Ever notice how the market can't pull back unless futures markets are manipulated?
And the same goes for snap-back rallies, like the one we saw yesterday. Futures were pumped ahead of the open, and markets rallied straight into the close.
This seems to be the case, 99% of the time, as most gains, and losses, aren't had during normal trading hours, but rather in the middle of the night (US Time). This is great if you trade futures markets, but sadly, most of us don't....
When was the last time you saw a bearish, or bullish, reversal, during normal trading hours? Yeah, like never! Even breaking news seems to have little effect on markets, until after hours. I sometimes call this the "delayed news effect", but the idea that market reactions would be delayed, by more than 20 minutes, just doesn't make sense.
This all goes back to what I was talking about, a few weeks ago, about Germany leading the US, and operation paperclip, having a lot to do with that.
US futures manipulation obviously starts overnight, in Europe, so we're going to continue to get ahead of the trade, by analyzing foreign markets.
In Saturday's update. I mentioned the "STOXX 50" index, but I think we may be better off using the $DAX as a guide, for US market direction. 1. I know it's a reliable indicator, and don't try to fix what's not broken, right? 2. I have to rely on an ETF, to chart the $STOXX, and I'm not sure how reliable that is.
The STOXX is still a good indicator, and worth watching, but it looks like the 50 week ma, has already been taken out.
Support at the lower end of the - expanding triangle - pattern - seen on the chart below - @ $4000. I doubt that target is taken out in a straight line, unless this is a broadening top, and it's completed. I believe this is only wave 4, as you'll see some of my charts have already been annotated. I just don't bother taking the time to annotate Elliott Wave patterns like I used to.
Watch the $DAX!
$DAX Watch for a bullish back-test of the 50 week moving average, which is trading today at 15,129.87. I would also watch the 15,000 level, since that's a big psychological support level, as well as clear technical support, back in 2021. Also notice the obvious pullback target, on the covid hysteria, and the massive broadening top pattern on this 12 year chart.
China!
China has continued to sell off since the last time I mentioned it, but I'm kind of liking it here.
$FXI - The chart speaks for itself, and the holidays is not a good time to be shorting anything, including China. Looking for the $FXI to rally, off this gap fill target, and back to the top of the range.
Yesterday's Trade
I tied to warn folks yesterday, that if they had missed the boat - on yesterday's rally - to sit on their hands, rather than chase it, and in hindsight, we're obviously not "off to the races", yet....
Oil and energy was sold, not tech, so those who rushed in to buy the already overinflated,
"Cramer bubble", may be in for a rude awakening!
Most everything else you need was tweeted out yesterday, and pinned to my twitter main page:
Taking A Close Look At The Black Friday Pullback https://t.co/fm6jCGdDq8
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) November 29, 2021
If you missed yesterday's updates, just go to the one embedded above - in twitter - and scroll through the updates I added during the day. There is a ton of valuable information there, so much so, that I'm a little surprised at the lack of donations being made, to help support my work.
Look, I even give out $VIX targets, like the one below, and don't even get so much as thank you.
$VVIX - was hammered back below res. on Monday. Market will sell-off above 135. Res. looks like around 155.
Good luck, AA
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