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Friday, June 2, 2023

It's That Time Again!

 Yes, It's That Time Again! 

It's time to call another market top, and expose the financial fake news. 

Subscribers to the weekly newsletter already have the target on the SPX, because we've been waiting for it for several weeks now, and here I am trying to pin it down, early this morning. 

 I'm up around 3:00 AM, most mornings, which is what is required to perform my analysis. West coast traders are at a real disadvantage, just because they're all sound asleep when European markets open.  

This is where the front-running of global markets takes place, in Europe. 

This capitulation top looks well choreographed, as I tweeted early this morning. 

4250 is a good psychological target, but more importantly, it looks perfect on the chart

Of course it could throw over the top of that line, and especially if investors believe the fake news narrative, but I think you can't fool Wall Street. 

Fake News - Pump primed 4 days ago Reuters

Marketmind: Relief rally eyed on US debt ceiling deal

Create a false narrative - US debt default - sell it to the public, and then avert a crisis, and call it a "relief rally". 

The other Fake Story 

The AI story lives on, even if the rally only lasted 2.5 days, but this is exactly the false narrative we've come to expect over a long Memorial Day holiday. 

I think an AI controlled market could not have done a better job than this. I think it takes human wisdom to fool human investors. 

AI doesn't come up with a Chinese "bear market" story, in order to drive the Hang Seng up 4% the very next day. 

AI doesn't invite guests on, to try to convince investors of a "real AI boom". I actually saw this being reported by Bloomberg this morning.   

Of course, the usual suspects are trying to spook any would be short sellers! 

Is Stock Poised for a Short Squeeze?

But Wait There's More! 

The Japanese NIkkei makes a new higher high, along with the $SPX, and the Nasdaq 

It's really hard to know what to sell first, so I suggest diversifying.... 

That brings me to my next point: 

The $NYSE & The Dow are lagging 

This is pretty normal for the Dow, to lag the other indices. 

I'm just a little unsure where a sell-off in Tech starts, and where a sector rotation back into industrial names begins? 

Pro short sellers took the week off, and Monday is the first Monday of the month, so maybe they take their time building short positions, as retail money is put to work. 

This morning's Payrolls number could be the catalyst for a reversal, but it all depends if the weekly options are going to pay. 


Watch the $VIX...  this still drives the options market. If they pull the rug out on the $VIX then the bears can expect to remain trapped....  

The bulls, many of whom are retail investors, bought into a holiday rally, and there's a chance they could have the rug pulled right here. That would set up for a buy the dip scenario on Monday. 

The Fed reports in less than 2 weeks so I'm expecting a massive reversal before we see another sector rotation, and I'm hoping to have a better handle on the charts by then; however if the market continues to hold up on light summer volume, we may not see much of a sell off until August, yet it's hard to imagine anyone would leave money on the table... 

Good Luck, AA  

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