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Thursday, June 1, 2023

Incredible market insight into the AI trade + exposing Inverse Cramer scammers

Continuing with the same topic we've been covering over the past few days: the so called AI/tech/chip boom; which has really been the only exciting thing driving animal spirits over the past several months, although  it's also beginning to look a lot like the annual "dash for trash" - in heavily shorted names. 

I can prove that all day long: 

 

Getting back to something I mentioned in the first update in this series: The options market.  

I like to think of the Options market as an underlying sub-market that more and more explains the real time market action we see every day. This market is where the hidden hand operates. This is where the big fish are lurking, and once you understand that, then you'll have an easier time understanding why the market moves according to certain timelines.

Think back to the market action of the past several months. Pretty dull right? Basically trading in a sideways range, and shaking out the weak hands on both sides of the trade. 

Well, while most traders have been waiting for the broader market to resolve itself, the smart money has been driving a sub market, and this time it was the tech sector. 

Before the tech sector; it was the casinos,the home builders, and even Silver...  and why is that? It's because these are thinly traded markets, and thinly traded markets are easily manipulated. 

Notice how you no longer hear about the home builders? There's a reason for that, and it's called, "sector rotation", and what I often refer to as, "whack-a-mole markets". 

When Jim Cramer says, "there's always a bull market somewhere", he isn't necessarily referring to the options market, but he recognizes that there are engineered stealth market rallies within the broader market, if you only know where to look, or personally know who is engineering it. 

Inverse Cramer 

I'm sure you've all seen the inverse Cramer accounts, which constantly pit the retail investor against whatever trade Cramer happens to be pushing. 

Yes Cramer is often wrong, and very wrong, and he's targeted, because retail money is going wherever he points, and that makes him a handy target of the hedge funds, but....   

These inverse Cramer accounts are obviously fake, and used to set up the retail investor for the fall, and all you have to do is a twitter search for "inverse cramer" to find 100's of trolls/bots pushing those accounts to the top (visibility). Just yesterday, I blocked like 20 of these fake accounts, and this isn't the first time I've discredited these scam artists. 

Who do you think got squeezed in this tech rally? Retail investors, of course!   

Luckily this time I saw this rally in tech continuing into last week's Memorial Day holiday, and I didn't find myself on the wrong side of that trade, but I can assure you that many retail short sellers are utterly wiped out. 

To give you some idea: I finished covering my positions in $SOXS (the leveraged $SOX bear ETF) on 5/24, just ahead of what can only be described as a historic $NVDA earnings release.  

It was the perfect swing trade! 

Getting back to the topic at hand - the Options Market 

In the first update in this series; I specifically mentioned the Najarian bros.; not because I think they're rigging markets, or doing anything else illegal, but because I know Jon Najarian has his hand on the pulse of the Options market. 

I found this interview from 3 months ago, and he offers some really intelligent perspective, and insight, on 0 days to expiration Options, as well as the recent $VIX action, and why that doesn't seem to work like it used to... 

Must Watch! He doesn't try to sell you anything, and I can assure you, I get nothing out of this. 


 I think I have a newfound respect for Jon Najarian, and a new way of looking at the market. Followed 

This tweet explains a lot: 

Massive short capitulation, as I've been saying. 

Fast Money's Take

Fast money thinks the retail investor was not buying NVIDIA... They seem to think that retail investors only have enough money to buy (meme) penny stocks, as usual they are completely out of touch. 

If I saw this trade coming from a mile away, and even alerted to it, then many retail investors were on board.   

Trading really is analogous to a game of poker, and the trick is to not be the sucker who is left holding the bag, and if you don't know who the sucker is, then that may be you! 

As far as the trade is concerned. 

I continue to see money flow from one chip stock to the next. 

For instance yesterday $AI was dumped, while Intel was bought, and this game of cat and mouse could easily continue into weekly Options Expiration.  

Take care, 

AA   

 



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Thursday, May 4, 2023

The Fed Continues To Throw Gasoline On The Fire

The Fed Continues To Throw Gasoline On The Fire 

The Fed raised another 1/4 point as expected, and they left the door open for further interest rate cuts. 

Bloomberg immediately reported that as "hawkish" (as in a pause), but the lame stream media had to try and save the "one and done" story they were pushing all week. 

What was interesting to me, is that Bloomberg already had their statement prepared, when I thought they had to wait for the actual release of the statement, like everybody else? Apparently not!  

Then came Chairman Powell's speech:

The market sure didn't take, as encouraging, or hawkish,



and to make matters worse; no sooner than the market closed, bad news was released on yet another failing bank. 

PacWest Bankcorp 

Bitcoin Rises as Latest Teetering U.S. Bank Sends Traders to Crypto Haven coindesk.com 

We also saw scared retail money continue to flee to gold, as I watched it spike to around the 2070 level 

I can't help but wonder where we would have ended the day, if the bad news hadn't been withheld  until after the close. 

No doubt we would've seen a bit more selling.... but market futures were not seen breaking any major support levels, and this morning we see the market ignoring Chairman Powells failings, and S&P 500 market futures are once again being propped up above the beloved 4100 level, in anticipation of all things Apple earnings! LOL 

China and tech both up

 The $HSI (The Hang Seng) was up 1% overnight. That doesn't make much sense from a technical standpoint, after the index was down 1% the day before, but it looks like some post holiday bargain hunting. 

$EEM (mostly china) is trading just below the 50 day ma, so that's something to watch today. 

I believe that needs to pull back more. 

Financials and Bank Stocks

This is obviously something to watch. Remember when I remained bearish on financials even as it rallied over the past 2 weeks? Well if I had been short, that bet would finally be paying off! 

$FAZ (3X Leveraged Financial Bear) - not suggesting you should pile into this one. 


All Eyes on $AAPL 

 As I laid out last week, the entire market hinges on the $QQQ, and FAANG stocks. 


Dip buyers always rush in, but let's assume that 90% of trading is performed by algorithmic trading programs, which are programmed by teams of tech gurus. Now, the market action makes perfect sense! 

Take Care, 

AA 

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Friday, April 21, 2023

The Elephant In The Room


That best describes the trade this week! 

Last weekend I described the trade as, "ridiculous as ever, which seems to have become the new normal." 

On Tues. I blogged on the Boring Market in Dull Markets Continue 

At least I've been consistent and right all along, but trading has been as excruciating, as I can ever remember. 

Sure, we're seeing a little whipsawing action here and there, but by the looks of it, we're going to close about UNCH (unchanged) for the week. 

Yesterday, we finally got a little rebalancing, and I can hardly even believe I got that call right! 

That's right, after a week of trading in a range, I called for a correction, back to the extreme lower end of that range, and we finally saw stocks end deep in the red. 

Of course nobody else saw this coming, or there would have been at least 1 like on the tweet. Sense my frustration? 

I actually saw the sell-off coming, around 2PM CST in real time

I suppose most traders would be thrilled to be right so many times in a row, but I like to trade leveraged ETFs, and I'm not usually jumping in and out of trades intraday, as a "pattern day trader".

At some point in the near future I see myself being upgraded by my broker to that status, but I'm not in any hurry to be labeled as such. If you're unfamiliar with what I'm talking about, here's an explanation 

As I was saying  I mainly trade leveraged ETF's, and these funds bleed value when you hold onto them in a flat market, and if you find yourself in a flat market, at some point you have to fish, or cut bait. This is why I recommended traders sit on their hands, until the $VIX starts breaking out. 
This constant bleed in leveraged ETF's also explains why the moving averages aren't very accurate, but that doesn't stop traders from actively trading those levels. 
Yesterday, we did see the $VIX finally move, but it was quickly sold as usual. 
I used the opportunity to take some money off the table, which is very frustrating, but the situation is what it is. At some point you have to have the discipline to do what is required, in order to trade another day.
$VIX
If the $VIX breaks out above 18, then I may be forced to chase the downside, and there is a good possibility that the only thing that is holding this market up is Options Expiration - as we saw just ahead of the covid crash. That crash wasn't allowed to take place, until the following Monday. 

The Elephant In The Room 

The Elephant in the room is OPEX, and I was shocked to see Bloomberg report on it this morning! 

 I watched the TV coverage, and the news girl joked that this was probably a first... as she explained that the market hasn't been pinned like this for a very long time, and then she went on to talk about how money managers were basically being forced to buy (options) protection, which made no sense.
 Look, if MM's were buying protection, the $VIX would be up, and the market would be more likely to close up on OPEX. Even so, I think there's a good chance the $SPX finally closes above the 4100 level, this time.  
Then Bloomberg cut away to what can only be described as a NY City sunrise (climate engineering) psyop: Red skies are caused by particulate matter, high in the atmosphere, and that's why red sun rises, and sunsets, have become the new normal. I've been documenting this effect for over a decade now.


I sure do miss the beautiful sunrises we used to see, before climate engineering. 

The powers that be, only claim to be looking into climate engineering, as a way to cool the planet, because in fact, they've already been at this for a very long time. This is the number 1 threat to humanity, second only to nuclear annihilation, and it's being hidden in plain sight.   

Related Documentary Exposes The Truth About Climate Engineering:
The Dimming, Full Length Climate Engineering Documentary: Exposing the climate geoengineering cover-up 
Take Care, AA 



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Monday, April 10, 2023

Reminder - don't troll me with other peoples technical analysis

 Reminder: As I state in my "Chart Legend" (page tab) 

 Twitter Warning: I'm pretty liberal with the (twitter) block button, so don't pester me there. I'm not there to pump your position, or to hold your hand, and opinions - unless based in (sound) technical theory - are not appreciated.  

I can't tell you how many people I've had to block from my twitter feed, but It's probably in the 100's.  The internet is full of trolls, bots, and idiots, and I will err on the side of caution, and block... 

Case in point:  

If you follow the thread on the above tweet, you'll find this troll first complaining about the lack of direction, and then offering some kind of "wave B" theory, and a chart they obviously found on the internet. 

1. The direction is clear, and we got the direction right again on Thursday. 

Of course we saw some fools selling in pre-market, but if you took my advice, then you caught another nice little snap-back rally on Thursday! 

$SPX Thursday rally - ....as predicted before the opening bell. 


Now that I'm trading a leveraged account, I can take advantage of 1 day moves like this, and then get out... ahead of a long weekend; makes trading a lot easier, not having to wait for cash to settle! 

What made chasing that trade super-easy was the fact that the $VIX was being hammered to new lows, and that means that there was no fear.

2. Wave B? 

Troll replies 

"I was more referring to the potential 6 month long abc bearish Elliot wave flat formation than I was to the 12 day rally. I'm talking about B getting taken out to the upside, or a breakout below A."

Chart she included - as I later discovered - is from Elliott Wave Forecast, and is only an example of what a standard correction looks like lol

 



I actually visited elliottwaveforcasts site, and found that they themselves don't even claim that we're in a wave b.

$XLF (Financials EFT) - They apparently believe financials are trading in wave C of Primary wave (5), which I can tell you is probably wrong, and that's coming from someone (me) who proved Robert Prechter wrong in '08.

Note: Remember what I said about the $XLF index just the other day, when I was comparing this crash to the crash of '08.

"Of course many traders like to use the $XLF, but I find it to be less accurate..."

The $XLF isn't as accurate as an index, because ETF charts are constantly rebalanced.

Perhaps this troll was trying to bait me into revealing the Elliott Wave count, because the information she provided made no sense to me, and was obviously plagiarized. Not going to happen.

Could also be that she mistakenly believes that we're in wave b, but I'm just going to chalk this up as troll behavior. That would explain why her twitter account looks fake to begin with. 

I'm going to have to come up with a better way to weed out the trolls, but it's just easier to block... 

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