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Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Market Update ahead of The FOMC announcement - Russell 2000, Tesla, Tech, AI, $SPX, $VIX

 Seems to me the market has priced in a Fed pause, and since the market usually gets what it wants, I think we can expect that today. That should be good for a relief rally, at least. 

June OPEX is in 2 day's, so we could see volatility return shortly. In fact we've already seen some buying of the $VIX. 

Most traders think the $VIX is broken, but it's just easily manipulated. When the powers that be decide to take the market down, they know what to do... believe me!  

I think the market is less concerned with today's FOMC announcement, as it is about driving stocks higher, in order to take profits; just as we saw at the end of 2021. 

In the meantime I've been busy updating some long term charts.

To give you some idea of the work I got cut out for me; I have at least 19 long term views of the $SPX in my long term folder. This doesn't even include the LT views in my trend folder.

The charts have changed somewhat, over the past several months. 

Many of these charts have names that no longer apply - for instance "broadening top" - and need to be renamed. It's an arduous process.  

$SPX - here's one I haven't looked at in years - since the market overshot the top of the range in 2021.

Of course the only reason the market was driven to those extremes was greed, and greed continues to drive the market in 2023. Only when we see fear, panic, and despair, can we look forward to a true, "bull market". 

Tech - I've updated the tech chart in the public charts area - find a link in the side menu  

Bloomberg was seen pumping Airline stocks yesterday, so I decided to chart one. 

$XAL - interesting pattern! 

Bloomberg is trying to sell us an Airline recovery. Travel

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) June 13, 2023

The Russell 2000 retested the highs yesterday, and I thought, "did I sell too soon, or is greed driving the breakout above my blue pattern line? I think the latter.

$IWX (Russell Top Value) - breakout into a right shoulder, at my red line.  

The sentiment indicators agree   

In early 2021 we saw the number of stock trading at new highs, outnumbered those trading at new lows, in what can only be described as a historic level. In fact I believe we will never see buying like that in our lifetime.   

After an extreme reading like that, one would expect bearish sentiment to return, and reach extreme levels, but today - more than 2 years later - we continue to see bullish sentiment remain at high levels.  

It could be that daily manipulation of the $VIX, and 0DOE, has blinded the market to longer term risk, and that's a dangerous thing. 

Getting back to the charts: 

It looks like speculators are driving the $SPX higher, using a 15 min. chart view. 
As long as that chart continues to work, that's the one to watch. 

AI stocks continues to drive the market higher 

Tesla $TSLA - the target looks like it's very close

One last thing: 

Day before yesterday; it looks like Goldman Sachs trapped some oil bears, by putting out a negative press release. 

Take Care, AA 

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