Thursday, September 12, 2019

Market Update 9/12/2019 - Wackamole

There's a lot going on this morning, and lately I just don't have much time to spend playing whackamole.  

Trump puts off trade tariffs, as a good-will gesture. We saw short capitulation in AH trading on that news. Funny, when Trump tweets China tariffs, he's blamed for 1000 point declines, yet when he postpones China Tariffs, the $SPX is only up 3 handles (in pre-market)? Tells me that either the (leaked) news has already been priced in, or that "good news is bad news", as the The Fed rate decision draws near. Meaning that if China trade isn't an immediate threat, then there's no reason for the FOMC to take further action.

China Trade War -  Everyone knows China is cheating, by shipping Chinese goods to Taiwan, or wherever else, and stamping it, "Made in Taiwan", and this helps explain the massive move we've seen in the Baltic Dry Index. Funny Bloomberg doesn't report that, and I can't wait to see what excuse they use for the next market sell-off?    

ECB just came out dovish, and that's providing fuel for the snap-back rally in precious metals.

This calls for a commodities sidebar: 


$GLD - Got this one right



Energy held up, despite the reversal in Oil, but we did see the rats scurry from the energy trade, back into tech. The market is pumped, and dumped one sector at the time, and yesterday it was the Russell's turn....  The $RUT chart has been a struggle, so I'm going to see if I can get a better handle on it this morning, in the time I have left. Lately I only have an hour or 2 to chart, and that just doesn't cut it.  

$OIl - Called this one right


Getting back to the $RUT: 

JP Morgans ridiculous call for investors to move into "Value Stocks", also helped the $RUT, and coincided with a breakout above the 50 day ma. Think this wasn't planned? Must be nice to control the news cycle!

 
 I have a $RUT chart in the public charts area, but let's draw up a fresh DCS chart:
1. Trend remains down. 



$RUT - looks like (short) capitulation, at a slightly lower $RVX low - followed by a reversal on that indicator.

$RVX - There's an anomaly on this chart  I've been wanting to document, and this is the perfect opportunity! Why was it down for a week?!

Anyhow 18.70 is the (fear) pivot. Expect it to remain pinned at the top of the range, for a day at least. Friday should be interesting, and at least volume has picked up!

 


$SPX - I found this alternative sideways pattern, on the S&P yesterday afternoon, and raised the target to coincide with another The FED disappointment. I keep raising targets, but the fact that the market continues to inch up is no surprise. I don't really like this alternative sideways pattern, but we did see Oil hold up in a range for a couple years, before it crashed back to earth. I prefer the broadening triangle pattern, but that's going to break the long term charts, so I'm keeping this sideways range, option, open.


$SPX DCS Chart #2 - They drove it to 3000, a psychological target, but it looks slightly overbought to me. Can it hold up into the The Fed? Probably not. Into OPEX? I don't think so. This is dumb money chasing the market up here.



Everyone is expecting the market to break out to new highs, but watch for the market to sell-off, as the $VIX breaks out above 15.

$VIX - reversal coming. 


The $VIX never lies, and I'm sure the algos have already been loaded.... 

Take Care
AA

P.S. OH ONE MORE THING!

The Apple news: Every insider, and his brother, knew the iPhone 11, and Apple TV was coming.
$AAPL managed to break out to a slightly higher high, just above the 220, so watch for investors to run for the exits below that level.  


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