Can The Trend In Gold Continue?
I've noticed I've been getting a lot of searches for "3XTraders outlook on gold", so I though it would be good to update Gold! I also get a lot of hits on my "how to cut a mango", video, on YouTube, and based on the number of views, cutting up fruit is way more popular, than market timing.
$GOLD - Looking at the long term trend on Gold, it's been in a bear market for 7 years, and as they say, "the trend is your friend. Trends tend to continue, and I believe the gold market is still in a corrective pattern, after the massive rally which ended in 2011. ! It's been holding up at resistance for a month, as the smart money takes profits, and I suppose it could hold up above the 1358 level, into the end of the year. You can find this chart along with all my other free Pubic Charts, at this link.
I'm not a gold bug, but I understand the inherent value of gold. Fiat money eventually always does go to zero, but Gold never will. It's good to own some gold, and or Silver. coins, just in case... but I can't see buying gold at these levels. Commodities tend to return to the mean, and - historically - for gold that's more like the $300 range...
I also believe, "every asset class loses value in a deflationary cycle".
I think a lot of the recent panic buying in Oil has to do with the believe that JP Morgan's manipulation of the metals market, over the past 8 years - is the reason why metals haven't performed up to the gold bugs expectations.
This really is what the catalyst is/was, as laid out in the video below.
Looking at the broader market
Yesterday's trade on the $SPX was choppy, and to be honest, if I hadn't been charting the close I would have had a hard time staying bullish! If you were watching me chart the close in real time, you saw me redraw my trend line, and go from bearish, to bullish, in the final minutes. Not easy! Especially when the 5 minute DOW chart remains in a bearish pattern.
There's a lot that goes into my expert analysis, and I've spent years perfecting my technique, but unless you have the time to chart several things at once, in real time, it's impossible to be consistent. I know a lot of folks want future predictions, but you need to trade the market you see, and what we've seen over the past week is the market continues to hold up, into the end of this window dressing quarter, on the last Friday of the month. I can't even tell you how long this continues, but the $VIX remains below 17.50, and as long as that continues, the market is going to continue to hold up.
Yesterday morning, we got a pullback from resistance, but no fear. I thought we might see panic, going into the close, but no fear.
$SPX 1 min chart: This looks pretty much like the 5 min chart in my public charts area, but I've added some annotation, so show you where we've been over the past week, and where yesterday's pullback ended - at the top of the previous channel in black, and the current trend - in purple. I believe the 3007 level is the number to watch, and if I can find some time to do some more charting, I'll have a better idea before the weekend.
One more thing: In yesterday's update, I called out Netflix, and later in the day I alerted to $AMZN on my 5 min chart. Looks like it's whipsawed into a broadening triangle. I like the 1860 target going into Oct. OPEX.
Market just opened, so I gotta run.
Have a great weekend, Traders
AA
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