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Monday, April 10, 2023

Reminder - don't troll me with other peoples technical analysis

 Reminder: As I state in my "Chart Legend" (page tab) 

 Twitter Warning: I'm pretty liberal with the (twitter) block button, so don't pester me there. I'm not there to pump your position, or to hold your hand, and opinions - unless based in (sound) technical theory - are not appreciated.  

I can't tell you how many people I've had to block from my twitter feed, but It's probably in the 100's.  The internet is full of trolls, bots, and idiots, and I will err on the side of caution, and block... 

Case in point:  

If you follow the thread on the above tweet, you'll find this troll first complaining about the lack of direction, and then offering some kind of "wave B" theory, and a chart they obviously found on the internet. 

1. The direction is clear, and we got the direction right again on Thursday. 

Of course we saw some fools selling in pre-market, but if you took my advice, then you caught another nice little snap-back rally on Thursday! 

$SPX Thursday rally - ....as predicted before the opening bell. 


Now that I'm trading a leveraged account, I can take advantage of 1 day moves like this, and then get out... ahead of a long weekend; makes trading a lot easier, not having to wait for cash to settle! 

What made chasing that trade super-easy was the fact that the $VIX was being hammered to new lows, and that means that there was no fear.

2. Wave B? 

Troll replies 

"I was more referring to the potential 6 month long abc bearish Elliot wave flat formation than I was to the 12 day rally. I'm talking about B getting taken out to the upside, or a breakout below A."

Chart she included - as I later discovered - is from Elliott Wave Forecast, and is only an example of what a standard correction looks like lol

 



I actually visited elliottwaveforcasts site, and found that they themselves don't even claim that we're in a wave b.

$XLF (Financials EFT) - They apparently believe financials are trading in wave C of Primary wave (5), which I can tell you is probably wrong, and that's coming from someone (me) who proved Robert Prechter wrong in '08.

Note: Remember what I said about the $XLF index just the other day, when I was comparing this crash to the crash of '08.

"Of course many traders like to use the $XLF, but I find it to be less accurate..."

The $XLF isn't as accurate as an index, because ETF charts are constantly rebalanced.

Perhaps this troll was trying to bait me into revealing the Elliott Wave count, because the information she provided made no sense to me, and was obviously plagiarized. Not going to happen.

Could also be that she mistakenly believes that we're in wave b, but I'm just going to chalk this up as troll behavior. That would explain why her twitter account looks fake to begin with. 

I'm going to have to come up with a better way to weed out the trolls, but it's just easier to block... 

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Friday, March 31, 2023

Comparing Today's Financial Collapse to The Crash of '08

Is this a repeat of what we saw in late '07-'08.  It's too soon to say, but the similarities can't be ignored! 

Last year some people were claiming that the charts were reminiscent of the crash of 2000, and I debunked that. 

Comparing Today's Market To The Market Crashes of '08, & 2000

Today, I'm seeing something in the banking sector charts, that looks eerily similar to what we saw just ahead of the crash of 2008, and I suppose that's why I'm up at 2-3AM - most days - analyzing the action in Europe! More on that in a minute.  

$DJUSFN (Financials) Monthly Candlesticks - For those who missed the banking crisis of '08, this is the chart most of us used to track the financial collapse. The Dow Financials, or the $IYF (which is the corresponding ETF). Of course many traders like to use the $XLF, but I find it to be less accurate... 

What I want to draw your attention to on the chart below is the similarity of what we saw in late '07, and what we just saw in March 2023. Very similar timelines, and big red candle taking out support. 



Taking a closer look at how this take down was engineered

$BANK (Bank Index Nasdaq) - It looks like this collapse was planned for at least 10 months, and no doubt bearish Options were purchased during that time. This explains why the $VIX was mercilessly hammered - lower - during the same time frame. The lower the $VIX the; cheaper the Puts.    


If this was all timed according to the options market, that means we probably aren't going to see much upside until after April OPEX. 

It would be easy to figure out who coordinated this, just by looking at who was buying puts ahead of it, but don't hold your breath waiting for that investigation! 

Of course there will be good trading in this sector at some point, because every good crash deserves a snap-back rally, but unless you traded in '08, you may be better off avoiding this trade altogether.

I'd also stay alert to other sectors wh
ich may follow.... 

Seems to me, money panicked out of financials, and investors rushed in to buy tech, oil, gold, and even bitcoin. 

By the way, I recently raised my target on Bitcoin, just before we saw another higher high, on Thursday.


 Take Care, 
AA 


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Saturday, March 25, 2023

Weekly wrap-up Financials, Zombie Banks, Tech, China, and a CME

There's a lot to cover after last week, but I have a much better handle on things than I did on Thursday, following what looked like a panic close....

 See: The FOMC fallout in forex markets & the Crypto Crackdown - full story

Despite all the negative headlines, stocks actually ended higher (for the week). 

Friday's Action 

We didn't get the short squeeze I was looking for, but I did get the direction right. 

 Market futures looked pretty dire at the time I made that prediction, but the market still managed to eek out a pretty nice gain - 50 handles on the $SPX - (off the lows of the session). 

Off topic: 

I follow space weather, because a CME has the potential to wipe out way more than just the stock market - and this week's Solar Storm put on quite a show! 

Huge ‘doomsday’ blast from sun this week could have killed Earth’s internet www.kulr8.com

Strongest solar storm in nearly 6 years slams into Earth catching forecasters by surprise space.com



I retweeted this CME alert on the 23rd, because I could see it was massive, and if I see another massive CME pop up on my radar, I may send out an alert in the news letter, because that could be a catastrophic event, as much as we rely on technology! 

Speaking of Technology

Stocks actually ended up for the week, but I have to attribute that to 1st quarter window dressing. The best performing sector was tech, and of course China. Remember this is what led the rally - in Oct. - and tech out-performed in the 1st quarter.  

Window Dressing 

As we trade into the end of the First Quarter, any fund manager not fully invested in a leading sector, risks losing his, or her, job. We call this phenomenon, "being forced to chase performance". It's also called window dressing.    

Side note: $AAPL Apple Here's something funny. 

Just for kicks, I put a trend line on Apple, and tweeted it on Thursday 

Then Yesterday Friday, I see Carter Worth on Fast Money, covering Apple.  

If you happened to catch that, maybe you can tell me if he was bullish or bearish, because it just seemed wishy-washy as all get out. But I digress.  

What Next? 

If I'm correct, then we're about to see a run for the exits, as most brokerage houses have already closed their books on the Quarter. I call this phenomenon, "window dressing - going up in flames".  

Financials and Banks

As I said earlier in the week, this market reminds me of '08, when financials led the crash, and I still follow financials closely, including all the major banks, and even several regional banks. 

The financial crisis didn't end in '08. 

The Zombie Banks are like the walking dead, and require regular injections (of money) in order to keep them alive. 

Anyone who believes otherwise, just either doesn't have a good chart, or a good memory. 


Many of these Regional Banks are skating on thin ice, but I think we've seen the worst for now. 

The plunge protection team even came out in support of the banking sector after Friday's close.

Breaking News after the closing bell on Friday - FSOC (Financial Stability Oversight Council) aka the plunge protection team 

U.S. Treasury says FSOC agreed banking system sound reuters.com


Short term  

Financials trade into a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders pattern 


The $XLF didn't quite reach the (inverted) left shoulder target, so maybe we see another washout. 

This is obviously a super high risk trade, but this is how I roll!  

I don't like to rush into a trade like this, because the pattern is so obvious, to even the most unsophisticated investor, and no doubt many retail investors have already piled in. 

Watch for a Monday morning surprise, to shake them out. This has become the new normal; 
break key support, then back up the truck.

It's a crooked game. 

Speaking of ill gotten gains; Goldman Sachs is a name to watch, since they seem to be doing pretty well in the current environment. I call them, "government Sachs", because so many former GS work in the Treasury. I'm not sure why anyone would give up a high paying job in finance, to go work for the government, but who am I to judge?!   

26 Goldman Sachs Alumni Who Run the World (GS) investopedia

More 


$GS Goldman Sachs trending higher 


Take Care, 
AA 












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Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Market Update Regional Banking contagion, or more fake news?

 I don't have as much time as I would like to compose a proper blog. I slept in, and have been having a relaxing morning. I also went back and touched up yesterday's blog, after finding a couple errors, and another key headline to add. 

"All The World's A Stage, and all the men and women merely players;" Quoting Shakespeare 

I'm sure you know by now, I enjoy exposing the crooked banking cartel (aka the money printers), the financial fake news, and the phony politicians, as much as I love timing markets.

I didn't watch to see what CNBC worldwide exchange was peddling this morning, but I did watch some Bloomberg: 

If that's not absurd enough:

Then they brought on Dr. Doom, and in the introduction, they mentioned that the Prince of Financial Darkness - Nouriel Roubini - has ties to the Clinton administration! That's right, he's a government insider, and that might help explain how the Clinton's, and nearly every other higher up - even Berny Sanders - sees their net worth skyrocket.... The politicians and the banksters have been on the same team, for as long as I can remember. This is why I call our current government as "kleptocracy". 


How Nouriel Roubini Became a Research Brand

 institutionalinvestor.com


More Bloomberg fear mongering


Checkout this brief video clip from earlier in the week, where the camera shakes incessantly, as if the world is coming to an end. Total psyop






Another thing I heard Tom Keene report is that nobody is going to want to go long, going into a "long weekend". I swear this is what I heard, but as far as I know this is only a 2 day weekend. Maybe this is just a figure of speech, meant to scare investors.

Couple More Things


I put out the warning after yesterday's close...
If you were watching my twitter feed, and know how to read the $VIX, you knew what to do... 

Credit Suisse

As far as Credit Suisse goes... I got in and out of that trade, perfectly last time, and thinking about dumpster diving on this name, as I did half a dozen other trash stocks yesterday. Of course $CS could go to 0 (zero), but that's a chance I'm willing to take.... 



Take Care, AA 






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