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Monday, February 13, 2017

Market update - stocks rise with the full moon

The SPX took out Friday's revised (tweeted) target of 2317.50. Wave 5's can fall short of the previous highs (in wave 3), but truncated fifths are pretty rare. Nevertheless it's something you need to be aware of, so you're no left holding the bag, if the market reverses at a lower high.

Key support on the DOW becomes 20,200.

This week: Watch for markets to consolidate sideways, to down, in a triangle in wave iv of 5 (marked "4" on the chart below) I'd get aggressively short here ahead of OPEX, but only if you're nimble.

This week is OPEX, and next week is truncated thanks to presidents day. Perfect time to consolidate in wave 4, however it looks like $SOX wants to bounce back, after last weeks pullback. May also get a rally in $NatGas.

The $RUT led this rally, and as I've said before that's where you normally see the risk off trade begin.  We haven't seen it, yet.
Short term support looks like 1387, and 1377.

$SOX pulled back further than expected. You may have been lucky enough to the top of the larger pattern, but the best time to sell is when support breaks, as we saw on $SOX last week. Expecting little pullback here, before $SOX rallies - into OPEX - back to the top of the larger pattern.

$INTC is one to watch in the Semiconductor space:

$TXN is another one to watch, or place short term bullish calls on. Could even see higher highs on this one in a few months. 

 Oil took out the target at the top of the range. I wouldn't be betting on a breakout any time soon.

$NatGas continues to consolidate. May finally find a bullish trade there.

Energy looks like it wants to break out above 602 resistance on the $DJUSEN. You can find the energy charts in the last update.

The $NYSE has traded into a contracting triangle. The same pattern I spotted on the $SPX on Friday, but that can be attributed to a throw-over (false breakout) in wave 5. That makes me nervous, and to add to that nervousness, the $VIX held the previous low.

In short: I'm short term bearish, long term bearish, intermediate term bullish.

lots to watch this week.
Good luck Traders

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