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Monday, January 6, 2025

Dead Internet Dead Money/ Market

 Dead Internet Dead Money/ Market 

 You've probably heard the term dead money, which means a trade has fallen out of favor, or is no longer working. A good example would be energy stocks, or Oil which has continued to trade in the same range for several years, regardless of what Bloomberg Asia falsely reported last night    

You could also point to pot stocks as dead money, because they haven't performed well since their IPO several years ago, but I usually think of dead money as a stock, or sector that worked at some point, but no longer does... 

Dead Internet Theory

According to Wikapedia

The dead Internet theory is an online conspiracy theory that asserts, due to a coordinated and intentional effort, the Internet now consists mainly of bot activity and automatically generated content manipulated by algorithmic curation to control the population and minimize organic human activity. Wikipedia

 Of course now-a-days when we hear the term conspiracy theory being thrown around, that usually means that the powers that (shouldn't) be, are engaged in a coverup.   

 

Meta wants AI characters (AKA Bots) to fill up Facebook and Instagram 'kind of in the same way (real) accounts do 

pcgamer.com and several other sources

Of course by the time you see something like this being openly reported, we know damn well that it has in fact been going on for a very long time.

I could give many examples, but the one that immediately comes to mind is the "Chemtrails conspiracy". 

The term Chemtrails sounds conspiratorial, and that was by design.  

 That's right the technology as well as the chemical compounds being used are documented in US patents, and the Chinese are openly perfecting their weather modification programs. 

China is massively expanding its weather-modification program, saying it will be able to cover half the country in artificial rain and snow by 2025 businessinsider.com

 SHANGHAI, CHINA - AUGUST 04: Tourists enjoy the wind brought by typhoon Hagupit at the Bund on August 4, 2020 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Yang Jianzheng/VCG via Getty Images)

 

 Getting back on topic 

Dead Internet Dead Money/ Market

If you've been following this blog for any length of time, then you know I've been complaining about the lack of interest in trading I find on Twitter, as well as the overwhelming amount of hype created by fictional/ bot (profiles) accounts, and today it's worse than ever. 

Just this morning I pointed to manipulation in Chinese markets, and a bot asks me this question: 


This after I find the most odd Crypto topic trending #1 this morning: 

 

That #1 trending topic is obviously being driven by bot activity 

It's become so bad that I recently did a search for the top online trading community, but most of the answers you find are propagated by bots, or writers trying to get you to click on a link, and make a purchase.

But Wait There's More! 





You could simply avoid social media, or NOT interact with anyone, and I avoid the most popular social media platform of all - FaceBook - like the plague,  but on Twitter/ X I prefer a more direct approach:

Of course this hurts my social media score, and makes me way less popular than your typical bot

What Is Social Media Scoring? (Plus How To Increase It) indeed.com

As far as Trading:

Trading has been excellent so far this year, thanks to a Santa Rally in Crypto, and several other sectors. You just need to know where to look... as I pointed out in my 2024 wrap-up, and 2 subsequent blogs.  

 

Good luck in 2025!

AA 






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Friday, January 3, 2025

Santa Rally Comes Late

I pretty much just use this blog as a means to highlight what I'm calling out on Twitter/ X, so you'll be better off checking my timeline over there, if you're looking for a trade. I also have several hedge funds who are following me, and they like to take the opposite side of every trade I call, so also keep that in mind, when following me. 

First off - from Investopedia:

Santa Claus Rally: What It Is and Means for Investors 

The Santa Claus rally specifically occurs during a seven-day period spanning the last five trading days of December and first two trading days of January, with historical data showing positive returns about four-fifths of the time

 So, if you go by the historic dates for a Santa Rally, we're running a little late, and I think the reason for this is that Money doesn't get put to work until the first Monday of the month. It would be an interesting study to figure out how that factors into the Santa Rally equation.

This year we saw stocks top out ahead of the New Year, and profit taking ensued, and that continued into yesterday, with a heap of bad news (real or imagined).   

Yesterday felt like a Monday, and traded much like a Monday, since traders are still returning from vacation. 

We saw the rug pulled on the market immediately after the open. 

 

This is what the smart money does. They shake out the retail investor. That's you.

I don't usually announce when I'm taking profits, because I'm not always right, and I don't want to negatively impact your trading style. 

Yesterday was the exemption, when I saw the $VIX spiking in the middle of the day, again. 

  This type of shakeout is typically what you see, just ahead of real money being put to work at the beginning of the year.

Not to brag, but I read markets in real time, like a boss, and unless you were following my timeline, you're going to miss 90% of my tweets anyhow.  

My take on the Market, going into yesterday's close: 

 I explain why markets can no longer correct in my 2024 wrap-up. 

Futures Higher This Morning

One of my secrets to being right all the time, is because I'm usually up early reading markets, and weeding out the real news, from the fake news, and as slow as the hedge funds are to complete a cycle nowadays, I can read these markets like a book. It's hardly even a challenge anymore. Maybe at some point we'll get some real news that can move markets, but that remains to be seen. 

Here's an for example: 

The retail investor sees WWIII trending and Israel at war, and Ukraine/ NATO/ Joe Biden & co fighting a proxy war with Russia, and of course this looks bearish, right? Wrong. 

These are energy wars

1. Israel - for example - is trading at all time highs. Chart the $TA125 for yourself... 

2. We just completed our first LNG shipment to Ukraine. Google it

Getting back to yesterday's trade: 

We did see a little follow through on Pot Stocks up another 7%, but they continue to struggle around that $4 level - on the $MSOS. Perhaps it's going to take an earnings report to propel the sector higher? 

Crypto had a nice run, as expected. 

Gold miners were higher - a trade I forgot to mention in the last update. 

 As I stated above and predicted ahead of the new year, I'm expecting to see another sector rotation, out of energy, and back into tech. 

GL, AA


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Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Happy New Year 2024 Market Wrapup

 Happy New Year 2024 Wrap-up

First off, I'm happy to have been absolutely right all year; including being right about Trump's historic comeback/ win in Nov. Of course the always wrong legacy media was wrong as usual, and you don't see them celebrating... 

I was also right on markets being driven to new all time highs, in order to save Joe Biden's legacy, and to make Trump look like a fool, when the everything rally/ liquidity bubble implodes.

Since the Trump win we've seen some giveback in several sectors, but much of the selling has to do with the fact that several sectors were pumped to new all time highs, including the Dow - to 45,000 - before EOY profit taking.Of course you would've hardly even noticed this (profit taking), if all you watch is the $SPX, which continues to be carefully balanced using certain overweight stocks/ holdings. 

For comparison sake, take a look at the sell-off on the $NYSE over just the past 2 weeks.  

New York Stock Exchange  - Note: I haven't updated the chart since November.

A Year of Massive Sector Rotations

We've also seen a lot of money come out of Energy stocks - since November - which has been the market makers MO for the past couple years. They are forced to raise money by selling one sector, in order to drive another sector higher.

At one point back in October the market pumping legacy media was trying to convince investors that this was a "broad market rally", but that narrative quickly dried up once Small Caps, and Airlines rolled over.  

CNBC hosts like to call this a bifurcated market. It's what I call a whac-a-mole markets. The market has been carefully subdivided, so that it can be systematically rigged, a few sectors at a time. 

 The latest pump job was a short squeeze to the 200 day moving average and a 2 year high in Natural Gas. 

 Comparing that 16% move to the latest short squeeze in Chinese stocks:

 

It used to be enough to pump a couple sectors at a time, but today we see entire countries - such as China - routinely pumped and dumped, along with Crypto markets, and even Gold. 

Of course the financial fake news likes to celebrate each rally as a "historic milestone", yet they fail to mention the  markets which must be sacrificed in order to drive the next market rotation. In other words, the hosts of CNBC have no problem falsely declaring that small caps are leading a broad market rally, and leave the poor retail investor holding the bag.   

Here's a real time example of this using the $SPX 600 Small Caps weekly chart: 


Of course this is not all bad

 There is money to be made, swing-trading sectors, IF (and that's a big if) you can avoid all the minefields, and get ahead of the next trade. Of course this requires a lot of charting, and lately I was forced to add a crypto folder to my arsenal. Like it or not, AI and Crypto markets are helping to drive the tech heavy NASDAQ, and if you're still stuck trading the $SPX you're wasting your time. 

Rigged Markets Continue 

The $SPX is so hopelessly rigged, Chairman Powell had to come in and pull the rug on 2 futures interest rate cuts, in order to get a pullback, and this wasn't the first time the Fed has been blamed for a 1 day market correction. Remember the Carry Trade unwind, which amounted to a VIX 65 capitulation point! 

Proof that the market is rigged is the fact that the only fear during a $VIX 65 moment is the fear of missing out.

But the ultimate proof that the market is hopelessly rigged, is the fact that we no longer see bearish capitulation, because market volatility can be simply sold, using 0 day to Expiration Options.

    


Of course part of this rushing in and panic buying every dip, is just part of the plan, which I started off talking about. The plan to drive markets to new all time highs, just in order to crash it.  

I'm afraid I don't have any good news for 2025

I see momentum holding the market up for the time being, and some snap-back rallies may already be in order, but I'm thinking that maybe by early summer global markets will be in free-fall.  

 

 Take Care, AA

 

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Sunday, October 13, 2024

China Looks Exactly Like the 2007 - 2008 Crash - aka The Great Recession + Earnings Season, and an Important Mystery Chart Discovery Tesla $TSLA

First the China trade, and how the recent short squeeze looks exactly like 2007 - just before the financial collapse got under way - and that presents some great opportunities for anyone who is able to trade it, going forward. 
 
China rallied into a short squeeze on stimulus hopes, only to crash 10%, and this is exactly what we saw at the beginning of the financial crises in the US in 2007.

 
I'm up 30% in Oct, after catching that massive reversal, but after a couple big moves like this, you typically see a lot of sideways consolidation.  

The truth is 90% of traders are gamblers, who are looking to chase the next rally, wherever it may be, but they lack any charting skills. You see them ask me for advice all the time, and I simply block most of them, because if you have to ask me if you should short oil (for instance), then you are only asking for trouble. 

If you're inexperienced then you should start by trading something less volatile... although in today's market volatility can turn on a dime, as we recently saw in China. 
 
Earnings Season Kicks Off 

Earnings season kicked off on Friday, with Financials, and in all the excitement that part of the equation didn't present itself front and center, in my mind. 

If I had been charting Financials, I might have seen the breakout coming earlier, but better late than never. 
 
25 min. before Friday's opening bell: 
 

Financials broke out, or should I say, "the retail bears got caught in a bear trap again?" This is what holiday trading is all about; trapping the short sellers. 

In hindsight my market outlook was spot on when I pinned this tweet to my X timeline: 
 

There was also a bear trap set on the leveraged financial bear ETFs. 

Speaking of bear traps: Spotted this one in Tesla, which closed lower on Friday, just ahead of  Tech earnings 

The everything bubble continues. 
 
I had planned to reveal an important chart discovery, but I'm already out of time. 

Take care, and beware of the financial scammers on the X platform, posing as Trump supporters. 
 
 
 
 AA





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