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Thursday, September 4, 2025

Mania/ Capitulation, Momentum, Gold. + Comparing the US $SPX Performance to Foreign Markets

 Be sure to checkout all the recent updates links to all recent articles can be found in the sidebar menu:

Yesterday, I covered the reversal in Crude Oil, the Breakout in Google (Alphabet), and I even pinned down the trend on the only sector that seems to matter to Wall Street, Big Tech. 

You can usually find the latest blog update pinned to the top of my twitter feed @3Xtraders. I'll often add informational tweets to the pinned tweet, as I did yesterday. 

 I also hinted to the $VIX being sold at the 200 day moving average, something that is so obvious...   

I'm 100% sure that, that is a better view of the broader market than you will ever find on CNBC pro. 

 Gold mania continues  

Metals mania, and the media saturation that goes along with it seems to have reached its peak, and if I'm correct the algos know what to do next, take profits. 

 I suspect that isn't the top, because it's not a strong enough reversal, but I think we could be close to a pullback.  

 And that brings me to my next point Momentum  

 We're NOT only seeing momentum in Metals markets but also foreign markets, several of which I called out by name yesterday including Canada.  

The money flow into some of these foreign markets has been nothing short of astounding, far surpassing what we've seen in Gold, and Silver. 

By the looks of it; Donald Trump has only managed to make foreign markets great again, because they are out-performing US markets by leaps and bounds! Don't believe me? Pull up a Global Dow chart - trading up +17.5% for the year!  

$GDOW  - Bought around 4800 in January - currently trades at $5695. 

If the $SPX was on the same track it would be trading around $6785.  

 Here's an even more sobering view of the Toronto market!:

 $TSX - trades back into the (repaired) channel. Up nearly 20% since April! 

Note: the lack of any price labels since April. I don't believe this is due to a glitch in the Stockscharts software, but to the fact that there has not been any significant pullback...


I've never really given much thought to price labels, but I've also never seen a market like this. 

From StockCharts FAQ:  

Price Labels are balloons that display price or index values above and below significant peaks and troughs. The main purpose of Price Labels is to visualize significant highs and lows of price action. When you enable Price Labels on your chart (check the Price Labels box under Chart Attributes to enable), you can quickly see the highest and lowest values displayed. You don't have to look up these values in a separate table or use the Inspect (crosshair) tool.

Price Labels may look like they gave good signals in the past, but they’re not designed to be trading signals. To generate price labels, we look into the future when deciding where to display them. You’ll never see a price label appear at the far right edge of the chart. This is why Price Labels can't be used for trading signals.

In my personal opinion AI trading algos have taken the place of rational thought, and valuation is out the window, so you would have to think like AI, in order to anticipate a top.    

Australia 

The Australian market has been on a similar tear, until just recently.   

 $AORD - Rug is pulled at my stophunt (line) highlighted in Red. It was bought at the 50 day moving average. If this were a crash, the 50 day would have been taken out, in a much larger gap lower, and that's exactly what I'm expecting to see, before Trump's second term comes to an end.  

Take Care, 

AA  

 

 

  

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Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Market Update Wed. Hump day. Google Alphabet & Crude Oil Breaks Out

 Yesterday, we saw a continuation of the bear raid we saw in US equities on Friday. This was on the heels of some weakness in Germany, with the $DAX ending down -2.29%. Of course you don't hear that being reported in the US, and Bloomberg was seen trying to convince Traders that yesterday's selloff had something to do with Trump tariffs, or overvalued Mag7 stocks, when they weren't busy covering the festivities going on in China. 


I was kind of surprised to see the rug pulled on big tech, but this is what the fast money on Wall Street does. No sooner than they return from vacation they try to shake out the retail investor... so I'm chalking it up to your typical Monday/ Tuesday morning surprise. A Bear Raid; more than a Bear Trap, although I'm sure some bears are finding themselves trapped this morning. 

 $TECS Watch for the 3X Tech bear $TECS to be hammered back down into the bearish channel...

Bear raid; same MO: hide in precious metals or whatever else they can manipulate, drive the $VIX higher, and sell Apple, NVIDIA, or any other names they can't wait to put money to work in.

But that plan seems to have been squashed, as we saw stocks recover late in the day, ahead of what appears to be a strategically timed bullish press release coming from Google. 

I'm filing this under the, "rigged news reports that are used to move markets", folder, and here's BAC working with CNBC again? If memory serves, we saw something similar just last week. More on that in a minute, once I track it down, but first today's headline:

 CNBC wants you to pay to read this article, which I find hilarious: 

 




 The last time we saw Google pull something like this was when they rehashed their Willow Chip news back in December, in order to cause the bears to capitulate. If you recall, that marked the previous all time high in mag7 stocks.  

 Here's the previous BofA pump which looks like it was designed to help CNBC. 

 

Can you say, "racketeering"? 

Going to the charts: 

$GOOG Alphabet (DCS chart) To document the previous high...  and this morning we see it trading around the $225 level (a new all time high) the last I checked.  

Furthermore, I see no need to raise a price target after the fact, but this is what bankers and analysts do in order to try to remain relevant.    

$NDX - not only did they sell the right shoulder on a H&S pattern on Friday, but they broke the trend, and shook out some retail investors below the 50 day moving average. In other words they took out some stops.   

 Crude Oil 

Oil rallied to a new recent high yesterday. I was looking at the chart yesterday afternoon, and it just looked misplaced to me. This morning I noticed that the $USO had been driven above the 50 day, in order to trigger program buying, and I suppose investors who saw Tech selling off, piled into crude oil, as usual,  but this morning we're seeing the backlash...


 As long as these sector rotations continue, then we aren't going to see any meaningful pullback. 

That also goes for Crypto and precious metals, and even utilities.  

As long as investors continue to hide in defensive sectors, that's money that's not going to be put to work in conventional stocks. 

 Take Care, AA 

 



 

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Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Silver becomes the latest meme trade... $VIX does something extraordinary!

 You may also want to check out the weekend update linked  

To review last week's action: 

 It appears that traders wanted to raise some cash in order to pump the China India summit, so they sold the S&P at the 4500 (round number) target. It was an easy call.  

$SOX - Recap of Friday's reversal 

 

We also got Gold, and Silver miners right, and that helped lift (2X) Gold miners $NUGT, which closed up +21% for the week! 

 Silver becomes the latest meme trade

Labor Day (Monday) I noticed Silver pushing above $40, and I suspect the reversal is going to look exactly like the one we just saw in copper.   

Checkout the Silver Manipulator I spotted on YouTube less than a minute into the video he falsely claims that a +1% move in Silver is somehow extraordinary?   

A 1% move in Silver is nothing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% move in Silver, after some of the meme trading we've witnessed over the past few years.  

The Broader Market  

This morning (Tuesday) we're seeing US futures slammed, and Germany leading the way lower. 

I spotted this lower target on the $SPX on Friday  

 

We're also seeing rumors that President Trump is in poor health, and some sort of announcement supposedly scheduled for 2PM. This is the chatter I'm seeing on the X platform.   


 $VIX does something extraordinary! 

The $VIX continues to trade below 20 which you would expect during a holiday week, but look where it was hammered (manipulated) this morning.  


 Crypto gets a bounce 

Lately we've seen Crypto getting hammered with Tech stocks, and it will be interesting to see if Crypto and tech stocks continue to move in tandem, or will they diverge? I really don't know, but considering what I'm hearing from the contrarians at CNBC, I wouldn't be surprised to see a divergence. This morning - for instance - were seeing Crypto get a lift, as NASDAQ futures are pointed to a lower (-1%) open. 


Getting back to last week's China Rally up another 2% on Labor Day (Monday)

The China Hang Seng has been bouncing off the 50 day moving average for months, and last week's rally  - to another lower recent high - was no different.
 
Meanwhile look at what's been going on in China   

US Banks Moved $312B in Chinese Drug Money, But Crypto Gets the Blame multiple sources 

 but wait there's more! 

Goldman, Citi lead US banks ploughing billions into China thebusinesstimes.com 

NPR Chicago 

China's Xi hosts Putin and Modi at Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit

 "Chinese President Xi Jinping is hosting a high-profile summit with leaders from Russia, North Korea and India gathering among others in a challenge to U.S. influence."

Alibaba gains $50 billion value after AI progress fuels rally

By Winnie Hsu
By Luz Ding
By Bloomberg 

Also this from China lovin' Bloomberg 


Alibaba Share Surge Adds $50 Billion After AI Revenue Boost

With a government shutdown looming, and that story taking center stage, I would expect to see some choppiness, between now and Thanksgiving, but I'd be looking to sell China, Silver, Crypto, anything, other than the hopelessly rigged US equities market.  

Watch for a sudden reversal in Silver, similar to the one we saw in copper, with the closest near term support being the $34 level, right around where the 200 day moving average is currently trading.  

 


Take Care, AA   

   



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