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Thursday, November 11, 2021

Market Update 11/11/21 - Yesterday's trade could not have gone better!

 After laying out our $VIX targets in yesterday's blog; the trading day started out kind of slow, as the $VIX continued to be sold at the 50 day moving average. I alerted to that fact in my twitter, and used this opportunity to get caught up on lost sleep. 

Fast forward to yesterday afternoon:  I wake up from a - 2 hour nap, eat a late lunch, and return to my trading desk around 2 PM CST; just in time to update the charts, and take profits on my long $VIX trade, which I let run all week, as well as some short bets. I was lucky enough to be short oil and gas producers during the entire route in Nat Gas.  

This morning we see the market rallying into Veterans Day as predicted, with of course Tech leading. 

I kind of like Natural Gas on this weakness, as Lukashenko threatens to cut off Europe's Gas supply. See 

You sanction us again? We’ll freeze you, Lukashenko warns Europe, threatening to cut gas supply. The Washington Post (link) 

Russia also sent 2 nuclear bombers to the boarder to back up those threats. Hopefully our cognitively challenged counterfeit president, doesn't do anything stupid. 

$UNG  (US Nat Gas fund) - I can't seem to find the lower end of the pattern on the $UNG, but I'm leaning towards a powerful Wave C in a declining and expanding triangle - aka a down-turned megaphone pattern. Perhaps I'm a little early calling this. Watch the 16.50 level, if we're not off to the races this morning. Could see another 3-4% washout, ahead of the weekend. 

And don't count on me adding that chart back to the public charts area. least until I know it's working. 

One trade I forgot to mention was the spectacular $EURO/ $GBP trade I called out a couple weeks ago! That chart has since been removed from the public chart area, after taking out the 200 day ma. Now it's since bounced off the 50 day ma. 

I think few people who are following me, even trade currencies, but these are important things to watch nonetheless. 

 I'll trade anything that moves faster than the $SPX. How many traders missed out on the bitcoin boom, while trying to time tiny moves on the $SPY? 

We saw the $USD retest the recent highs, along with gold. Something has to give, since metals are priced in US dollars. 

Could it be the news coming out of Europe that caused Gold (priced in Euros to rally)?  

$GPX - Watch for a nasty bearish reversal in metals - from rare earth metals, to Uranium, to gold.  

I'm out of time! 

And have a great rest of the week, 


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