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Thursday, September 5, 2019

Market Update 9/5 - The Rally To Nowhere

I made some good progress on my side projects yesterday, and up early, so I thought I'd do a quick update. This is what I like to do in my spare time.

This is a relief rally of some sort? I suppose on good new out of Hong Kong, China, and Brexit... and a good excuse to squeeze the retail short sellers into another Weekly OPEX, but then what? 

The $DAX continues to lead - as usual. Seeing a gap fill target there - around the 12120 level. ST support becomes the 50 day ma, until they pull the rug out again.

 $DJIA - gapped up above the 26,200 level, and probably want's to test the 50 day, and close just above it. Note the smaller broadening pattern (range) we've been watching develop for a couple weeks.

 $SPX - The top of the range looks like 2961ish. I've been pointing to this number for weeks, and this just happens to be exactly, where futures are trading this morning.   If this is bearish consolidation in wave B - and I believe it is - I like the 2600 target in wave C, maybe as soon as Oct. 

We also see the $SPY breaking out above the 50 day, and the bulls are used to returning from vacation, hammering down the $VIX, and driving the retail short sellers out. They're like spoiled children who are used to getting their own way, but fast money in, fast money out.

So expect the $SPX to hold the 50 day, going into the weekend. This is going to ensure that the bulls get paid on weekly OPEX. Then watch for the rug to get pulled again, probably in AH trading, and as soon as next week.

The NASDAQ still had to trade back to the top of the range, and in the meantime; if you're looking for a bullish tech trade, try $NFLX bouncing off the bottom of the bullish channel. How predictable it that?!

Russia, NATGAS, all up big as predicted  #ChaChing!

$BDI - One more thing I wanted to draw attention to is the massive move in the Baltic Dry Index. I called this trade out when I was still on Twitter. If you have twitter you can search "@3XTraders Baltic", for the exact date.... but what's behind this massive move? Is someone stockpiling commodities, and if so, why...? It's a little disconcerting!

As I mentioned yesterday, I'll provide future updates when I can find the time, but I have a lot on my plate right now, and just don't have the time to babysit this market. I updated the 5 min chart at yesterdays open, let the charts refresh while I was away, and updated the 5 min chart again after lunch. I'll probably do the same today

Take Care,

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