Tuesday, October 12, 2010

When Cramer says "don't worry" you better start worrying

I don't usually watch Cramer, but I happened to catch him this evening declaring victory after today's big 10 point rally lol

He was telling his fans not to worry, and that the people who are worried - like myself - I suppose - (because I attempt to keep my members out of harms way)- have missed the boat, and caused others to do the same, and about to lose their clients. The truth is I'm happy to miss a 120 point rally on the Dow, when the risks far out way the reward. It's not the 10 point Dow rally I'm worried about it's the continuation of the flash crash (wave 3).

I believe there is good reason to be worried, when the pied piper of stock land tells you not to worry. The fact that someone would say such a thing should alert you to the fact that he is worried. After-all people who aren't worried don't usually feel like they have to go around announcing it to everyone.

If my record was less than 50% accurate as "By most measures (in 2009), Jim Cramer did worse than the market" (Source Barrons) I'd be worried too. Cramer had a good record during his hedge fund days, but I believe a stock picking monkey would have done at least as well during the 1990's bull. I would give my left nut if I could go back in time and trade in the 90's - knowing what I do now - but I have to trade the market we have.

As long as Obama's darling General Electric continues to pay Cramer's salary, while giving him a public voice via CNBC cable television, the poor retail investor will continue to be led down primrose path, and whether they win or lose Cramer is sure to keep his cushy job.

I on the other hand would expect to lose at least 50% of my membership if I'm wrong even 40% of the time. I feel I'm already on thin ice, after calling the top again today, but the evidence is indisputable, take it or leave it.

I suppose, because Cramer used to make his living crushing the same investors he now claims to help, he feels like he has a bone to pick with the shorts, but I think most shorts don't behave unscrupulously. After all the crash of 08 (wave 1) was mainly the result of longs liquidating their positions, in the form of fund redemption's, and the shorts who sold certain banks to 0 (zero) only did so, because they are in fact bankrupt.

I get the feeling many hedge funds are afraid to short this market, because they saw what happened in 09; rules can be changed to prevent shorting regardless of valuation, and to be honest it's a crowded trade, because of the recent emergence of the retail short. Short selling used to only take place on margin, but since the emergence of the short ETF, everyone thinks they have the wherewithal, and the determination to be a short seller. The bears have always been traditionally out-numbered 10-1, so this has never been an easy business, and just as it is in Las Vegas, when you're shooting from the don't pass, all the players who are betting on the pass line, are out to get the don't-better.

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