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Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Market Update 6/14/07 - trading into The Fed announcement

Trading into the Fed announcement

I spent most of the day, yesterday, troubleshooting some serious connectivity issues, and I consider it a miracle, that I was able to provide a market update yesterday morning. I didn't get my technical issues straightened out until around 9 PM, at which time I tweeted out the updated 1 min $SPX chart (below), and pointed out that the $VIX was down 10% from where I called it a (risky) sell on Friday. I don't suggest anyone should trade anything as volatile as the $VIX, or the leveraged $VIX (short), but whatever moves I guess... 

In last nights tweet: I also predicted that the market is going to pause for a day - in a tight range (seen in purple). At that time I was unaware of the timing of today's Fed announcement, but it only makes sense that the market would consolidate going into the fed, before being given another green light. 

$SPX 1 min chart worked flawlessly while I was away. That's going to make, getting caught back up to speed a lot easier.

Watch for the market to trade into a range in minuette wave "iv". This is actually a sub-minuette wave iv, but I like to annotate the charts, and speak in terms most people can understand, rather than use proper Elliott Wave annotations.  

 $INDU - the dow continues to break out to new highs

$NDX seen rallying off support.

Note that is the Fed chokes, and doesn't raise rates by at least a quarter point, Gold is going to spike on the news, but regardless... we should see a relief rally. 

 $Gold bounces off the 50 day ma - bullish

$USO - Oil breaks back down into what looks like a bearish channel. Upper blue channel line, and my red line, becomes resistance. Wave 3 should look like a crash, so anything less than that looks like more bullish consolidation. We'll get this trade sorted out shortly.

NATGAS - in the meantime - has proven to be the better short sale. I predicted this weeks ago.

There's a good chance financials are in a bear market, and any good news, already priced in. Sell the news?

$RIFIN - pullback into wave "iv" (of C)

$RUT - If the news is sold, and the market falls apart, risk off starts here.

Good Luck, Traders 

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