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Monday, November 8, 2021

Market Update 11/8/23 - A Look At The Elliott Wave Patterns, and the Week Ahead

Thursday 11/11/21 is Veteran's Day, and even though there is trading that day, expect light volume, and low volatility. Treat it like holiday trading; should be boring, and heavily manipulated. The bulls can just walk the market where ever they like, as they can continue to hammer the $VIX.  

$VIXY - you can see where this $VIX indicator was held below the lower end of the pattern. Pure manipulation. Of course the market remained weak throughout the day on a higher $VIX. Today the market should be up.  


 Friday we saw Natural Gas sell-off at the 20 day moving average, and bottom out about before the market closed. That trade sure beat chasing overbought stocks, in a market bubble. Today we see Nat Gas pinned between the 20 day, and the 50 day. If you're nimble you might want to try selling the 20 day again. 

I heard it being reported that some hedge funds lost a lot of money betting against the bond market last week, while I enjoyed a nice rally in ?US Treasuries. I win!   


Government-Bond Swings Burn Wall Street Investors (WSJ) 

This week, since I expect trading to be slow,  I've added a few 60 min. Elliott Wave Charts to the Public Charts area. The 15 min charts, just haven't been preforming that well, except for the one - the QQQ - (NASDAQ).  

$QQQ - trading in a bullish channel for the past 3 weeks. This is wants to retest the highs one more time, before pulling back.  

I'm also going to add a 60 min NASDAQ chart, since the 10 min chart is expected to break. 
Looks like, and counts like a broadening top, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the market give back all the gains of the past few weeks, and fill the gap.... 

As far as the Elliott Wave Count: Most traders are expecting a little pullback in wave 4 followed by a final rally into Nov. OPEX, and I've annotated the $NYSE chart to reflect that, but most charts do not agree, as you'll see when you compare one chart to another.  

$NYSE - Wave 4 pullbacks often trade sideways, and end up being complicated. Not good trading anyhow. 

Also see the stophunt on the QQQ, just below 390, even though I don't expect that to break this week

May be a good idea to sit on your hands for a couple days, and wait for a pattern to develop. 

Good Luck this week, AA 

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