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Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Market update 3/29/2017

S&P rallies off the 50 day

We got our reversal on Monday (as predicted), and by yesterday's close the market had taken back the loses of the past 2 weeks. Trump is being made the scapegoat, as expected, but what's also obvious is that Trump (good) news is going to send the short sellers running for cover. Beware the short squeeze.   

$SPX 2 hour chart doesn't look right, and was sold at a key Fib target. That's bearish

The charts don't look as pretty as they have for the past few months, and it could be a while before a clear pattern emerges. Best bet is probably to sit on your hands for a week or 2.  

We've seen some real damage in the financial sector, followed by a short squeeze, and that feels like a bear market.  A shakeout below the (blue) trend line, followed by a short squeeze isn't unusual, and going by the daily candlestick chart below, you want to sell this market. If we were seeing some follow-through on yesterday's buying, and a gap above the blue line that would be a different story. 

$SPX DCS chart looks like a bearish back-test. 

Financials have traded into a down-turned bearish channel. If it breaks out of this pattern then I suppose the short squeeze will continue, but until we see that, the trend is your friend.  Also be sure to check out the broken $BKX chart located in the public charts, and sell the bearish back-test.  

I see a possible down-turned megaphone pattern developing on the $INDU, with a sell target at my red line?  Could also break out after a pullback, but the market has a lot to prove here. 

SPX - short term trending up on a 5 min chart, but the pattern has changed. Looks like a bearish leading diagonal triangle in purple. Wave "a" target looks like 2370, then a pullback, then another rally in wave c. It takes time for patterns to develop, even on a 5 min chart.

It's possible wave "D" goes higher than the previous all time high, but like I said the market has a lot to prove. Maybe we see a run for the exits ahead of the Passover holiday, followed by a low volume rally into April OPEX.  

Canada - Also looks like a suckers rally in wave B on the $TSX, but in a broadening (bearish wave A) triangle. 

I don't really see energy tanking here, but Canada is heavily invested in miners. 

Miners could see a big move. 

$GLD - Gold seen breaking down

Oil - reversal and a breakout 

Treasuries: Treasury markets are moving the equities market, so there's a good chance we trade sideways, and choppy for a while, but at some point the FED is going to reverse itself. A topic for another day. 

That's it for this hump day, AA 

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