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Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Market Update 5/14/2019 - Reviewing the pullback of the past week

Picking up from yesterday's blog.

Something I forgot to mention yesterday, was that I sounded the warning this past Friday May 10th, telling folks to put on protection, because the trend has been to take futures down overnight, and gap the market down the following morning, and that trend continued on Monday, where the market gapped down 50 handles. 

This was a pretty easy call, on a short squeeze Friday. ...way easier than calling the reversal on May 3rd, and this extends my winning streak to 6 days in a row. 

Emerging markets have been leading the way down, as seen on the chart below. Starting from May 3rd - where the financial news networks were seen falsely reporting, "new all time market highs". The $SPX is not a clear representation of the broader market, and this is why don't trust most of what's being reported, I trust the charts, and I chart everything. The $NYSE is not trading anywhere near a new all time high. Most major indices aren't...  

$EEM Chart: You can see on the chart below where the market has gapped down each morning, starting with the bearish lower high on May 3rd. The selling has been very orderly, and thus far this has been easy trading, but will this trend continue? I think not, but since OPEX is just around the corner, I believe we will see a tradeable rally, at least.

The charts have changed:

Long term - the market is still trending up, but all but a few bullish charts are broken, and I have a ton of analysis to do.

This I can tell you: As long as the $VIX remains below 20.50 then the risk-off trade is going to remain off. 2. Odds of a counter trend rally into OPEX is very high. I think we're at or close to a tradeable bottom.

Even looking at the market from a somewhat bearish point of view, we could easily retrace back to. or just above, DOW 26,000. 

The Financial chart I revealed yesterday, is one chart that didn't break, so it'll be interesting to see if that sector can lead the market higher.

Here's the updated chart I blogged yesterday: The breakout point will be the 50 day moving average, so is should be pretty obvious.

  To be honest I've reached the point where I can time markets accurately, and consistently, and once you reach this level, you don't want to give away all your secrets, and that's kind of where I find myself. I get a few donations here and there, but not enough to amount to much. I was thinking about doing a webinar broadcast, or launching a new membership site, but that's going to distract from my work. I'm really not sure where I want to go from here, so I may just take some time off, work on the book, and enjoy the summer.           

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