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Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Time to regroup and focus on today's trade - energy in focus

Time to regroup

Dow ended down 100, while several sectors ended in the green. Even the $NYSE ended in the green, so I have to ask myself "what gives"?
This led me to my energy folder:

  1. "Commodities and Energy led the pullback" - according to Bloomberg.
  2. Oil isn't broken, as I pointed out on Monday.
  3. Fed Reports today, and that's usually a buy signal as fear wanes (watch the $VIX).
  4. The bulls are still in love with energy and money must be put to work...
This market can be a bit of a shell game, but it's just a matter of finding the rubber ball.

I'll let the $SPX Energy chart speaks for itself:

I'm not as keen on Oil which has continued to trade sideways into a contracting sideways triangle (range), with $WTI crude holding above 52.22 support, and more support @ 51.30 at the bottom triangle line. It's pinned for now, but underlying energy stocks can rally, ahead of oil. Perhaps energy continues to consolidate with oil, ahead of the next OPEX? The only time line I can give is a breakout (or down), before the apex of the triangle. One think for sure, if after all this sideways consolidation, Oil is setting up for another big move. 

As for the rest of the market: 

I continue to like Biotech, and we saw it up almost 3% yesterday, on an otherwise meh day. Support is 2794. Res 3000.

Looks like I got $AAPL earnings right - up 4.8% this morning on a crawl-back into my bullish channel. I only hope others are betting against my charts, because the more idiot retail shorts covering their bearish bets, the better lol  

If you happened to be watching my twitter feed around lunch time, I called the top on the $VIX. Cha Ching! It was a good day, to not get overly bearish. 
Resistance @ 12.60, 13, and 13.28 - Support around the previous low around 11. The $VIX remains relatively low, so no fear. 

The S&P: The lower blue line on yesterday's triangle pattern held. That becomes support - 2277.50

I came up with an alternate pattern on the DOW, yesterday. That's getting ahead of myself, but time will tell...

Bell rings in 1 min. 
Take Care Traders

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