Monday, January 1, 2024

Good things coming in 2024?

I've already written quite a bit on 2023 (in review), and everything that has led up to this moment in time, so you should definitely review all the recent updates, for information related to the current market environment; including Friday's update EOY Window Dressing Continues into 2024  

Looking ahead to 2024   

In order to get a good handle on what to expect in 2024 we need to look back to the Covid liquidity bubble of 2021-22, and the length of time it takes for a bubble to unwind.  

Excess money printing - in the form of stimulus and QE - was no doubt hatched as a way to ensure that the ponzi economy would quickly recover once Donald Trump, and Boris Johnson, were out of the way, but the globalist banksters overplayed their hand, and now we're all paying the price in the form of higher prices on most everything, from housing to bitcoin. 

Sure, the rate at which inflation is rising - as measured by the fed - has fallen but prices remain near all time highs, and eventually prices always return to the mean.   

From a technical standpoint when a market doubles in only 2 years - as the $SPX did between 2020, and the end of 2021 - it's going to take a good long time from consolidation to complete, and I believe we're not even halfway there. 

We didn't even come close to seeing capitulation, in the pullback of 2022. In fact the bottom formed at lower $VIX numbers.   

An Important Discovery 

I think one of the greatest discoveries I had in 2023, was the $SPX 5000 (futures) target... 

 I would have never found that SPX 5000 target, unless I had first discovered that market manipulation starts with US market futures.  

 There is no other explanation for the pump n dump (overshoot) rally of 2020 - 2021, than that 5000 (futures) target, followed by profit taking in 2022 (for tax reasons), and there's no other reason for the market to be pumped to the same bubble highs in January 2024, than to "ring the register", for a second time. 

  Good things coming in 2024?

I'm afraid not. 

Sure, in the short term, we could see the $SPX pumped to the 5000 level, and since the bulls are fixated on round number targets, and Joe Sixpack is fixated on the Dow, we could even see Dow 39 - 40k, and especially if Donald Trump is prevented from running a second time!

$INDU - Looks like the Dow could be headed to 39,000, before year end.


Today the market has been driven back into bubble territory, because they're still hell bent on making Joe Biden look good, ahead of election 2024, but they could just as easily crash it again, if Trump were somehow able to win a second term. 

The establishment likes more government spending, and less regulation, as we saw under Clinton, Obama, and Biden. Doesn't matter if they call themselves (republican or Democrat); fiscal conservatism is dead. 

$INDU - Democrats & Republicans working together = markets higher. 


In the meantime

The smart money is selling, and if you don't believe me, then just look at what Warren Buffet is doing. 

Warren Buffett Selling $28.7 Billion in Stock Rings Alarm Bell Over Economy newsweek.com

I got a few things wrong in 2023: 

1. The extent of the banking collapse. I caught a falling knife there.   

2. I also got bitcoin wrong, as I had no idea that this would be used as a cash cow for the controllers. Especially going into the end of the year, when it became clear that they had only driven Bitcoin up, in order to raise some much needed cash.

I did get the sector rotation out of energy, oil, and Natural Gas right, and that is something nobody else was predicting. In fact the lame stream media purposely brought certain people on TV in order to tell you that tech couldn't lead another bull market.

Just goes to show whatever is working, tends to continue to work for longer than you would expect. 

Thankfully I don't believe anything I see on TV, and I was able to make up for any losses from earlier in the year, by sticking with my energy short. Just goes to show there's always a bear market somewhere.   

Speaking of the energy trade

That sector rotation, in and out of energy, helped  fuel the tech rally, but it also did something else. It prevented capitulation, because energy was used as a safe hiding place.

In a true market correction there is no safe hiding place. 

Take care, AA 


No comments:

Post a Comment