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Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Market update 8/2/2017

Caught a nice reversal last week, although it only lasted a couple hours. If you blinked, you missed it. The financial fake news claimed, "tech was leading the declines, but it was actually Transportation getting hammered.

$TRAN leading the way down. Dow soon to follow...

The Dow has been presses higher every day, but these are tiny moves. 100 points on the Dow is only .50% with the Dow trading at 22k? The trend remains up, but only a few stocks being used to pump it higher. Yesterday Boeing, Tomorrow IBM, etc.The Dow doesn't even represent the broader market, but the retail investor isn't aware of that fact. They hear the fake news report "new market high", every day, and they believe it. 

$INDU - I identified this upturned channel on the Dow, on Friday, but I believe this is too aggressive.
 I believe we're about to see another pullback.

$SPX - the crazy target looks like 2483 - 2485 in an emotional wave e, of B. Looks like another head-fake rally.

It's possible we've already seen the top, and If the market sells off below the 1000 min average again, sell that. Downside target looks like 2462 (at my pink lines), and 2455 in a parallel channel (seen in purple, if support breaks.  

 May just chop sideways in this range. It's really too soon to make an accurate call, until the pattern is identified.

Tech seems to be finally bouncing back today, lead by $SOX, which looks like a possible Wave "D" target, in a broadening triangle.  1101.29 is first resistance. 1080 support. 

If you're looking to sell the $SPX keep an eye on the 10.25 level, for a possible breakout.

My best guess it we're going to see another little shakeout, ahead of OPEX, followed by another short squeeze, heading into the end of the fiscal year (Sept window dressing), but that date could be cut short, so I remain vigilant, going into the fall. 

Take Care, AA

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