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Saturday, July 20, 2019

Market Update 7/20/2019 - A Look At The Week Ahead

It was kind of a stressful week, and still getting caught up today, Saturday. 

It was a wild OPEX Friday, starting with a higher high (off Thursdays bottom), followed by a pulled back to a higher low, and that's bullish. $VIX also ended below the previous high of 14.48, so we're not seeing much fear in the market. Unless the market can start making lower lows, then I'm going to remain bullish going into the The Fed announcement, at the end of the month.

The public charts area has been updated,

 and I've switched out the 1 min. chart for a 5 minute chart.

$SPX 5 min: Watch for another breakout to the upside Monday morning, unless it continues to consolidate (bullish), below my red line. That would push-back the breakout until Technical Tuesday.

Friday's action was more about Options Expiration, than anything. Bloomberg was seen reporting - BREAKING NEWS - that Iran has seized a British oil tanker, and that helped ensure that the retail bulls would not get paid on their bullish Call Options.

This is what happens when you hammer down the $VIX, instead of buying insurance... Complacency can be a dangerous thing, and bad things come when you least expect them.

The main reason for this update is to get you focused on the longer term, instead of a 1 min chart, which I've had to switch out in the middle of the afternoon, 2 days in a row now, because after a few hours of volatile trading the chart is a complete and total mess. I've gone to a 5 min chart view, hoping that solves the problem, but the 1 - 5 minute charts, are for day traders, and more for entertainment purposes than anything else.

If you trade on a longer term basis, you need to follow the longer term charts, and not worry about 100 point swings on the DOW, or whether or not "stocks maintained their 3 day winning streak", or , "stocks ended down for the week". This kind of reporting is a distraction from reality, and meant to keep people watching cable news, for rating ratings.

This brings me to the next chart - The DJIA daily candlestick chart:

As you can see on the above chart, the market has hardly moved over the past week, and continues to hold up in the top of the range, above my thin blue line. This chart isn't available in the public charts area, because unless folks care enough to follow this blog, they don't deserve the best charts I have to offer. That goes for the $VIX charts as well. Why should I give it all away for free?

$VIX continues to trend lower

,and as long as that continues, the "no fear" trade, as I like to call it, is on.

If you'd like a copy of my short term $VIX chart, and personalized charts, and updates, for 30 days, make a donation of $100. I'll even show you where the next major market correction is going to take place, and that could save you a bundle! Here's a link to my Paypal, if you're interest.

SILVER: Almost broke the stop hunt on Friday, but that never happens on the first test of key support. Dip buyers always come in, so I'm expecting a nice 2 - 3 rally. It may even continue to hold up into the Fed.

SLV - This is the 30 min from the public charts area

Silver contracts expired on Friday, and that's something you definitely want to keep in mind, when trading commodities. Equities markets are all about Options Expiration, and commodities are about contract expiration.

Good luck this week, Traders 


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