Government Shutdown 2025, The Best Trade of The Week + A Contrarian Play

"Yesterday’s snoozefest (Tuesday, Sept 30): 

 

Stocks mixed, but $SPX notched a 4-day win streak, powered by NVIDIA $NVDA +2.6%. Media barely blinked!"

 

 

Funny—after weeks tracking NVIDIA, it breaks to new highs while I’m distracted, and the breakout is drowned out by leftist media’s bad news gloom. Ironic 😂

 

My 1 takeaway is that we must still be in a bull market; up on bad news.  

Healthcare & Biotech rallied, with US Manufacturing stonks (know your meme) The talking heads managed to glance over that good news, yet they continue to party like it's 1999 in Europe. 

US Pfizer deal lifts European health stocks as Trump policy haze eases 

 

 Onto the Best Pick of the Week

My best pick of the week didn't concern itself with the looming Government shutdown/ (political) showdown whatsoever, and again it gets absolutely no media attention. 

$FCX Freeport-McMoRan +10% gains in 2 days, and not only was this the best call of the week, but it was also one of the easiest calls... in recent memory. Bullish capitulation, followed by a reversal candle, at support, on a Friday, and once the weekly options paid, it was off to the races.  

The obvious first upside target is the 200 day ma, so I'm afraid there's not much meat left on the bone.     

     I didn't alert to the $FCX trade until it was confirmed, but Grok is my witness...

Declaring Victory Monday, after Freeport McMoRan $FCX rallies +5% off my pullback target. @Grok is my witness, and you (Grok) have my explicit permission to share this target, with anyone who's interested.... #Copper pic.twitter.com/NTC6smakab

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 29, 2025

 

 A Contrarian Play

No, not the Gold miners, and Bitcoin shorts, although both seem like excellent contrarian trades.  

Small Caps  

With the shutdown hitting midnight last night, small caps rallied as expected—time to go full contrarian!

Market shrugs off #GovermentShutdown2025
Watching Russell small caps poppin'. $VIX droppin', as the $SPX Market Futures test the 6700 level @ (6715)

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 1, 2025

 To add to my contrarian conviction; I'm not seeing any retail investors liking my call, and I like that.   

 In fact I already went long at yesterday's close, and I'm planning to add into any further weakness, if I get the chance. I'm long in the form of a mutual fund, but any small caps ETF should do. 

 The always wrong retail bears think the market should sell off on Government shutdown news. These are the geniuses predicting the end of the $USD, and hiding in gold, when they're not driving Alibaba higher. 🤣    

"Not the sharpest tools in the shed", see my blog dated Sept. 12th, 2025 

Precious metals Gold Platinum Silver’s Wild Ride: Hedge or Trap? 

 

Take care, 

AA 

 P.S. Don't fall in love with the rally in small caps, as valuations already stretched like a rubber monkey, caught in a bear trap!  

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