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Thursday, February 23, 2017

Market update 2/23/17

I remain short term bearish, but raising my intermediate term (2 month) target.  Still expecting a major correction longer term, but may not see that until after OPEX Monday April 17th.

$SPX Top of the broadening pattern raised to a 2400 target. Support 2325 - at the thin blue line, at the pink support lines.  So I'm basically predicting that the market chops around in the top of this range, while the powers that be build some fat short positions. March is a big window dressing month, and then we have the Easter break, leading into April OPEX. We may see a sector rotation around the same time, but we're getting ahead of ourselves. Major tops are rounded - they take time.  

There's a chance momentum carries us to the top of the pattern ahead of March OPEX, but I doubt that. We need to see a shakeout, accompanied by a good amount of bearishness first. imho  
$SPX 5 min chart - I thought we might have seen a short term top yesterday, but we're only consolidating in a range. This could continue today. Seeing futures only up slightly. 

Trend has been to squeeze the shorts into the weekend, and into the following mutual fund Monday. Timing depends on when the lower channel line is retested, and wave 5's tend to be slow movers (in this case minuete wave v of 3).  

If the market breaks out at the open, the upper pink line becomes support. If we continue to trade flat, expect a break out tomorrow - Friday. Watch for an update from my twitter @3Xtraders 

That's about all the time I have, but we're also watching gold miners, NatGas, and 
money continues to flow into utilities as predicted last week. 

#NATGAS - This is the weekly chart, but NATGAS ended on a doji reversal candle on Wed. Futures should be up, but I haven't had time to check. 

Key support on the $GDX is right here, at the pink line 

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