$SPX - the chart looks like a mess, because trading is choppy. We just came out of a period of extended consolidation, as the market continues to try to build a base above the 2500 (2495) level. Keep in mind this is a 1 min chart, and these moves are smaller than they look...
#INDU - Dow 5 min chart: Looks like the bear trap was set going into Friday's close, just as I had predicted...
We have not even seen as much as a pullback in the $RUT, and that doesn't point to a risk off scenario, and the $VIX continues to stay down. There's just no fear in the market, and that can point to complacency, but it is what it is. Money is being put to work, and money moves markets, and until some event causes working folks to stop investing in their 401k's that trend is going to continue.
I thought the market may top out in a few weeks, around the 2530 - 50 level, but at this rate, it could take the rest of the year.
I remain bearish energy, and money managers need to show they're invested in the best performing sector, Tech, and there's still 2 day's left in the quarter. I'm expecting to see the sector rotation, we've seen over the last few months, reverse. "There's always a bear market somewhere".
Looks like we saw the pump and dump in energy on Monday, but time will tell...
Short term the market is anticipating republican tax cuts, and probably going to get it. There's your catalyst... but then what? Once all the good news is priced in, and everyone is bullish, and fully invested, there's only one thing left to do, and that's to take profits. Hopefully that's the catalyst for a nasty reversal, and not some cataclysmic event. The first leg down, even in a crash is usually written off as a "healthy correction", and buyers step in.... It would be highly unusual to see a sudden crash, and a continuing crash, unless this time is different.
I'm not expecting WWIII any time soon, but a cyber attack, an EMP attack on the east coast, a nuclear attack on a major city, or even a natural disaster, staged (false flag) or real, are all possible catalyst for a major market reversal, and few are prepared for it, and when I say "prepared", I'm talking in a survival sense, not trading. There may be no trading... markets may be closed, as well as banks, and ATMs. Hoard some cash, drinking water, canned goods, batteries, and think about how you're going to cook, and keep warm, if you lose power in the winter.
I'd like to blog, or vlog, on the subject of preparedness, but it's takes a lot of time to put something like that together.
Out of Time, AA
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