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Monday, August 14, 2017

Market Update 8/14/2017

 I don't have a lot of time to blog this morning, but I wanted to put out a warning that we're not out of the woods, yet...  this is no time to become complacent! 

The market built a base on Friday, as expected, but we're only seeing futures up marginally.

The bears don't like to sell-short into the weekend, and you typically see money put to work on Monday. We call this, "mutual fund Monday", in a bear market. I can't confirm a bear market on this 3 day pullback, but once we get into a bear market, you can expect to see many capitulation Friday's, followed by upside surprises on Monday's. Something to keep in mind.... 

The short term trend remains down, so we can't rule out a bear market. This may only be a suckers rally in wave c/ii of 2, and that points to a crash in wave iii of 3. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally into OPEX, and continue into the end of the 3rd quarter... just keep your guard up, until we get some distance off these lows. We're going to breakout back above the 50 day ma, this morning, and that's going to be the level to watch, $SPX 2448, and rising...  

The recent panic selling has to do with #Brexit, and the fact that the fake financial news isn't reporting it, is a big red flag. Everything else being reported, is a diversion.

 This is what the beginning of a prolonged bear market looks like.

Another thing worth mentioning is the fact that the $RUT has lead the declines, and that points to risk off. If you're trading the $RUT: expect this snapback rally, to last at least a couple days, but support on the fear gauge ($RVX) looks like 15.25.

 $VIX fell below the 16 level going into Friday's close, and that was a clear buy signal, and as long as that resistance holds, no fear.

If you're looking for something to sell, try Gold. The $GLD has traded into a right shoulder, on a bearish head and shoulders pattern.

If you trade currencies the $USD/YEN looks oversold - at support at the bottom of the channel - and has already bounced out of the hole this morning.

 I have several other projects I'm working to complete, before the end of the summer, but I'll continue to update this market, and call it as I see it, as time permits.
 GL this week, AA

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