The Top in Gold

Anyone who has followed this blog over the past year, knows my accuracy concerning Gold and the $USD has been spot on (pun intended).

I hate to be an "I told you so", but I have continually warned the gold bugs, "gold will not save you".

Once the entire herd - from Jim Cramer to Glen Beck - runs in one direction the outcome is predictable, and this bubble is set to implode just as the housing bubble did.

I predicted the top in gold just a couple weeks ago,

and now it can be confirmed on the 10 minute GLD chart.

GLD - 30 min Candlesticks:

via StockCharts.com

I've already covered my gold short, but I'll be putting if back on after one of many inevitable dead cat bounces.

As the anti-cramer, I recommend every trader put on a short position in gold, and leave it on indefinitely.

Everything is playing out just as I predicted over a year ago, including the end of the era of baby-boomer investment, assuring the stock market will not bounce back, the next time it crashes... and as deflation continues over coming decades, it comes down to simple supply and demand.... There's a long overdue worldwide depression underway, one in which there will be little demand for luxury metals like gold & Silver.

What is in short supply is $USD paying jobs, and low interest loans... and until the sheople wake up, and throw the deadbeats (those who keep spending money we don't have), and the Lobbyists (the banks and corporations including GE) who have enslaved us, out of Washington, things are only going to get worse for most of us.

As things get worse; the demand will turn to basic necessities like food, and shelter; farm land, garden seeds, fishing tackle, and dry Ammo will be worth far more than gold.

To trade future targets in gold and gold miners join 3Xtraders.com today

GLD - Weekly Candlesticks:

via StockCharts.com

AA#

Sector rotations, sideways action, and the $USD

The currency markets have the market freaked out, and the $USD nearly broke out yesterday, but as long as the $USD doesn't spiking above the upper $76 level again, there's no reason for panic. My $USD charts are for members only, so let's take a look at this sector rotation.

I'm sure I'm not the only technician who's been pulling his hair out, over the past few weeks, but once you realize everything is consolidating sideways in triangles, everything else falls into place.

When Cramer says "don't worry" you better start worrying

I don't usually watch Cramer, but I happened to catch him this evening declaring victory after today's big 10 point rally lol

He was telling his fans not to worry, and that the people who are worried - like myself - I suppose - (because I attempt to keep my members out of harms way)- have missed the boat, and caused others to do the same, and about to lose their clients. The truth is I'm happy to miss a 120 point rally on the Dow, when the risks far out way the reward. It's not the 10 point Dow rally I'm worried about it's the continuation of the flash crash (wave 3).

I believe there is good reason to be worried, when the pied piper of stock land tells you not to worry. The fact that someone would say such a thing should alert you to the fact that he is worried. After-all people who aren't worried don't usually feel like they have to go around announcing it to everyone.

If my record was less than 50% accurate as "By most measures (in 2009), Jim Cramer did worse than the market" (Source Barrons) I'd be worried too. Cramer had a good record during his hedge fund days, but I believe a stock picking monkey would have done at least as well during the 1990's bull. I would give my left nut if I could go back in time and trade in the 90's - knowing what I do now - but I have to trade the market we have.

As long as Obama's darling General Electric continues to pay Cramer's salary, while giving him a public voice via CNBC cable television, the poor retail investor will continue to be led down primrose path, and whether they win or lose Cramer is sure to keep his cushy job.

I on the other hand would expect to lose at least 50% of my membership if I'm wrong even 40% of the time. I feel I'm already on thin ice, after calling the top again today, but the evidence is indisputable, take it or leave it.

I suppose, because Cramer used to make his living crushing the same investors he now claims to help, he feels like he has a bone to pick with the shorts, but I think most shorts don't behave unscrupulously. After all the crash of 08 (wave 1) was mainly the result of longs liquidating their positions, in the form of fund redemption's, and the shorts who sold certain banks to 0 (zero) only did so, because they are in fact bankrupt.

I get the feeling many hedge funds are afraid to short this market, because they saw what happened in 09; rules can be changed to prevent shorting regardless of valuation, and to be honest it's a crowded trade, because of the recent emergence of the retail short. Short selling used to only take place on margin, but since the emergence of the short ETF, everyone thinks they have the wherewithal, and the determination to be a short seller. The bears have always been traditionally out-numbered 10-1, so this has never been an easy business, and just as it is in Las Vegas, when you're shooting from the don't pass, all the players who are betting on the pass line, are out to get the don't-better.

We made the Hall of Fame!

I didn't want to announce it until I had confirmation, but I just got
the email from stockcharts.com. I'm psyched!

We should have confirmation of wave 3 tomorrow. The bulls are in love
with the upside, but the smart money has already sold and gone short,
while the MM's were forced to put money to work over the past couple
days.

The market does what it will on its own time line

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