this type of blatant manipulation to continue for the foreseeable future. 

 

Trade whatever works:  

• Elliott Waves, and channel trading is out
• Sentiment, and Fibonacci targets are out 
• moving average manipulation is everything 

 

Natural Gas - 60 min chart - SMA averages trading like clockwork - now that cooler weather is setting in. 1. See where the bid was raise - last Monday was it? - and the back-test bought at the SMA 200.   

 

 

 

Regardless... whether you're bullish or bearish - carbon based fuels or stocks - manipulation doesn't last forever, and a day of reckoning is at hand.  

Check out my bearish outlook for the foreseeable future; in the Halloween spectacular I published over the weekend:  The Halloween Monster that Devoured Early October Gains, Threatens to Wreak More Havoc.

I continue to add a multitude of bearish Put options: Some in the money ITM, some out of the money OTM, some expire ahead of Thanksgiving, some don't expire until March. Kind of a mix and match, patchwork, of famously overbought stocks, and sectors that I've assembled over the past several weeks.

I thought the market makers may have used this run-up into the FOMC to take profits, since nobody would want to sell into a Fed meeting, but instead we're seeing a run-up into the Fed. 

 

Watch for a relief rally to be faded at some point, since we haven't seen as much as a pullback since early April.   

Take Care, 

 

AA 

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