Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Gold and gold miners in focus



Back to the drawing board on Gold and gold miners

This is a volatile trade, and not for the faint of heart, as I warned warned folks last week. Junior gold miners up 7% is nothing out of the ordinary, and it's easy to move the entire index by driving a few key names. Some of the ones to watch are, Gold Corp $GG, Barrick Gold $ABX, Newmont $NEM, and Cramer favorite Rand Gold $GOLD. Remember, TheStreet.com was behind last years gold rally from the start in 2016. Can you say manipulation? 

Here's a funny headline:


Investor anxieties give US gold miners a boost - financial times 



Funny, because when investors have anxiety, they take risk off, not pile into risky gold mining stocks. Bloomberg insinuated - in their reporting yesterday - that investors on the street were expecting miners to make a move. I wonder who tipped them off?  Enough #FakeNews

We have tons of charts to look at: 

I took a good long look after yesterday's close, went to bed thinking about it, and spent another hour charting in preparation for this update, this morning. There are several gold miner indexes, the Goldbug index, the $GDX (DUST & NUGT follow this one, the NYSE Arca index (mentioned in the article above), the juniors, and the $GDM. 

 I could spend a week on gold and silver, but I only have 30 minutes to wrap this update up, before the opening bell rings. 

Gold 


Resistance at 1243. I'm going to call support 1182 (right near the 50 day ma). Wave A of 2 in a bear market.


The Gold Bugs Index $HUI 

Driven above resistance at the open (the pink line now becomes support). Also watch the 219.35 level. Not sure that breakout is going to last. Wave 4 shouldn't interfere with the price action in wave 1, but Elliott Wave Rules can be broken on the thinly traded index. Kind of acts like a wave A (impulse), and that matches my EWC on the gold chart. 

The Juniors' $GDXJ 

Can't rule out a wave II of 3, suckers rally, leading into a devastating crash in wave III of 3, and that would no doubt take out the lower blue line.   


Randgold - pretty straight forward chart 




Barrick Gold


I spent a lot of time on this chart, so give it time to soak in.  Super-bearish EW count (ii of 3). 



Goldcorp looks like it could break out here, but that remains yet to be seen. 


Anglo American AAL.L

Certain Gold mining stocks haven't even begun to pullback from last years highs. Proves junk miners are being used to drive this market. 


Glencore is another one...

$GDX

As for the short term this is the miner chart I tweeted out this morning. Acting like it wants to consolidate retest the highs one more time.  The EW count is a double ZigZag, and that's bearish. 

Speaking of double ZigZag's 

This is the same bearish pattern we've seen the Dow trade into.


If think that's and outrageously bearish outlook, "you ain't seen nothing yet".
This update ran past the opening bell, but looks like we didn't miss anything.
Take Care, AA

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