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Friday, May 13, 2022

Market Update 5/13/2022 5:55 AM - Now It's Time For the Annual "Dash for Trash"!

The Dash for Trash! 

Well, it's been over a week, since my last blog, and the bears has been unsuccessful in their attempts to cause much panic selling, except in a few already beaten up sectors like tech, and Crypto, which I feel we need to include as a sector, since it seems like when crypto sells off, so does tech. And let's not forget about China, which I predicted would take several weeks to pull back, after the run we saw earlier in the year. 

Here's that call:

Of course, the lame stream media tries to make this sell-off sound exciting, and confuse the masses, by using certain buzz words.... and even by having guests on to try to explain away the $VIX  - out #1 market indicator - but at the end of the day we've only seen a few 300 point moves on the DOW, and even though the Dow was down 500 points - at one point - during yesterday's trade, it managed to end the day down only 100 points. This is important, because this early spring shakeout was only intended to shake out the meme traders, and tech junkies. 

The DOW chart - for comparison purposes - Keep in mind a 3% move on the dow is about a 1000 points, and here we are still trading above the 30,000 level! 


We did see Energy pull back, which no doubt spooked some investors, but again, this is a small sector


Getting The Main Event The Dash for Trash! 

The dash for trash is an event which takes place on Wall Street every spring - for as long as I can remember. You wouldn't think the market could be so predictable, but you typically see retail investors shaken out of their favorite stocks, in the beginning of the year, before the sharks go on a bottom of the barrel feeding frenzy. Even the so called covid crash - which really had very little to do with covid - was sold in march, and bought in April (30 days later). Same thing in 2021. Why should this time be different? 

We've already seen massive gains in a few names, like $COOK, and Carvana, and $RIDE, to name a few! 

In short until the market can sell off in a bearish channel, and extend losses for more than a month, then I'm going to continue picking bottoms. 

It's not like they (the controllers) have a choice but to continue throwing endless amounts of cash at this (ponzi) market, as they did when the market crashed in 2020, because they know, they're only 1 negative feedback loop way from the next Great Depression. 

As long as investors believe the fed has "tools", which can prevent a financial dooms day, then free money is going to be put to work. Hyperventilating over Russia, Inflation, or even quantitative tightening isn't going to change that. 

Of course a financial day of reckoning is coming, and in our lifetimes. This bull market is nearly 100 years old, and it has already traded into a massive liquidity bubble, and even Warren Buffett calls the directives market a financial "time bomb". 

BUFFETT: This is the 'time bomb' in the markets businessinsider.com

 I can't say for certain that the global collapse in equities hasn't already begun, but since Wall Street is picking up the trash, as they do every spring, I think not.

If you'd like access to the best charts on the internet, and all of my $VIX charts, and sentiment indicators, then you should join us on our private twitter feed at @3XTradersLive. 

A $49 donation to this website gets you in the door. Price subject to change after 1st month. 

Simply make you paypal donation, using the link in the side menu, and I'll let you in! 

Join today and I'll even give you my favorite buy and hold stock for 2022. That alone is worth the price of admission! If you're not completely satisfied I'll even refund your money, so you have nothing to lose! Act now, on this limited time offer!  

I have a lot of charting to get caught up on, so I gotta run. 

Hope to see you there, AA 





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Friday, April 15, 2022

Weekly Wrap-up - 4/15/22 - Good Friday, after another manipulated Option Expiration

 Yesterday was a Thursday Options Expiration, leading into a holiday, so it was a pretty sure thing that Energy would continue to hold up, and that included Oil. I caught a nice 16% rally in the $UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Leveraged Crude Oil Bull, and alerted to that trade just before Thursday's close. 



Again it was an easy prediction to make, considering that Every Options Expiration date is rigged, and especially when you're trading into a holiday. 

So, the trend continued into the end of the week, as expected: 

Stocks remained pinned in a range, and Energy remains pinned at recent highs. 

$USD ended the session slightly higher 


NatGas continues to hold up, and could even go higher, considering most traders are on vacation, but that also means that if Natural Gas crashes, there is going to be the lack of an underlying bid, meaning if you place a market order, rather than a limit order, you could end up selling at a huge discount to the asking price. Even Thurdsay, I found the bid ask on the $UCO, like 50 cents apart, and took 10 minutes or so to get my asking price. In a market crash, you don't have the same luxury....   

$NatGas - keeping close eye on this over the next few weeks. Looks like an emotional wave E throw-over. E of primary wave (B).   


A Wave B triangle is a counter-trend rally, and a wave E usually ends in a violent reversal, so that should be easy to confirm. 

NatGas: I have several alternate wave counts including a powerful wave C, which probably makes even more sense than wave E, because the count is easily divided into 5 waves

 


$NATGAS - I have over 20 NatGas charts working, so I have 100% confidence I will find the reversal, just as I did in BRENT crude.  

BRENT Crude Oil - now trading in a predictable suckers rally. It can go hire, but hit resistance on some short term charts, on Friday. It needs to consolidate...    



NatGas - Looking at the short term trend, it's obviously already overshot the top of the channel, just as Oil recently did, and we all know how that ended. 


So Energy continues to hold up, but if equities are going to rally into the summer, then I believe the smart money will be taking profits in commodities, very shortly. 

Another thing that continues to hold up is Canada, which despite the recent interest rate hike - something that was totally ignored by the lame stream media - Canadian Stocks continue to trade at all time highs. 

Reminder: If you're trading materials or commodities, or anything in that realm, you should also be watching the $TSX  

$TSX Canada 10 min. view 


Canada is doomed - The fed has already given the crooked banks plenty of advanced warning, so that they can plan the take-down of global markets, just as they did the covid crash - weeks/months in advance. They knew markets were going to correct regardless... as well as I did.   





The commodities based materials sector

In case you missed this suggestion in my Twitter feed last week  

Another economy that's closely tied to commodities and specifically mining 

Australia! Massive broadening top, as the power structure, with the help of the fed, has in desperation, has managed to keep the bubble inflated a little longer. 14 years later markets are in far worse shape... but no doubt they have stalled long enough to help them prepare for a collapse, and an authoritarian state. We saw some of those drills run during the covid lock downs.    


The Catalyst 

I'm mentioned climate collapse as a likely catalyst for what happens next, and Australia's climate is already at the tipping point.   

Now imagine a scenario where mining continues at full speed, while the rest of the economy grinds to a halt. That's entirely possible with the imminent collapse of the Ozone layer. 

Imminent Ozone Layer Collapse, A Dire Warning From A Former NASA Contract Engineer geoengineeringwatch.org 






Why You Don’t Hear About the Hole in the Ozone Layer Anymore




wish I had better news on this good Friday, but it looks like the covid lock-downs were just a dress rehearsal for the coming climate disaster, and I'm anticipating deflation, not inflation.  

I would still expect one last hurrah from US markets. Once tech finds a bottom, and traders return from vacation, money must be put to work.    

Have a great weekend, AA 


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Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Market Update 4/12/22 - Technical Tuesday 666 Natural Gas - dog-whistle - Bloomberg, and a Bullish Trade recommendation!

 Yesterday's pullback - on a Monday - came as a little bit of a surprise, but I was happy I left some short positions on over the weekend! Today, I start getting more bullish, and I'll let you know exactly where... further down the page.    


 There's nothing technical about yesterday's 6.66 target on Natural Gas, and I can't to think back to the bottom I called on the 08 crash, at 666 on the $SPX. I had no idea at the time, but I had some hedge funds watching me, and they piled in when that number finally came in. 



So, I'm watching Bloomberg around lunch time, yesterday, and they cut to the live Nat Gas chart, just as it hits the 6.66 target, and then they quickly cut away, and I could hardly believe what I was seeing. Well actually, I wasn't that surprised....  because, we know who is working behind the scenes, and who is "the prince, and the power, of the air", and I'm not talking about Jesus! See Ephesians 2:2 for more on that study. 

That 6.66 level became support after yesterday's market close, and now we see it hovering just above that number. 

NatGas target met: This is an image I saved from my Webull app. 6.66 precisely! 


Funny when I tweet that I'm going to cover my NatGas short, I get more likes than when when I call for 89 cent Natural Gas; says a lot about who the real contrarian is! 

NatGas still looks like it's trading in a broadening bottom of sorts, and the catalyst is real, or perceived climate collapse, which seems to be just around the corner.   


Also looking for a crash in Gold miners: 

Found this Elliott Wave Pattern on the Jr Miners chart just yesterday. I never really expected this index to reveal anything, or I would've found it sooner.... 

BitCoin is also collapsing in a heap, and that makes sense, since the gold bugs and the bitcoin people, seem to be in competition with each other. 

 Bitcoin taken down below the 50 day ma 

And if all that isn't enough to digest, I think I found a great trade!  

I haven't even charted it, but I recognized the pattern as an inverted H&S pattern, looking at my Webull app. And Notice how I'm not even promoting Webull here, even though I could potentially get free stocks...? I don't like adds on my blog, and don't need free stocks! If you appreciate that, then please make a donation to this website.  

3. Charting in Real Time: 

2. Drum roll please!

1. Boom!  

Forget you ever heard about the rigged $SPX index! This looks like it could be the next reddit trade! 

 $TMFX - Adding this chart to the public charts area. Resistance at the 50 day ma, around 17.20. 2. Next resistance around 19.20, but I'm looking for an easy double, for sure.



I like this fund because a million fools are about to pile into it, and that's why I'm calling it a "Reddit Trade". The fundamentals and holdings don't concern me, although I do encourage you to do your own homework.  

That pretty much does it for today, and have a happy holiday if I don't see you again before the weekend. I'm thinking about taking some time off, myself! 

Good Luck, AA 





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Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Market Update - Money Is Put To work At The Beginning of the Month

 Money Is Put To work At The Beginning of the Month

There are exceptions to the rule, and you typically see money be put to work on the first Monday, of the month, but I would expect any smart money manager to be buying the dip today. 

Futures are green

 Remember what I said yesterday, about market reversals taking place in the heavily manipulated futures market? This morning is another prime example... and I saw this coming, when I shut down the computer, before yesterday's close. You just seldom see short covering rallies, going into the close anymore. Why not buy the news when Powell is finished speaking, rather than trap the short sellers with an upside surprise?  The only logical explanation is that money isn't put to work until the 1st trading day of the year.  

Of course, the fake financial news networks will never report, that "futures are up, because markets are cyclical, and money is being put to work...", but this is a fact, and true 90% of the time. Money is also typically put to work on Monday's, but it's more exciting to report how "bullish investors are", at the start of each week. 

Look, money is going to be put to work at certain times of the Day, Week, Month, and Year, regardless of market sentiment, and knowing this, and using it to your advantage, is one of the keys to constantly winning.  

Speaking of winning:

The charts all seemed to line up nicely yesterday, as the $SPX took out my target on the 10 min. chart, and the $VIX remained contained, in the face of what can only now be described as another taper tantrum. Didn't I tell you the latest covid story, had nothing to do with this pullback?   

The crooked banks, and their Hedgefunds, and the IMF, or whoever has been trashing the Oil market, knew the Fed was planning a faster tapper weeks ago. Of course Powell doesn't want to upset markets, by dropping a bombshell like that, so he talks about tapering for how many months now, and then basically admits the word transitory was a lie? How do you expect the market to react...? CNBC should apologize for claiming the market doesn't only care about free money, but instead they continue to blame the "unvaccinated". News flash: The vaccine doesn't even prevent covid, in fact it requires you get regular booster shots, just like the flue vaccine, that they've been seen pushing on every network for years! Follow the money.   

Breaking News: South African Heath Minister Says C.1.2 Variant "Not A Threat" Sept 3rd Reuters. Yet today we see more mass hysteria, with the reporting of 2 cases, over here or there, as if it's the black death.    

As far as the market is concerned: No covid worries today? How is this possible? 

It may be too soon to say we're off to the races here, and we could see the DOW test the 200 day ma, and the 50 week ma - as well - but I can say, I'm breathing a lot easier this morning. My stress level has come way down, and it seems very appropriate that "happy new month" is trending, on twitter, at #4.

A word on stress:  

It's important to take a deep breath, once in a while, because what good is winning, if you're going to let the stress get to you? Do some meditation, breathing exercises, yoga, sauna, whatever works for you! This is probably the best trading tip of the year! 

I'm still trying to get a handle on some sector charts, and I don't see $SOX leading a rally higher, although we do see the NASDAQ leading again this morning, and I did give the all clear, yesterday. I even covered my $SQQQ short, and sitting on a pile of cash. I think having some cash on the sidelines is a good idea, until we see more certainty.    

NASDAQ all clear sounded 


As usual I put up a lot of charts up yesterday, and even updated the public charts area. 

You'll find the $SVXY chart now in the #1 position, which continues to be used to manipulate $VIX futures. In fact most the leveraged ETF's are used to manipulate the underlying indices, and I've shown you how the machines will even buy moving averages on these funds, which makes the underlying market, a more difficult read than ever. It was never easy to read the market, or predict the next move, but today's market requires watching so many moving averages, it's mind boggling. And on top of that, there are too many funds (period!). This is one reason we find ourselves trading in a bubble, and Warren Buffet is correct when he refers to derivatives as "weapons of financial destruction", and a day of reckoning is coming. Come what may, I just hope to be on the right side of trading history. 

A 3rd problem with all these funds being traded, and the machines buying every moving average, is that it constantly slows momentum, in either direction. Some will argue that it provides more liquidity to markets, but it seems like one fund is often left fighting another. For example: If financial sector traders all traded the $IYF chart, you would get more consistent outcomes, than you do with another group of traders trading the $XLF, and still others trading the banking indexes. It's not wonder channels are constantly breaking, and targets overshooting, in both directions. 

So what next?   

 I suppose the first question traders will ask would be, "can the market trade to new highs"? And although I know it can... we're still trying to build a base, and it will probably be Dec. 17th (OPEX Friday), before stocks start looking toppy again. I try not to make long term predictions, because no matter how good you think you are, you're bound to be wrong. You really have to analyse this type of choppy market, day to day, BUT it's could take a little while for the market to get it's legs back, and there will probably be another pullback along the way. 

One day at a time. 

Follow the public charts, I'll be charting live at today's open. 

Take Care, AA 



 

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