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Friday, December 30, 2016

Market update - Last trading day of the year

Last trading day of the year

Without getting into the politics surrounding the fear we've seen in the market this week - we saw the $VIX find it's legs and break above resistance (the previous high) @ 13.42. That now becomes support, but I'm expecting the $VIX to break down, below that level, maybe no sooner than the opening bell. 

The $SPX found support as per my 5 min chart tweeted out, around noon, yesterday, 12/29/16, but there are several possibilities, in this sideways range.
With out getting into advanced Elliott Wave Theory, I think I've narrowed down the possibilities to 2. 

  1. Market trades back to the top of the range - around the 2275 level on the S&P (in wave D). 
  2. We back-test failed support @ 2258, pull back and rally into a bearish wave ii of C (a suckers rally). The Fibonacci target on that trade looks like 2260ish. 
Either way I'm expecting this sideways consolidation to continue, and considering that Money Managers (MM's) should be forced to put money to work at the beginning of the year, I like option 1 the best. This outlook is also bolstered by the tight range the Dow is trading in. 
The 5 min $SPX chart:   

We saw a monster 7.5% rally in gold miners yesterday. That's a 22% move on the 3X leveraged ETF's, and I don't think it's quite over yet.  
This confirms the panic trade into gold, but as powerful, as this move was, I believe this is only a snap-back rally - on the $GDX - in wave iv of 3. Resistance is 22.44 on the chart below. 
The opening bell just range 10 minutes ago, so 
let's refresh the charts, and post them again. 
Little changed on the $SPX 

 $GDX up another 1.22% - with mild resistance at 22.18 

That's about all the time I have for today. 
Happy Happy New Year, Traders. 

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