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Thursday, July 13, 2017

Market Update 7/13/2017

Seeing the market rigged higher ahead of July OPEX, just as it was dumped ahead of June OPEX. This is exactly what I predicted... and now you see it playing out in real time.

$SPX 1 min chart: Short term support at 2438 & 2432. Resistance 2446 (and a breakout above 2447 as soon as tomorrow). As you can see on the chart below, the SPX was driven above support after seeing a little bear trap - helped by more fake news about the Trump campaign colluding with Russia.... Never trust the financial networks; It's very easy for a few unscrupulous fund managers to move the market where ever they want on light summer volume, and use the fake news to promote their false narratives.

$IYR  REITS  This is one of the sectors they're using to drive this short squeeze. Of course they had to wait until Yellen's testimony, and shorts are covering on that...

This rally is also being led by tech; after the networks reported - a couple weeks ago - that tech is out of favor with Money Managers ....blatant lie. Investors never give up on the first leg down; they always "buy the dip"; even in wave 1 in a bear market they buy the dip.    

 I think we can expect to see the market continue to hold up going into the beginning of earnings season, and OPEX next week, but is that worth trading? I don't know, and several charts don't look good, and although the short term SPX chart is working, it doesn't show the bigger picture.

The DOW - although it made a new high it looks like it wants to trade into a slightly higher (bearish) wave D target. The chart is a mess, because the market is thinly traded, and manipulated, in my estimation, but it is what it is. I think there's a good chance this pattern is wrong, but we'll get back on track once traders return from summer break. This is never a good time to trade. Short term support looks like the blue line, and I think there's a good chance yesterday's gap up, is filled.

 $SPX - I have 2 60 min charts I'm looking at. The first one shows the market trading in a tight range.

$SPX - broke out of the down-turned wedge, but the next direction is hard to predict. If the market breaks down we're looking at a washout to the 2400 level, but it could continue to break out to the top of the broadening range in purple.

 I have 3rd view of the SPX which I'll be updating in my twitter. Watch the range withing the thin blue lines, and the 2429 level.

I suggest you keep your trades on a short leash, and watch the $VIX. Support, or Pivot point, looks like 9.95 - 10. The chart below is going to determine the trade going forward. As long as fear remains contained, and the market continues to rally into next week, don't fight it.

 Financials look bad, but you know they want to drive them higher on earnings. Do we see risk taken off ahead of time? It's hard to say

I'm already out of time, so I have to cut this update short. I'll be posting the financial chart, and the Oil chart, after the opening bell.



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