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Friday, July 19, 2019

Market Update 7/19/2019 - The Week In Review

Announcements: I'm still locked out of my Twitter account, so I can't provide updates on the fly.
Support is non existent, and unless you have a phone number associated with your account, it's a real PITA to get your account back.

Watch the short term $SPX chart, for intra-day updates, in the annotations. Refresh your screen often, especially when when the market is moving, or you see me "Charting in real time".

Major Malfunction: After finishing up yesterday's update, I discovered the Public Charts area wasn't even public, so Wednesday was a total waste of time, and energy. At least I got it back up in time for yesterday's trade, which turned out to be a monster!

Yesterday's reversal: It was incredible, and coincided with the bottom in Oil, which I also nailed perfectly! Then news breaks - that we shot down an Iranian drone - to confirm what I was seeing on the chart. Uncanny!

$SPX - yesterday's short covering rally almost made up for the lack of clarity of the past week.
Until a down-trend is established it's hard to get short.... but by yesterday's open the trend had become clear, and the breakout was obvious. 

In hind sight, even after getting bearish on Tuesday, I was apparently not bearish enough. I think I was little distracted this week, with setting up the public charts area, and the volume has been light, but I think I can do better....

Calling tops and bottoms has become somewhat routine, but even after 10+ years of this, it's not easy trading into a reversal, and picking a pullback target, especially when markets tend to overshoot, and you got machines buying moving averages, and such.

If you think equities are hard to predict, try Gold & Silver and the Miners!

$GDX - I'm still seeing a broadening pattern, and a major bottom around this time next year, which lines up pretty well for a major top in equities, but we I think won't know for a couple more weeks.
If the Fed drops the ball again, it could be a game changer for metals.     

Short term outlook is somewhat bearish. I think we can hold up today, and trade up into a range, going into the Fed, but  I think this weeks pullback was the beginning of a larger correction


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