Monday, September 9, 2019

Market Update 9/9/2019 - It's All About China

I started this blog on Friday, and what I saw was most every 50 day moving average being tested, as I think I mentioned in the last update, so that's obvious support. 

$FXI - China (FXI) is also testing the 50 day, and you can clearly see the breakout on this chart.


I added another FXI chart to the Public Charts area, showing that it may be trading in a sideways range, but I'm uncertain which pattern is correct.

Germany also broke out above the 50 day, as did US markets, but I don't see this as bullish. 

I think volatility is here to stay, and although certain indices are trading only a couple percent below their all time highs, I'm going to remain bearish. 

I see futures up this morning, but let's say the $SPX tests the 2992 level at the open? Then I believe it needs to back-test the (rigged) breakout point, where they raised the bid in the futures markets.This low volume rally looks like just another pump n' dump opportunity for the market manipulators.



$DJIA - The Dow 50 day ma is the stop hunt, at 26,550. This is the same chart you can find in the Public Charts area.



Many Elliotticians think we're in wave 3 (bullish), because the market made a higher high in June, and that's what I was thinking at the time, but a higher high isn't always bullish, as you an  see on the $DAX chart below.

$DAX - Comparing the US June breakout to the July breakout on the $DAX - the higher high in July was followed by a 5 month low - ruling out a bullish wave 3. 


 Germany has a trade surplus with China, by the way!

One more thing.... Last week: I published my updated chart of the Baltic Dry Index, and asked why it's up so much?  The only reason it's up is that ship have been taken off line, because they need to be retrofitted for cleaner fuels, and this is going to kill an already dying commodities market, in my opinion.

Shipping’s Great Fuel Switch Is Starting to Drive Up Freight Costs

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