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Thursday, July 31, 2025

Copper, A Warning Of Things To Come?

This morning, we're seeing a lot of hoopla surrounding $META, and Microsoft $MSFT earnings - but now that the $VIX has been hammered back below the 15 level, we've traded into what I like to call "Groundhog Day" markets. Same thing every day, futures green, market ends little change, or slightly higher - which is reported as "ALL TIME HIGHS" - but at the end of the day not much to write home about. The market Bears must feel like they're stuck in financial Purgatory, or worse... but this is how it usually goes over the summer break. Pigs fly, and Bears get slaughtered.

The $SPX at yesterday's close was only trading about 100 handles above where it was trading on July 4th.  

CNBC's so-called Chart Master Carter Worth put out the warning not to own the $SPX because he's seeing a double top on the Dow Jones, and small caps aren't leading. I actually tried to help him see the light, but I'm afraid there's no hope for him.  

This is the same buffoon who told investors to stay on the sideline at $VIX 60 lol 

It's no wonder CNBC is unmercifully mocked as FAKE NEWS 

  

Sector Rotation   

There are only a few select sectors which have led the entire April rally, and those are Materials (including miners), speculative Tech, and believe it or not, cryptocurrency.   

Copper  Crashes -20%  - You'll find that the mass distraction, lame stream media, is very careful not to use the word crash, to describe what's happening in copper, yet if we saw a similar move in crypto, you can bet they would be reporting it as a crash.     


Copper is hyped on social media, and on Bloomberg, and elsewhere, and copper crashes 2 week later.

 

Copper tumbles 18% on Trump tariff surprise sending Sandfire, BHP, and RIO shares lower

 Miners 

Anglo American posts $1.9 billion loss, cuts dividend, as restructuring continues

 We're no doubt seeing some margin calls in copper, so it's probably a little oversold in the short term. Watch for a rebound back above the 4.60 level, and if you need me to tell you that, then you shouldn't be trading copper.  

What other sectors which have done all the heavy lifting, are still being hyped? 

Big Tech  

Big Tech for one, although AI stock, and Semiconductors have seen bigger gains... 

Perhaps Mag7 catches up this morning, but that remains to be seen.   

$MSFT trades into bubble territory; leaving another massive gap behind.  

 Crypto 

Cryptocurrency continues to hold up, I found Peter Schiff's observation on the sector profound 

 I've noted the same thing and even went a step further... 

 

CNBC article being pumped by NBC in Chicago  


At 10 years old, Ethereum's future is brighter than ever despite recent setbacks

I couldn't resist trolling CNBC Fast Money last night, after they had Ethereum's inventor on... 

 

 

 

This blog has already run too long. 

I'm going to offer you the same advice I tried to offer Carter worth, DIG DEEP. Compare sectors. 

 

 Take Care, AA 

   

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Thursday, July 24, 2025

$SPX hits 6400 - Best Trades of the Week + More Charts

 The dash for trash continues in a meme trading environment, but most these short squeezes seem to be short lived. 

 CNBC's Carter Worth gave up on Ethereum only 2 days after pumping the trade last week. Shameful! 

See last weeks blog on that subject:   

The Crypto Trade, Bitcoin $IBIT, $XRP, The Stablecoin Act, and the $USD

 This week it was: Kohl's, GoPro, Krispy Kreme,  

 And look at who's behind it! 

 



Jim Cramer says Kohl's short sellers should ‘cover and move on' 

I'll trust the charts to guide me, rather than the master's of manipulation at CNBC

 $KSS - This view of Kohl's from my junk folder. Some of you may recognize this classic chart pattern as, "the rooftop of death".   

 


I suggest the short sellers double down, and I'm sure many did... that was a golden opportunity! 

Yesterday, we saw GoPro lose 40% of its value (from the highs) over the course of the day.   

$DHI DR Horton - up 12% for the week. 

 


I didn't bother updating the (above) chart, but I think you get the picture.

Here's another chart that's working  

$TXN Texas Instruments  - Pumped (to a new recent all time high) and dumped, and I suspect you're about to see a lot more of this in the near future.  

 


Today's Trade  

The trade that's getting the most attention this morning is Google, which the lame stream media (of course) pumped ahead of earnings, because the numbers were clearly leaked... 

My heads up on the situation: 

CNBC falsely claiming Google was on some sort of winning streak 

 The Gap Target is obvious, but it seems to already be overbought - trading near the top of the channel 

 

Look, if the best the market makers can do is memetrades, and short squeezes, in order to help lift the lousy $SPX another 75 points (1%) (over the course of a week), I got no use for that.  

I suppose their psychological target on the $SPX is 6500, and that can easily be achieved, at the rate we're going, but don't become too complacent here, because the $VIX was just hammered to a new 3 month low.

 

Take care, AA  

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Tuesday, July 22, 2025

S&P 500 Closes At New All Time Highs. $SPX Closes Above 6300. HotStock Picks!

 "S&P 500 Closes At New All Time Highs", "$SPX Closes Above 6300" - the folks at CNBC are either trying to make the market sound more exciting, or they're trying to help the hedge funds offload their shares to the poor retail investor. I'll let you decide... 

Fun Facts concerning the Lame Stream Media of Mass Distraction: 

These 6 Corporations Control 90% Of The Media In America businessinsider.com

  

Business Insider Infographic 


More Fun Facts 

The 11 Richest CNBC Anchors moneyinc.com 

Hey, something doesn't add up here!: 

#11 Brian Sullivan 

  • Birthdate: July 19, 1971
  • Age: 52
  • Years on CNBC: He has been on CNBC since 2011
  • Current Position: Anchor and Senior National Correspondent
  • Notable Achievements: Brian Sullivan has been working in financial news... 

  • Salary: $100,000
  • Net Worth: $2 million

    •  No wonder he always looks so happy! 

    Hey, did you hear the news that only 7% of stocks are trading at new 52 week highs? 

    No, these are not the media companies that control us - leading the market higher - but the big tech companies who seem to have taken their place. Just compare Viacom, and Disney's stock to that of Google, and Facebook...  but I digress.     

    More recent headlines:   

    Banking giant updates S&P 500 end-year target

     In a Monday investor note, the banking giant projected the benchmark index would end the year at 5,600. This target suggests an 11% decline from the current value of 6,335. 

    Did you catch that!? They raised their year end target to 5600! 😕 

     Here's another good one: 

    Goldman Sachs Raising Price Targets on 4 Stocks That Could Explode Higher 247wallst.com 

     Of course Goldman Sachs doesn't work for free, any more than Jim Cramer does, so you should already know this is exactly what I talked about in yesterday's update. The smart money unloading their shares to the retail investor. 

    I decided to chart a few of these names, and what I found is noteworthy. 

    1. Amphenol $APH - (tech) 2 consecutive Doji reversal candles spotted at the upper part of the range. 

     


    2. Jabil $JBL trades back above the top of the top of the range. This one could consolidate above the 210 level, for some time, before it comes crashing down.  

     


     3. BorgWarner $BWA - this one topped out in 2014, and now we see it trading into a bearish H&S pattern. If it breaks out here, it could squeeze the short sellers, but I wouldn't hold my breath... 

     Call me a "cynic", but I don't believe any of it. 

    Be sure to catch the previous update, where I include several charts and make a stunning prediction! 

    Take Care, AA  

     

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    Saturday, July 19, 2025

    The Crypto Trade, Bitcoin $IBIT, $XRP, The Stablecoin Act, and the $USD

     Quick Recap 

    In my last blog I predicted a reversal in the $USD and we got a reversal in the $USD. 

     That is, until it bumped up against the 50 day moving average, last week.   

    $USD  - is sold at the 50 day moving average. Also see the general shape of the pattern on this chart, a broadening triangle, or reverse symmetrical triangle, as Elliotticians call it. I'm seeing this pattern on lots of charts, and points to plenty more volatility in the near future.  


     The Broadening Top Pattern on $XRP for instance 

     $XRP whipsaws back to a new high 


    Speaking of Elliott Wave theory it seems like, more, and more nowadays, the EW system is becoming less useful, and that's because of machine buying, and slight of hand (manipulation), rather than human emotion moving markets - I've touched on this many times, in previous blogs - BUT I think it does work in highly emotional markets like crypto.

    Many investors seem to think that because markets have whipsawed back to new highs, that must be bullish when that is more indicative of a highly emotional market. 

    The Crypto Trade     

    Most recently the smart money ran crypto up, right into July Options Expiration, which just happened to fall on the day of the passage of the Stable Coin Act. How smart is that?!     

    This is a good example of why you should always be watching the calendar for buying opportunities. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's seeing July Options Expiration as a capitulation point, and the retail investor is already being encouraged to "buy the dips". 

     I personally prefer to buy the dips, and sell the rips, especially in a highly volatile market like Crypto.

    Warning this trade is not for the faint of heart, and attempting to trade the leveraged crypto ETFs can be even more deadly, where a 20% daily move is NOT at all uncommon.    

    Broader Market  

    It seems like we're back to trading a market that can't even pull back, and that's an unhealthy market.

     I watched some clown come on CNBC, after Friday's closing bell, trying to convince the retail investor that "momentum" can carry the market higher, but the truth of the matter is that momentum has slowed drastically, and we have a Fed meeting coming up.

    If you follow my X platfom feed then you should already know I'm extremely bearish Crypto, and especially when you see it being pumped on CNBC fast money, after more than a 100% run (in Ethereum, and several other memecoin). 

     Pinned Tweet Friday 

    A couple details I failed to mention in that tweet is that CNBC's so called "chart master" didn't even have a crypto chart to show... and this is their standard MO. They pump whatever is running hot, for ratings.

    He also said "Everyone should own "Bitcoin & Ethereum" lol   

    The only reason they're talking about Ethereum at this point is because it was the only thing rallying last week. Believe me, I watch the tickers every day, and this continues to be an otherwise dull market.  

    Charts talk bullshit walks, so let's get to the charts.  

    Bitcoin $BTC  

    Bearish Leading Diagonal Triangle Pattern spotted on Bitcoin Saturday Morning 5 min. Chart View 


    Longer term, I'm seeing what looks like a spinning top candle on the weekly chart, so maybe we don't see a major reversal until next week. This gives the smart money plenty of time to off load their bitcoin to the retail investor, as we trade into the next FOMC meeting. 


     I suggest you pay for TradingView charts if you want to trade Crypto. You can always use the free version, at LiveCharts.co.uk charts, but you can't save... and that puts you at a huge disadvantage.

    Another option is to chart the Bitcoin ETF $IBIT

    $IBIT  

     This is the bullish EW forecast I came up with on Friday, and tweeted out on the interwebs 

    If that EW count is correct we should see a sharp correction in a powerful correction in wave "C" 

    I suppose we could see a relief rally, on the FOMC statement, and that may continue into next Friday.  

     Not all the news on Crypto is bullish despite all the hype you're seen being pushed by the networks, and on social media.   

    JPMorgan sees Stablecoin Market Hitting $500B by 2028, far Below Bullish Forecasts CoinDesk

    Take Care, AA 


           



     

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    Tuesday, July 1, 2025

    New All Time Market Highs $SPX. Short Squeeze Emerging Markets, and the $USD Trade

     New All Time Market Highs. These headlines are designed to spurt animal instincts, but I suppose, it's also supposed to scare the EW counters, because new highs rule out wave 2 in a bear market. 

     Look, new highs mean nothing to me, as I stated in a recent blog. 

     "The market has only traded back to the same Trump/ Biden era bubble levels, we saw 6 months ago, and the market remains in dire need of a real correction." 

     All you have to do is go back and look at where chasing the new all time highs in 2021 got you, or even the provide highs, which were no doubt orchestrated. 

     New York Stock Exchange - seen retesting the new all time highs again 


    We've already seen several new all time highs, on several indices including the $QQQ, yet it seems like the talking heads weren't satisfied until we closed out the first half of the year, with a new high on the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ.   

     What's funny is after yesterday's close Bloomberg drew more attention to the historic sell-off in the $USD, and the rally in EM (Emerging Markets).... almost as if they are rooting against the $USA, and I have no doubt that they would like for nothing more than for the USA to go bankrupt under Trump. 

    I feel like these are some of the dumbest people on the planet, encouraging investors to abandon the US, for foreign markets, and I'm prepared to bet against their false narrative. 

     Short squeeze $USD - The $USD short is a crowded trade. The bear's stop hunt on the $USD is the 100 level. I don't believe we'll see that stop hunt triggered, for at least a couple more months, but in the meantime I think we could see a breakout above the 97 level.  

     


     I have no idea what the catalyst for a breakout above the 100 level is going to be, but it's probably going to look like another SHTF moment. Could be a trade war with Japan, since the last carry trade unwind drove the $VIX to the 60 level. 

    Take Care and have a great 4th of July holiday, 

    AA   


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